Sunday, August 26, 2012

Current Low in Bay persists off Orissa /W.Bengal coast as at 05.30am IST.Trough from the low stretches southwards to South TN coast. 
As Typhoon "Tembin" embeds itself in the extended Monsoon Trough, better possibility of Low in the Bay around 29th August. ( Only forecasted by Vagaries as yet).

Also, as estimated by vagaries, a vortex has formed on Sunday morning (IST) off the Kerala/Karnataka coast at 700 mb, (depth velocity at -20). (Formed earlier than estimated). 
Heavy downpours could result in Kerala and coastal Karnataka on Sunday thru Tuesday. Heavy rains could extend to Konkan from Monday (shall monitor the vortex).

Vagaries had estimated heavy showers in the Nilgiri district for Saturday night. But, as explained yesterday, a formation of the line of discontinuity moved the thunderstorm areas Eastwards, as the winds curved 90 degress (NW> SW) along the "line", and as a result, Chennai got heavy rains on Saturday night. 


Pradeep said...

Preliminary Official Rainfall figures in mm of around Chennai Region ending 8.30 am on 26.08.2012

Taramani - 106 mm
Meenambakkam - 83
Guindy - 75
RK Pet Agro - 66
Uttiramerur - 58
Avadi - 55
Shollinganallur - 53
Katpadi - 51
Kolapakkam - 45
Ellapuram - 45
Cheyyar - 45
Madurantakam - 40
RK pet IMD - 37
Kadambathur - 34
Ennore - 28
Tiruvallur - 29
Katupakkam - 26
Kaveripakkam - 23
Red Hills - 22
Poonamalle - 22
Madhavarm - 20
Vellore - 20
Chembarbakkam - 19
Poondi Lake - 15
Kanchipuram - 14
Nungambakkam - 10
Marina Beach - 9
Cholavaram - 8

Vivek said...

Rain this morning in Gurgaon. 30-40 minutes starting at 630am.

Raining again now.

Pradeep said...

Rains pounds karnataka for third straight day rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 26.08.2012

min 70 mm

Kapu 259
Kedinje 218
Mulki 190
Udupi 153
Kuppepadavu 152
Puttige 151
Surathkal 136
Mulikar 130
Manki 118
Mangalore 116
Kundapur 107.6
Hosakere 104.9
Kerveshe 104
Mani 101.2
Naravi 101.2
Sangabettu 98.8
Albadi(Ardi) 98
Karkala 97.6
Kumta 97.5
Kokkada 94.6
Kota 94
Siruguppa 92
Gokarna 90.6
Kottigehara 89
Dabbaedka 88
Ajekar 87.6
D.Marikunte 86.6
Maripalla 86.4
Agumbe 85
Bhatkal 80
T.Hagalawadi 80
Shirahatti 79.5
Venkatagiri 78
Chickkanayakanahalli 75.4
Koila 74.6
Dharmasthala 74.2
Harapanahalli 73.6
Thogarsi 72.1
Oddarahatti 72
Venoor 72
Ramanahalli 71.6
Kengeri 70

Pradeep said...

Rain Lashes Kerala too...Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 26.08.12 today are as follows

Mattanur - 122
Cheruthazham - 110
Taliparamba 102
Enamackel 99
Panniyur 98
Kudulu 94
Vadakara 94
Thalasserry 82
Haripad 75
Thamaraserry 75
Karipur AP 69
Neeriamangalam 65
Thodupuzha 59
Peermade 56
Kunnamkulam 56
Tavanur 50
Vaikom 50
Irinjalakuda 48
Chalakudy 45
Keerampara 44
Pookot 44
Thimoni 44
Munnar 42

Abhijit Modak said...

Some Rain figures of today(i.e 26-08-2012) at 8.30am of near by towns around Mumbai region.

Badlapur(own Measured) & Murbad 30mm
Kalyan, Bhiwandi, Ulhasnagar Ambernath,Panvel, Santacruz(Mumbai) 20mm
Thane & Matheran 10mm

Source IMD Data.

Arpit Sharma said...

Just now very very heavy spell of rain lashed Ghaziabad.It was a 45 min long steady spell of heavy rain must be amounting upto 50mms easily.

Rajesh said...

vivek:A Strong MJO phase (in our Seas) would normally mean strengthened precipitation activity. Strong MJO would result in thunderstorms. A moderate MJO would mean good chances of Low/Depression formation and strong MJO could mean good chances of even Tropical storms.

Enhanced surface westerly winds occur near the east side of the active convection. In advance, or to the east, of the MJO enhanced activity, winds aloft (850 and 700 hpa) are westerly. In its wake, or to the west of the enhanced rainfall area, winds aloft are easterly.
These wind changes aloft are due to the divergence present over the active thunderstorms during the enhanced phase.

Arpit Sharma said...

Rajesh sir
Does MJO affects the whole country or some particular regions?

Ron said...

wow..surprise...raining heavily in mumbai for a while now..more expected??

Rajesh said...

ron: why surprised ?? -:)) it was in our short term and 3 day forecast..evening showers...i am happy -:))

Anonymous said...

heavy rains here in borivali since 20 mins..timely forecast, glad did not plan anything evening today...chetan

Anonymous said...

Pradeep, rajesh mentioned of heavy rains in kerala, are they along coast or in the mountains ? Chetan

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur had heavy rains in early morning from 4.30am to 8am.32mm measured ending 8.30am today for past 24hrs. Then steady drizzling till 1pm with dark conditions. Then overcast up to 4pm. Then sudden clear up with bright sunshine from 4pm to 6pm. Just half hr back again Black arrived from west and heavy spell for 10mins period.Now cloudy. 15mm measured from 8.30am till 6.30pm today.

GSB said...

SPIN scores 36 run in an over!! All the 10 subdivisions report EXCESS rainfall today (8.30am). Rayalseema (703%)and SI karnataka (377%) are the top two. The MJO effect as stated by Rajesh sir and onset of SEP/OCT benefitting the souther peninsula.

Abhijit Modak said...

Hoping for Heavy Rain from tonight till Tuesday in & around Mumbai & Thane & Raigad districts region of North Konkan area.

Pradeep said...

Chetan, Why Bangladesh gets less rainfall from than Meghalaya.

Apart from Cherrapuni and Mawynaram

Meghalaya Rainfall

Cherrapunji & Mawsynaram - 11000 to 12000 mm
Jowai - 6300
Pdengshakap - 6200
Tura - 4000
Baghmara -3700
Williamnagar - 3200
Nongostin - 3200
Upper Shillong - 3000

In comparison the wet spots in Banlgadesh are

Lalakhal 6400 mm
Sunamganj - 5330
Sylhet - 4180

You can see that places in Bangladesh also gets rainfall above 5000 mm

The Cherrapunji and Mawsynaram are two exceptions. These two get rains from the purely Orographic rainfall.

In case of Banlgadesh, the monsoon rains in plains of Bangladesh is due to troughs and lows developed due to the heavily moisture laden low level monsoon winds from the Bay of Bengal and in addition to this higher rainfall is received in the North and northeast Bangladesh by the additional uplifting effect (moderate Orographic effect) of the Meghalaya plateau

If you remove Cherrapunji and Mawsyanaram, the averages along the border areas of Bangladesh near Meghalaya will be similar to that of other places in Meghalaya.

Unlike Meghlaya, remember Bangladesh gets good rains from cyclones in November.

Vivek said...

Thank you Rajesh sir and Pradeep.

Pavan said...

Rajesh sir/mr.pradeep/mr.rajan, even though karnataka is getting good rains one can observe that the line joining malnad region and the plains are still devoid of rains.

GSB said...

I will give all India weekly analysis Monday evening as there is some discrepancy in IMD data today(SUNDAY).

Ron said...

good amount of rain since early morning..hoping this will continue now for a week or so..mumbai needs it..

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had occasional drizzle to light to medium rains with dark conditions through out the day bit opened up(sunshine) in evening time for 2hrs period then from late evening had again occasional spells but today early morning had heavy spell.At moment Light rain is on here.

So overall 55mm rain measured here in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 27/08/2012).

Pradeep said...

Rainfall batters Karnataka for 4th day preliminary rainfall in mm ending 8.30 on 27.08.12

min 60 mm

Mudabidri 158.4
Iavatur 152.6
Rae 151
Baindur 121
Kukkala 118
Kota 115.2
Kundapur 113.8
Maripalla 113.6
Dharmasthala 110.4
Kuppepadavu 108
Kerveshe 105
Uppinangady 104.6
Kapu 103.4
Gokarna 100.11
Bhatkal 98
Sarsamba 91
Karkala 90.4
Ulloor II 88.4
Kokkada 88.2
Albadi 88
Bhatambra 87
Belthangady 85.2
Sitanadi 85.1
Sulkeri 84
Hosakere 83.2
Ainapur 82.2
Puttige 80.6
Ajekar 80.2
Kumta 78.5
Kamthana 75.4
Sirigere 75.4
Ubrani 74.6
Chittaguppa 74
Udupi 73.4
Koila 70.5
Bharamasagar 70
Birur 68.7
Vastare 67
Humnabad 66.7
Mahagaon.Kar 66.6
Nittur (B) 65.2
Mulky 64.5
Kodli 64.4
Huliyur 63.1
Puttur 62
Hosanagar 61.2
Kunchawaram 60.8
Kollur 60.4
Kogar 60.4
Bhemalkhed 60.1
Ajjampura 60

svt said...

Raining since early morning in Dadar. Intensity of Rain has increased in last in 1 hour. Already waterlogging in Hindmata.Whats your forecast for next 6 hours?

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