Thursday, August 16, 2012


The axis of the Monsoon runs through Pakistan Punjab, Northern Rajasthan, Delhi, Adjoining UP, Bihar and into the Bay from Gangetic W.Bengal.

The UAC off the Orissa coast is persisting in the region. Should descend to sea level as a low at 1000 mb by Friday afternoon. The Low will be centred at Bhubaneshwar.

The latest MJO situation is seen in this map below. The "regular" weak MJO shown in models, seems to have been "distrubed" by a restricted surge along the Arabian Sea. But, overall, the MJO is weak in our seas.



Seeing the strength of the Bay pulses, and the current weakness of the MJO, i do not hope to expect much from this low. Will move as a weak low at 1000 mb and fizzle out by Sunday over East MP.

Friday 17th/Saturday 18th/Sunday19th Outlook:
Rainfall Weak over Konkan.
Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains and same  with TN ( save Nilgiri Hills which may get rain Friday) and interior Karnataka.

Friday 17th: Precipitation will be good in Orissa, adjoining W.Bengal and North AP. 
Rainfall weakens abruptly in Rajasthan and all of NW India and adjoining North Pakistan.
Weak monsoon along the Konkan and slightly better off along coastal Karnataka.

Saturday 18th: as the low tracks west, we see rainfall spreading into Northern AP and adjoining Vidharbha, with heavy falls from Vizag to Hyderabad. Hyderabad can can intermittent rans on Saturday, with heavy falls. The plains of Punjab and adjoining plains of HP (Amb region) may get some showers on Sunday. Coastal Karnataka sees a better day with moderate rains 3-5 cms. 
Southern Peninsual, Interior Madhya Mah. and Konkan remains weak.

Sunday 19th: As the low starts fading, the rainfall is restricted to Vidarbha, adjoining East MP, North AP (including Hyderabad). Weakening along entier west coast.

Again, throughout these 3 days, rains are negligible to nil in NW India and all Pakistan. Sindh remains dry and hot.
Nepal: Western regions get good precipitations as the axis remains in the Himalayan hills.

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Friday/Saturday: Sunny spells with warm days,around 32/33c. A few passing showers may occur towards evening which could  make the nights stuffy. Rain Amounts: 7-10 mm/day.

Sunday might see some increase in rains from afternoon, if the system heads due west or NW, and if it retains its capacity.

Pune: Partly cloudy with warm days. Light drizzles in some parts in the afternoon. Thunderclouds by evening on the horizon on Sunday. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms/day.

Surat: Weak rainfall situation with upto 7-10 mms/day.

Delhi: Partly cloudy with not much of any meaningfull rains. Showers in some areas on Sunday evening possible. 

Hyderabad: City gets increased rainfall from Saturday thru Sunday. Rain Amounts 25-30 mms Saturday/Sunday. 

Chennai: Local thundershowers in some areas on Friday, but decreasing by Saturday and Sunday.

Bangalore: Thundershowers possible in some parts on Friday evening. No significant increase on Saturday/Sunday. Rains on the weekend may measure upto 7 mms.

Pradeep's All India Rainfall figures have been Put up on Current Weather Page...again superb effort as usual..Vagaries is thankfull to Pradeep for presenting these details..

17 comments:

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur was again having thundery like heads yellowish type clouds almost for whole day prominently over West & NW directions. Few were also converting in black but were not getting organized properly so just thick drops for few seconds for many occasion were noticed. Today early morning drizzle made all wet around and also was bit foggy in morning noticed so I think today might be localized short sharp spell may develop in afternoon from thundery heads!

Finally in past 24hrs, just 2mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am).

rajesh said...

abhijit: good observations..a bit surprised with the fog report. Normally fog would occur on a clear sky..next time just click and send. The cb clouds you see are not actually "thunder heads". Thunder heads in our region will ocuur in the NE/E/Se at this time of the season, and will come as an afternoon development. Actual thunder heads will not "move" apperantly, and will be sort of "stuck" in the lower/middle horizons.And will pick up a pinkis tint. I think, possibly, we shouls see a developmemt of thunder clouds around 24th, but i'll wait a few days before mentioning.
Please be free to interact anytime..

rajesh said...

abhijit: also if you recall, i had said that 50% of the clouds had started going "flat" about 3 days ago..thats the result of the stability in the atmosphere, and the change in the last 3 days.of-course.
Just informing you on the importance of visual observations.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yes. Very True Rajesh Sir. I totally agree the importance of visual observations and also remembering your observations of 50% of the clouds had started going flat about 3 days ago.

Yes difference in clouds are there but overall looking like Thundery heads so mentioned it.
And NE/SE/E directions thundery heads have Lightening & thundering in it. But why this W/NW directions CB clouds are not having lightening and thundering in it !

Sure I will upload the fog photo of Badlapur next time if appears, on Vagaries of weather group on Facebook.

Abhijit Modak said...

At moment looking like west coast off shore trough getting stronger off Kerala coast.(right from Kannur in North till Trivandrum in South).

Vijayanand said...

5.30 am this morning:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8&from=imap_refresh

Weather turning murkier for coastal karnataka after a gap of 3 dry days. Mangalore and udupi getting light rains this morning.
Mangalore at 197 cms since June 1st.

Shitij said...

By looking at the clouds can we know that whether the cloud is rising or not???

Anonymous said...

@ rajesh sir
Why kashmir does not receive rainfall during monsoon season?

venkatesh said...

Hi Rajesh,
COLA model predicted heavy rainfall in west cost for next three days.
Please refer the below link:
http://ow.ly/i/R4TV

And already signs of heavy rains in kerala and coastal karnataka.

Is it going to heppen as per COLA prediction?

rajesh said...

venkatesh:I' think i'll stick to my forecast for west coast.
Friday weak in Konkan a bit better in coastal karnatak
Sat:slightly better off in coastal Kar.3-5 cms
sunday:weak along entire coast.
Thats what i had put up on Thursday night.
Anon: Reg Kashmir, only S.Kashmir gets Monsoon rains when the axis is high, or a system moves North.
N. Kashmir is mostly influenced by WDs.

Arpit Sharma said...

@rajesh sir
IMD is showing heavy to very heavy rain for most of the places of northwestern india after 19 august. Is it true?

Rajan Alexander said...

@SSET

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bangalore_raintemp.pn

These are data for Bangalore till 1991. From where you find Sept and then Oct the months of most rain.

Bangalore has an average of 870 mm annually. Any place with this amount of rainfall cannot be considered climatologically as evidence of desertification.

Anonymous said...

@SSET: Sir, we are tired of hearing the same old rant of less rains, water problem, disappearing lakes and concrete jungle.i hope the evidence presented by Rajan re-assures you . Thanks

Vijayanand said...

The whole day it has rained in mangalore and udupi.
As per :
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/43284/2012/8/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Not sure about the ghats.

KEA Weather said...

Another spell of TS in Chennai. around 13 mm recorded

rajesh said...

Arpit: No, i dont think NW India is in for a heavy spell..i have put up forecast till Sunday with mention of NW.
vijayanand: Mangalore recieved 32 mms till 8.30pm Friday. Honavar 40 mms.

Satyen Rohitkumar said...

It's actually hot out here today.