Sunday, September 23, 2007

The events are developing, as mentioned, but without the sequence of dates as forecasted.
The low has become a depression and crossed Orissa on Saturday, pouring very heavy rain( 27 cms. at Athagarh in Orissa, and several places with rain between 14-24 cms in Orissa).
It is now moving North-West. Today, Sunday evening it lies centered over Orissa and adjoining Chattisgarh.( Heavy rain has been recoreded in Kolkata at 13 cms.). THe depression is likely to move North-West before interacting with the approaching W.D.

The Arabian Sea low has formed today. It, on the contrary has "sort of" interacted with the prevailing W.D. today and has formed a corridor of scattered rain north-south along western India/Pakistan border earliar than estimated by me.(NCEP colour image).

The Arabian Sea low is forecasted by the JTWC and the IMD to intensify. JTWC estimates a cyclone formation chance.
This is to be watched closely.

The result: A delay by a few more days in the widhrawal of the monsoon. The current depression will have to "rain out", and then the formation of the anticyclone can form over Rajasthan.
The last date for the monsoon to start widhrawal from Rajasthan, as of now, is 28th. September 197o. Will this year be a new record for the start of widhrawal ?

Rain will naturally be spread out over the states of M.P, Chattisgarh, east U.P. because of the depression. And over north India, specially Uttaranchal getting a heavy dose, due to the "interaction". West coast can get rain along with the Gujarat coast, if the Arabian Sea low intensifies.

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