The axis of the Monsoon runs through Pakistan Punjab, Northern Rajasthan, Delhi, Adjoining UP, Bihar and into the Bay from Gangetic W.Bengal.
The UAC off the Orissa coast is persisting in the region. Should descend to sea level as a low at 1000 mb by Friday afternoon. The Low will be centred at Bhubaneshwar.
The latest MJO situation is seen in this map below. The "regular" weak MJO shown in models, seems to have been "distrubed" by a restricted surge along the Arabian Sea. But, overall, the MJO is weak in our seas.
Seeing the strength of the Bay pulses, and the current weakness of the MJO, i do not hope to expect much from this low. Will move as a weak low at 1000 mb and fizzle out by Sunday over East MP.
Friday 17th/Saturday 18th/Sunday19th Outlook:
Rainfall Weak over Konkan.
Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains and same with TN ( save Nilgiri Hills which may get rain Friday) and interior Karnataka.
Friday 17th: Precipitation will be good in Orissa, adjoining W.Bengal and North AP.
Rainfall weakens abruptly in Rajasthan and all of NW India and adjoining North Pakistan.
Weak monsoon along the Konkan and slightly better off along coastal Karnataka.
Saturday 18th: as the low tracks west, we see rainfall spreading into Northern AP and adjoining Vidharbha, with heavy falls from Vizag to Hyderabad. Hyderabad can can intermittent rans on Saturday, with heavy falls. The plains of Punjab and adjoining plains of HP (Amb region) may get some showers on Sunday. Coastal Karnataka sees a better day with moderate rains 3-5 cms.
Southern Peninsual, Interior Madhya Mah. and Konkan remains weak.
Sunday 19th: As the low starts fading, the rainfall is restricted to Vidarbha, adjoining East MP, North AP (including Hyderabad). Weakening along entier west coast.
Again, throughout these 3 days, rains are negligible to nil in NW India and all Pakistan. Sindh remains dry and hot.
Nepal: Western regions get good precipitations as the axis remains in the Himalayan hills.
Mumbai: Friday/Saturday: Sunny spells with warm days,around 32/33c. A few passing showers may occur towards evening which could make the nights stuffy. Rain Amounts: 7-10 mm/day.
Sunday might see some increase in rains from afternoon, if the system heads due west or NW, and if it retains its capacity.
Pune: Partly cloudy with warm days. Light drizzles in some parts in the afternoon. Thunderclouds by evening on the horizon on Sunday. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms/day.
Surat: Weak rainfall situation with upto 7-10 mms/day.
Delhi: Partly cloudy with not much of any meaningfull rains. Showers in some areas on Sunday evening possible.
Hyderabad: City gets increased rainfall from Saturday thru Sunday. Rain Amounts 25-30 mms Saturday/Sunday.
Chennai: Local thundershowers in some areas on Friday, but decreasing by Saturday and Sunday.
Bangalore: Thundershowers possible in some parts on Friday evening. No significant increase on Saturday/Sunday. Rains on the weekend may measure upto 7 mms.
Pradeep's All India Rainfall figures have been Put up on Current Weather Page...again superb effort as usual..Vagaries is thankfull to Pradeep for presenting these details..