Friday, September 28, 2007

With the rain bearing systems withering away, the process of the monsoon widhrawal has started , after a 3 weeks lag, as the initial widhrawal from the extreme west of India should have started from the 1st. September.
However, the lag may be reduced, judging from the current outlook. The 1st. Oct normal widhrawal line covers the areas north of Maharashtra, and west M.P. and western half of U.P. However, this alignment of monsoon termination line could be reached by the 7/8th. Oct. this year.
With the two existing systems over east India and the west coast weakening, and becoming less marked, the widhrawal phase of the monsoon is set to resume, as mentioned earlier.

Even though an "upper Air Circulation" is predicted by several models in the bay around the 1st. Oct, it is not expected to gain too much, and may not offer much resistance to the forward thrust of the anti-cyclone dry air winds pushing from the west.( IMD map shows the westward thrust of dry air)

Hence, in the first week of October, Eastern India will be witnessing pockets of thundershowers in places, and many areas of the southern region too cannot miss out on the popping up of convective thunder showers, squeezed southwards. Progressive drying up of the north, northwest will reach the south Gujarat coast.

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