Current Low in Bay persists off Orissa /W.Bengal coast as at 05.30am IST.Trough from the low stretches southwards to South TN coast.
As Typhoon "Tembin" embeds itself in the extended Monsoon Trough, better possibility of Low in the Bay around 29th August. ( Only forecasted by Vagaries as yet).
Also, as estimated by vagaries, a vortex has formed on Sunday morning (IST) off the Kerala/Karnataka coast at 700 mb, (depth velocity at -20). (Formed earlier than estimated).
Heavy downpours could result in Kerala and coastal Karnataka on Sunday thru Tuesday. Heavy rains could extend to Konkan from Monday (shall monitor the vortex).
Vagaries had estimated heavy showers in the Nilgiri district for Saturday night. But, as explained yesterday, a formation of the line of discontinuity moved the thunderstorm areas Eastwards, as the winds curved 90 degress (NW> SW) along the "line", and as a result, Chennai got heavy rains on Saturday night.