Sunday, August 05, 2012

Fantastic Maharashtra Toppers from Pradeep:  1st Aug-6th August..Inter Active Page..

Mumbai Page updated with Tuesday Morning rainfall with estimate comparisons.

Drought affected regions of India (as on 5th August ) map on Current Weather Page ...
Mumbai Lakes Storage as on 6th August put up on Mumbai Page...

The current UAC moves inland over Orissa and is tracking Westwards. 

As the UAC extends from 850 hpa to 500 hpa levels, the clouding in the S/SW quadrant is fairly strong and effective. 
UAC will track westwards and fizzle out by Wednesday,8th. (Weak MJO does not sustain any system for long).



Monday 6th/Tuesday 7th: Rainfall moves into Chattisgarh and adjoining East Vidarbha. Vidharbha and adjoining Marathwada and adjoining MP may get good precipitation. Parts of Northern AP too can expect good showers. 
Nagpur gets heavy rains on Monday/Tuesday. Rain Amount : 50-60 mms.

Relief for flooded rivers of UP as the rainfall in UP and Utteranchal decreases drastically.(flooding was predicted in vagaries' forecast last week). 

Delhi NCR sees no significant increase in rainfall  on Mon/Tues/Wed. Days will be around 35c.

West coast off shore trough, presently very weak (Sunday), just gets a little temporary "lift" on Tuesday, specially off the South Konkan coast, as the trough strengthens "aloft' (700 hpa).

Wednesday 8th: The rain area moves west, and diminishes in area. The heavy rain concentration will be at the meeting point of Maharashtra, Gujarat and MP. Heavy rain in North Maharashtra, adjoining SE Gujarat, and south Rajasthan.
Surat and Bharuch will get good rains on Tuesday night/Wednesday. Surat can get upto 25 mms.
But, west trough backtracks again, and rains remain weak along the entire west coast.

South India remains in the same "phase", with local convection pockets of heavy showers. 
From Wednesday, 8th, an easterly pulse could move in, embedded with an UAC, and precipitate rains commencing from the TN coast inland. 
Much needed rain may greet the TN and adjoining Kerala areas on Wed/Thursday.
Chennai sees a slight increase in rains after Thursday.

Mumbai: 
Monday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Not persistent, but a couple of them could be heavy in bursts and in some areas. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy, with rainfall decreasing. Rain Amount: Upto 10 mms/day.

Pune: Partly cloudy, more sunny on Wednesda, as days will rise to 30c. Rain amounts : 3-5 mms/day.

Pakistan: A WD moving across extreme North Pakistan has interacted with the Easterlies from "above" the axis and brought heavy rains in Northern Pakistan. Vagaries had predicted heavier than normal rains for North Pakistan in its seasonal and monthly forecast. Figures like 139 mms in Islamabad yesterday, and Guranwala got 123 mms yesterday and 83 mms today. Lahore got 79 mms yesterday and 47 mms today. Rawal pndi got 75 mms yesterday.
Rains decrease from Monday 6th in the North.
Very light rains are likely next 3 days in parts of Sindh. Sukkur may get a dust storm or thundersquall.



Week's Analysis of All India Rainfall by GSB on Inter Active Page..must Read.




53 comments:

GSB said...

Thanks for this week's analysis Rajseh sir!

By the way anybody interested in cathing live the Mars landing can go to

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

I believe they are going to cover live the landing and audio of mission control.. If there is any other site that somebody is aware of please let us all know..

Really hope to see this historic event live tomorrow....!!!!!

GSB said...

The landing should be around 11am Monday IST.

That's T minus 11 hours....

Anonymous said...

Extremely heavy rain in some parts of karnataka and good rains in the western parts of state as mentioned by pradeep, are these rains caused by UAC, why these were not forecasted like each and every blog even this blog is also neglecting the southern state

Anonymous said...

heavy rains in Karnataka

Bisile, Kempuhole, Moorukannugudda, Kenchanakumari and the Bajemane reserve forest received 600 mm of rainfall in the last 36 hours. Schools and colleges have declared a holiday in the taluk.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/269492/rain-pounds-malnad-coast.html

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur received light to medium short spells through out the day. So in past 24hrs, 12mm rain measured here.(i.e yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Shitij said...

No rain in Surat. Today cloud cover has become more thinner as compared to yesterday.

rajesh said...

shitij: Wait for Tuesday night/Wednesday..

Vijayanand said...

Quoting from Pradeep's analysis from Kea site:

Thanks Predeep for the stats:

Nagara in Karnataka records 746 mm rainfall in 2 days
———————–
Nagara located in Hosanagara Taluk in Shimoga District in Karnataka recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs. Hulikal, the king of South India is located just 15kms from Nagara. It is the only place after Cherrapunji to record two 300+ mm rainfall in 2012. Hulikal figures is not published daily by IMD.

Here is the comparison of rainfall between Agumbe, Kollur and Nagara in last two days

Nagara – 746 mm
05.08.2012 – 437 mm
04.08.2012 – 309 mm

Kollur – 205 mm
05.08.2012 – 115 mm
04.08.2012 – 90 mm

Agumbe – 185 mm
05.08.2012 – 119 mm
04.08.2012 – 66 mm

Vijayanand said...

Coastal Karnataka and Malnad regions are getting good rains for the last couple of days. Hope this continues.

rajesh said...

anonymous: BTW where are you from..there is no question of neglecting any region, or coastal Karnataka region. If there are readers from their, i shall surely put up my reports from any region..but as there was no feedback, i did not make an effort. To put up any estimate or report takes time and effort, and if there is viewership interest, i am also interested...be rest assured..Rajesh.
Vijayanand: The trough off the west coast strengthened as on Monday 5.30am off the karnataka and s.Konkan coast Depth at -40). A day earlier than expected by vagaries. Rainfall will be good on Monday..

Vijayanand said...

Rajesh,
Thanks for the data. Hope rain persists in Kerela , coastal Karnataka and Malnad hilly regions.

The bane of the year is the fact that the rainy spells were small. Hope the current spell can sustain itself for at least a week.

venkatesh said...

It is raining like hell in bangalore.May be best rain of the season

Pavan said...

Can't able to enjoy the weather or ths blog due to health problems good thick clouds in pune from last evening with some drizzle, raining very well in southkokan coastal and int karnataka westmp i do kno when is pune's chance hope its very near in a day or two as nights are getting warmer compared to earlier weeks

Vijayanand said...

Yep! its raining in bangalore. In South Bangalore we received moderate rains for 15-20 minutes. I am referring to Jayanagar , JP Nagar, BTM Layout area. Not sure about central and East bangalore.

sset said...

Vijay- to tide away drought and water crisis bangalore / interior karnataka is facing - it needs atleast 300mm of non-stop rain - ground water is zero!!!

5-10 minutes of slight rain will do no good - ofcourse atleast gives water to dying plants/trees.
We are unable to do any plantation because of no water.


Correct as Anonymous said...
North East Monsoon is quite erratic. Last 4 years have been normal. Before that as Kea shared in 8 years , 4 years monsoon failed. So you take last 4 years out, then its been 50% consistent. The biggest threat to NE monsoon is freak cyclone going north towards burma and bangladesh


Infact last year all lows due to NE monsoon went to Saudi Arabia!!!

Navi Mumbai very heavy rains - entire North Maharashtra (as Rajesh has shown in map - is in for deadly landfalls)

Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,

Third consecutive day of moderate rains around Chennai. The rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 06.08.2012 are as follows -

Ponneri – 10
Tamaraipakkam - 8
Madhavaram - 6
Uthukottai (Entry Point) – 6
Redhills – 5
Ennore - 3
Chembarbakkam – 3

Anonymous said...

wats the forcast for next 2 days for mumbai

Rajan Alexander said...

Rajesh,

Good show. Some of the readers may not simply understand how difficult it is administer a blog, leave alone weather forecasting by one person. There are limits one man can do, and it is important to all readers to appreciate that perhaps you are doing what the IMD or Skymet with much larger infrastructure, personnel and specialists.


Weather forecasting is a very difficult and time consuming art. A 60-70% success rate is extremely good by industry standards and I am glad to note as an amateur you are doing all of us proud by hitting this average.

rajesh said...

anonymous:Mumbai forecast for mon/tues/wed had been put up on the very page of your comment. Also see Mumbai page.
Rajan: Your words of encouragement holds immense weight and value for me. It is with reader's support and contributions from friends that keeps vagaries alive and interesting..
read about the hadicaps of the IMD...i've known this in persoanal interaction with them..
vijayanand: checked up on Bangalore, seems that some regions were devoid of rains..is that correct ?

Anonymous said...

Sir i was just galancing at the drought map and surprised to c that how drought and rain can differentiate the boundries, i can state an instance for example there is a taluka by name RAICHUR in karnataka which is sourrounded 3 sides by andhra pradesh and all the regns of ap namely mahbubnagar and kurnool and nt facing any drought but this taluka is drought affectd deficiency is upto -60%, i want to ask about bangladesh and burma(myanmar) what is the condition there because as per ur map the regions of india borderng like nagaland manipur mizoram are drought affectd but nt tripura and gangetic wb is drought affected.
Pavan

Abhijit Modak said...

Thank you very much Rajesh Sir for updated Barvi Dam figures as on 6 Aug 2012. Actually Barvi gets overflow by 15 Aug or even before as per previous records ! But this year slow monsoon or less rains in ghats in June & First half of July has delayed filling up of dam. Lets hope for some good amount of rain in mid August and dam should get at least full by August 30 .

Abhijit Modak said...

As gusty winds had slow down from yesterday so some increase in rain intensity noted here in Badlapur. So in past 24hrs, 40mm rain measured here(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am ). And I think as low moving in west direction or remaining stationery over West MP & Gujrat border for next 36hrs then that low may move towards North or NE dir , so in that period North Konkan can expect medium to heavy rain spells for next 48hrs period.

RK said...

nice morning rain in G.Noida... but stopped in half an hour....

Pradeep said...

Kitwade crosses 4000 mm for the SW monsoon 2012 ahead of Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur
------------------
The August rainfall in the past 6 days, from 1st August to 6st August, 2012, many places in Maharashtra has got very very heavy rainfall. Kitwade in Maharashtra crossed 4000 mm for SWM 2012 ahead of other heavy weights Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur. It is only the second station behin

Rainfall in mm (Min - 750 mm)

Kitwade - 1080 mm
01.08.2012 - 100
02.08.2012 - 110
03.08.2012 - 161
04.08.2012 - 283
05.08.2012 - 238
06.08.2012 - 188

Amboli - 865 mm
01.08.2012 - 52
02.08.2012 - 65
03.08.2012 - 228
04.08.2012 - 160
05.08.2012 - 175
06.08.2012 - 185

Mahabaleshwar - 841 mm
01.08.2012 - 244
02.08.2012 - 242
03.08.2012 - 131
04.08.2012 - 101
05.08.2012 - 42
06.08.2012 - 81

Mulshi Dam - 813 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 178
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 87
05.08.2012 - 76
06.08.2012 - 112

Shirgaon Ghat - 810 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 180
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 90
05.08.2012 - 70
06.08.2012 - 110

Tamini Ghat - 780 mm
01.08.2012 - 270
02.08.2012 - 200
03.08.2012 - 70
04.08.2012 - 120
05.08.2012 - 60
06.08.2012 - 60

The Top Maharashtra SWM rainfall places (minimum 3000 mm) till 6th August, 2012

Kitwade - 4161
Dajipur - 3644
Amboli - 3599
Patagon - 3598
Gaganbawada - 3496
Sangameshwar - 3449
Tamini Ghat - 3261
Kasari - 3210
Mulshi Dam - 3208
Shiragon Ghat - 3130
Mahabaleshwar - 3029
Dawadi - 3005

rajesh said...

abhijit: A little variation from my forecast for Tuesday from what you estimate -:)) Also our terminology of a "low" differs -:)

rajesh said...

pradeep: Fantastic station analysis of Maharashtra station rainfall..thanks for sharing..
you are our partner now -:))

Vijayanand said...

Rajesh,

Yesterdays rain was quite widespread. Bangalore South , Bangalore Central and Bangalore East got rains.

Appears like rains were quite good in some parts as reported by TV9. Today's Times of India newspaper also covered it. So not sure which place missed out yesterday.
But in july we saw decent rains in bangalore north, but bangalore south got nothing. Guess something is better than nothing :)

Vijayanand said...

Super rain yesterday in coastal karnataka and Malnad regions.

Kollur19
Kadra12
Nilkund10
Gorsoppa10
Subramanya10
Mani10
Jagalbet9
Bantwal8
Agumbe (EMO)16
Kamardi15
Thirthahalli15
Thalaguppa13
Sringeri (HMS)13
Saklespura11

Hope this continues for another week. Let rain god have some mercy.

Vijayanand said...

Sorry for the typo:

In cms
Kollur- 19
Kadra- 12
Nilkund- 10
Gorsoppa- 10
Subramanya- 10
Mani- 10
Jagalbet- 9
Bantwal- 8
Agumbe (EMO- )16
Kamardi1- 5
Thirthahalli- 15
Thalaguppa- 13
Sringeri (HMS)13
Saklespura- 11

Bhavik said...

Rajesh sir, has AS1 formed? Yesterday a low formed over Arabian sea at 0,55E and currently it is positioned at 0,60E, traveling eastwards and strengthening along the equator
Also it is assumed to traverse NE path further?

Pradeep said...

Vijay this is called super rains in Karnataka on 8.30 am 0n 06.08.2012

Birunani - 559 mm
Parakatageri - 508 mm
Teralu - 305 - mm

pavan said...

pradeep frm whr u got these figures please let me know the source can u get me all figures

pavan said...

if these places can record such an extreme rainfall in 24 hrs then why they are not listed in the map are, what is the total amount of rainfall for these places,can u please list out all those places with such a rainfall in karnataka

venkatesh said...

Hi Pradeep,

The places you mentioned are all in cauvery basin(In kodagu dist).
Is it yesterday's reading or today(07Aug) reading.Seems like Kodagu is recieving non-stop rains for past 3 days.Can you post the readings from Waynad as well.This is also one of the critical region for cauvery.I see vythri recorded 23cm today.

Vijayanand said...

Raining in south bangalore. But sky over north bangalore looks clear. Appears like only south bangalore areas are getting rain. Jaynagagar, JPNagar, HSR Layout have got rains. It rained moderately for 10 miniutes and then for another 10 minutes drizzled.

Vijayanand said...

KRS level is given as 89 feet in deccan herald. For the last 10 days no change.
With increased inflow, the level in KRS should be higher.Hope we can get updated information on KRS level.

venkatesh said...

It is 79,Not 89.May be kabini can fill up this week.Yesterday it was 7 feet lesser than maximum level

Rajan Alexander said...

The best rains for the season. Deficit now 17%.

El Nino - weakly positive
MJO - unfavourable
IOD - weakly positive

My reading is as follows:

a. IOD neutralizes El Nino
b. MJO phase trumps amplitude

Any one - reactions

rajesh said...

bhavik: No, there is no system in the Indian Ocean..Vagaries will be the first to inform you if any -:))

Rajan: Seems to tally with the august estimate...MJO weakening is the concern now...IOD/EL Nino link ?? Dont know ??

anonymous: the drought map i have given is on the scale of the "state ". If we magnify more, and go the "district" levels, then we may find a few districts varying with the overall state average...

emkay said...

Another global warming scare.Read here : http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/science/earth/extreme-heat-is-covering-more-of-the-earth-a-study-says.html?smid=fb-share

Bhavik said...

Thanks Rajesh sir for your explanation.
But still I would like to understand the formation of dense clouding over Arabian Sea at location 0,60E. What should we make out of this?
Also in this monsoon season for the first time I have seen such dense clouding (reference IMD satellite image 10.30 am today)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I am just trying my best on forecasting weather and as I am very fresher in forecasting so just concentrating only for North Konkan area for time being. And I am not against vagaries forecast but I am very proud of Vagaries as it has given me lot of knowledge on meteorology and still learning it. And varagies has given me an medium to express my view on weather. So I may go totally wrong on forecasting .

Prince Raj said...

This is very nice information to us. I like this post .

India Holidays

Arpit Sharma said...

Today heavy rain lashed Ghaziabad,Noida and East delhi in morning almost for 40 minutes and light rain in remaining NCR.

Anonymous said...

@ abhijiit
How much does it rain in badlapur?

Pradeep said...

Massive Rains in Karnataka (Drought to Floods within 3 days)
--------------------
The monsoon that played traunt for more than a year is in full vigour in western Karnataka reviving the lost hopes of people. The Malnad belt of the state from Belgaum district to Kodagu and coastal areas received heavy rains. Karnataka as a state recording a whopping 175% surplus across the four geographical regions in the last 24-hours ending 8.30am today. Malnad and coastal parts including Dakshina Kannada bore the brunt recording 360% and 152% departure respectively from normal weighted average while south-interior and north-interior Karnataka received 86% and 34% surplus rainfall.

24 hrs Rainfall Figures

Some of the 24hrs rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 07.08.2012 are as follows

Karauru - 337
Indabettu - 308
Mastikatte - 265
Yadur - 238
Hulikal - 235
Kammardi - 229
Mani - 228
Nilkund 225
Nariyandada - 222
Thirthahalli - 210
Umbalamani - 203
Devanahalli - 203
Bandal - 203
Kollur - 201
Kalasa - 200
Kalasa - 197
Sringeri - 196
Meguda - 196
Hebri - 190
Perdur- 190
Siddapura - 187
Subramanya - 187
Vanagur - 187
Dharmasthala - 180
Hosanagara - 180
Jayapura - 180
Koppa - 180
Talaguppa - 170
Agumbe - 172


Other Massive Rainfall Figures
--------------
Some of the other massive rainfall stats in past two days are as follows as on 8.30 am on 06.08.2012 -

Birunani - 559 mm
Parakatageri - 508 mm
Teralu - 305 - mm

Further, Nagara recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs ending 05.08.2012

Bisile, Kempuhole, Moorukannugudda, Kenchanakumari and the Bajemane reserve forest received 600 mm of rainfall in the 36 hours ending 05.08.2012

Dam Levels
----------------
Linganamakki reservoir has reached 1,779 feet against the maximum level of 1,819 feet
Kabini stood at 2,277.35 feet as against the maximum of 2,284 feet.
Harangi reservoir reached 2,856.79 feet against the full level of 2,859 feet
Bhadra reservoir too increased to 150.50 tmc ft against maximum of 186 feet

Pavan said...

Thnks pradeep but frm whr u get these results

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Anonymous. Are you from Mumbai or Thane side ? If you are asking for today's Badlapur rain then from today 8.30am till evening 8.30pm , 5mm measured here. And 1640mm rain measured here from 1 June 2012 till today 7 Aug 2012 .
And I am still keeping hopes that North Konkan will get medium to heavy rain spells in next 48hrs.

sset said...

Abhijit - Badlapur received 1650mm rain since june?? This is more than Mangalore rain?

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Yes Badlapur recorded 1640mm. I myself have measured it, so might be some fluctuation may there ! And now rainfall of near by places which are accurate. 11km away Barvi Dam, Badlapur has measured 1400mm & 21kms south Matheran hill station recorded 1950mm & 30kms SE Karjat recorded 1676mm till 7 Aug 2012.

Pavan said...

@sset r u been transfrd 2 manglore

Pavan said...

In upcmg days i thnk pradeep and rajesh sir are supposd to make a comparitve chart of rainfal data of indian cities with that of cities of karnataka

sset said...

No Pavanji still in Bangalore stuck with my company - waiting for Mumbai transfer.