Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The south west monsoon has dug in with good rains over Maharashtra, A.P. and the south east parts of India yesterday and today. Yes, it has put its withdrawal schedule on waiting. This is due to yesterdays low pressure in the bay and the trough along the west coast forming a weak low along the Maharashtra coast. Even though the bay low has weakened into an "Upper Air Circulation", another low is forecasted to form around the 21st.

With the formation of this new low in the bay, the existing monsoon low over Rajasthan will slip a bit southwards, and the two lows will be the western and eastern ends of the monsoon trough, along the central region of India.
As a result, it can be mentioned, that the monsoon trough will slip southwards.
Along the west coast, the off shore trough will lead the wind flow to get organised, and form a new low over the North Arabian Sea by this week end.
The NCEP and ECMWF have forecasted for" wet conditions" returning to the west coast and central India till next week.

This will result in Mumbai and west Maharashtra geting heavy rain on this week end.Mumbai can get upto 75mms on Sat or Sun.

Thus, a wet spell can be expected from now for a week all over Maharashtra, A.P. and the north coastal Tamil Nadu.

This over active phase of the bay is a result of a constant feed from the South China Sea, due to a steady line of typhoons. From the monsoon point, these systems have a cascading impact on the "pulse" and Low formations in the Bay of Bengal.

In the North, an approaching W.D. is forecasted to dip south, and in all probabilities inter-act with the remants of the Arabian Sea low.This should happen around the start of the week begining 24th. Rain from this event can cover the Saurashtra region,Gujarat, north west India, Delhi, and west M.P. from next week.

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The approaching weather for Mumbai looks quite ominous with a Depression being forecasted in the North Arabian sea off the Mumbai coast by Sunday. Jim's blog suggests that there would be 'Excessive' falls over the weekend / next week in and around Mumbai. I would think Mumbai will recieve around 200+ mms of rain over Sat / Sun / Mon. All in all a very unsettled time for Mumbai. By the way Alibag go 330 mms of rain yesterday. Weird things continue this Monsoon!!

Ashok Patel said...

Mumbai will receive 200 MM plus rain during 19th to 25th September. Maximum intensity 24th & 25th September.