Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Drought Scene In India Improves in the last 15 days...Deficit rains decrease from  -18% on 5th August to  -14% on 22nd August...See Region wise Comparison map on Current Weather Page

Wednesday's actual performance put up against forecast date, see below.. 
2 changes in Mumbai weather observed on Thursday morning.  1). Pressure rises to1008 which is highest since May (See vagaries' Readings Page if interested) and  2) winds were SSE in the morning.

If interested, Read my views on Cloud seeding here...http://epaper.dnaindia.com/story.aspx?id=25325&boxid=15340&ed_date=2012-08-23&ed_code=820009&ed_page=2

Cherrapunjcrosses 10000 mm for the year 2012

Peninsula Giants in Maharashtra and Karnataka stole the show in August with stations such as Kollur, Agumbe, Kitwade, Amboli, Shiragon, Tamini and Dawdi all getting close to 2000 mm in 20 days in August.

Cherrapunji, after posting monstrous rainfalls of 3600 mm in July and 3450 mm in June 2012, August was silent till yesterday with just 500 mm till 19th. 
Yesterday it got around 105 mm and followed it with a 384 mm today. I posted earlier that Cherrapunji would cross 10000 mm mark by mid August. 
Here is the list of instances in past few years, when Cherrapunji has crossed 10000 mm and the date of crossing is as follows -
2012 - 21st August, 2012 (10298 mm till date)
2011 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 8372 mm)
2010 - 23rd July, 2010 (ended year at 13472 mm)
2009 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 9070 mm)

Will it cross 14000 mm mark for the year, i dont think so personally. In last 20 years of rainfall in Cherrapunji it managed to cross 14000 mm mark only thrice.
1995 - 14210 mm
1998 - 14537 mm
2004 - 14791 mm
Last time when hell broke loose in Cherrapunji in a Calender Year was in 1974 when  it got around 24555 mm rainfall with 8205 mm falling in July alone.
By Pradeep (Prepared for Vageries, Indian Weatherman and Tamil Nadu Weatherman)


3 days Forecast for Wednesday 22nd, Thursday 23rd, Friday 24th: (Rain amounts shown are upto 8.30 am next morning).

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Couple of Passing showers in different areas will bring about 10-15 mms of rain.
Actual: couple of showers early morning in South Mumbai, and last evening in North. Here at vagaries (Mahalaxmi) almost no rain. Scruz :38 mms, Colaba 19mms and vagaries  2.4 mms. Avg = 20 mms.

Thursday: Again partly cloudy with sunny spells, and day temp rising to 32c. Rains in a couple of showers will be upto 7 mms.
Day was hot with Scruz showing 32c and vagaries 34c. Rainfall measured 1 mm.

Friday: Sunny with cloudy intervals. Day warmer at 33c and real feel at 37c. Rains will be scattered measuring upto 5 mms.

Pune: Wed/Thursday/Friday: Days will be around 32c. Not much significant rainfall with partly cloudy skies with light drizzles spraying about 2-5 mms/day.

Surat: No major increase in rains, with daily scattred showers in parts measuring upto 5 mms/day.Decreasing Thursday/Friday.

Delhi NCR: Sharp showers expected late Tuesday night.

Wednesday: Overcast to Cloudy with a couple of sharp showers in different areas measuring upto 15 mms/day.
Actual: Some sharp showers in South delhi with Lodhi getting 39 mms, S'Jung 28 mms. Palam managed 1 mm and Ridge and Gurgaon 6 mms. Najafgarh got 2 mms, while there was no rain in Jafarpur.Avg = 12 mms.

Thursday: Decreasing rains. Cloudy day with temp at 33c. A few showers in different areas may guage up 10 mms of rain.
Few showers in different areas. Rain measured 9.6 mm at S'Jung

Friday: Partly cloudy with light rains in some parts. Measuring upto 5 mms.

Wednesday: Localised thundershowers in some parts after a hot day at around 35c, real feel at 39c. Rain amounts: upto 7 mms.
Actual:No rain recorded anywhere in Chennai. Day temp was 33c at NGM and 34c at MKB.

Thursday:Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and some rain. Days around 35c, and stuffy night. Rains upto 5-7 mms.
Day temp was 35c and not much rains seen. Almost nil.

Friday: Partly cloudy with chance of a measurable thunderstorm by evening. Guage will measure 15-20 mms rains (average).


Abhijit Modak said...

Again variations in rains just every 3kms range is seen.

Now Kalyan & Ulhasnagar cities are just 4kms away from each other but rain recording patterns differ in less km area too ! Now see today's example only.

Today 8.30am(i.e on 21/08/2012) Kalyan recorded 67mm but just 4 kms away in SE direction Ulhasnagar city recorded just 27mm. That is 40mm rain deviation in just 4kms range !

Ambernath recorded 22.2mm
Badlapur (own measured) & Panvel recorded 23mm
Karjat 13.7mm

Pavan said...

Dear mr pradeep can i know the wettest places of bangladesh i hope there may be many variations as this country has a distinct climatic regions. Even in this blog also i didn't heard or learnt of this country

Rajesh said...

pavan: I do not give much time to Bangladesh weather and forecast. I used to earlier, but getting no response or feedback puts one off, and with no encouragement, do not feel i should spend my energies. After all, making even one forecast consumes a lot of time and energy, but would love to do it if there is response and feedback.

Vivek said...


It rained off and on all day today in Gurgaon. Delhi, I believe, got more rain.

Hoping for more rain tomorrow.

Pradeep said...

Here is the Average rainfall in mm of places in Bangladesh

Dhaka 2148
Mymensingh 2252.9
Tangail 1874.2
Faridpur 1952.7
Madaripur 2094.5
Chittagong 2919.1
Sandwip 3477.7
Sitakunda 3092.2
Rangamati 2548.7
Comilla 2065.7
Chandpur 2147.4
M_Court 3155.1
Feni 3081.6
Hatiya 3039.8
Cox's_Bazar 3524.1
Kutubdia 2824.2
Teknaf 3954.4
Sylhet 4195.9
Srimangal 2354.8
Rajshahi 1542.1
Ishurdi 1656.2
Bogra 1843.1
Rangpur 2235.8
Dinajpur 2006.4
Sayedpur 2107.3
Khulna 1809.4
Mongla 1887.6
Satkhira 1742.9
Jessore 1615
Chuadanga 1496.5
Barisal 2128.2
Patuakhali 2712.7
Khepupara 2764.1
Bhola 2297.4

Pavan said...

Ok sir i can understand i made this statement because ths country is sourrounded 3 sides by india and the geoclimatic regions of india are very different and the cherrapunjee hills end up in bangladesh, and obviously i dont expect to highlgt about, but as there has been a discussn n c'punjee and huge amount of water which falls here is almost draind into b'desh

Shitij said...

Surat has received some showers which lasted only for 5 minutes

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had few brief spells then rain spells were noticed today early morning period . So overall in past 24hrs, 11mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 22/08/2012). With this Badlapur has crossed 2000mm rain mark. Now total rain is 2004mm till today 8.30am.

Santosh said...

In the "Vagaries Reading" section I would like to see the latest updated figures.

GSB said...

Abhijit good to see Badlapur crossing 2000 mm mark.. Thane just about 1275mm and Mumbai(s) about 1100 mm. What is Badlapur average for monsoons?

Anonymous said...

Rajeshbhai, Vidarbha has been getting reasonably moderate but consistent rainfall. In fact, now there is need for little respite so that de-weeding and other activities can be taken up. Your forecasts have really made a lot of difference to many farmers. Thanks ..... potey

Abhijit Modak said...

As per mine previous observations Badlapur has average around 3000mm & Barvi Dam,Badlapur also around 3000mm and mostly many past years seen above 3000mm . Karjat has average around 3500mm. Even karjat has cross 2000mm mark. Now karjat at 2107mm till today 8.30am

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB. And actual Thane city season total rain at 1414mm till today 8.30am as per department of agriculture , Maharashtra . IMD too refer rain data of all talukas from this dept only. And 1275mm is measurement of envirocon private weather station know ! So variations in rain can be noticed in 3kms range also.

Jitendra Solanki said...

Rajesh, I belong to Saurashtra region in Gujarat. Still no rain has occurred in this region. monsoon is about to end in next month or so now. maximum total season rain is also around 3 to 4 inch till date in almost all 7 districts in this region. any forecast in nearer future for this region? or draught would sustain now ? please share your views........

Arpit Sharma said...

Couple of spells of moderate rain in Ghaziabad today till now.

RK said...

Heavy rain showers today at Greater Noida

RK said...

170mm in jaipur!!!!
whats happening in the desert state?

sset said...

RK - If you see past 5 years rain statistics Rajisthan/Gujarat received excess of rains and no longer can be termed as desert states. Infact Geography needs to be redined.
In contrast many places over interior karantaka,Rayalseema and adjoining TN are falling in category of desertification.
We can see a wide change in climate.
August coming to an end - still no rain in Bangalore. September is only hope left else we don't know what is in store - By the way Bangalore has become true "Garbage City" now.

Anonymous said...

Sset please leave bangaluru and stay in rajasthan please donot return.

Rajesh said...

Jitendrabhai: Yes, Saurashtra and Kutch are having very poor rains this year. Many places in Kutch are still with 0 mms this seson. The main city of Bhuj has got only 2 mms. Ground water levels have depleted. Kutch is 90% deficit.
Saurashtra is 70% deficit. Rajkot, the main town has recieved only 126 mms, that is 25% of the normal till today. Crop position is extremely bad.
These regions are the worst hit in India this season.

No, i do not see any rainfall, at least any good rainfall this month. There is hope only if a system comes over the region.

Rajesh said...

Kaneyen: Its true that no direct link has been proved between trees and rainfall, or a tropical forest and the amount of rain. It seems so, as the forest and trees thrive due to heavy rainfall.
Tree cover, a vast area, though does create a small regionof "excess moisture and humidity". Through transpiration and moisture retaining capability, the region gets extremely humid, and can, to a certain extent "help" in maintaining humidity. This in turn can increase cloud saturation levels, and allow quicker condensation from clouds.
clouds in a drier region may not precipitate if optimum humidity is not achieved.

GSB said...

What a surprise.....

Today (till 8.30am) all India rainfall was the highest for this monsoon season 13.8 MM !!!! WE still have hope that the overall deficit of 14% all India will come below 10%. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Also NWI rainfall was 192% above normal with 8 of the 9 subdivisions reporting excess rainfall. The highest difference was in East Rajasthan which got 52 MM against an average of 5.9 MM.

Another good news is that the subdivision of Har.Ch & Delhi has today come out of the scanty rainfall category. But to remain there it has to get good rainfall in the next few days or else it will slip into the scanty category again.

One more fact is that all the four days since saturday i.e the rainfall of 19th,20th,21st and today 22nd have been above normal.

Very interesting period indeed!!

GSB said...

Rajesh sir what are the indications if any for monsoon withdrawal from 1st sep from Pakistan and extreme NWI ?

Rajesh said...

GSB: What a coincidence !! I was just studying this , the SWM withdrawal. I mean, i was looking into all the parameters of withdrawal, and whether they are taking shape. Trying to see all the factors before writing on it.
I will never write till i am sure of myself.
As yet, lets leave it at "no signs"...

Rajan Alexander said...

SSET: Don't worry. If the past holds true, September Bangalore gets the most rainfall, followed by October.

There is no "wide change in climate."
The monsoons for example, by character, exhibit a wide range of natural variability on the spatial, temporal, intra-seasonal, inter-annual and decadal scale. The monsoon has always had its natural vagaries and it is going to show them in future too.

Just a few weeks ago, media splashed their headlines of drought and agriculture shortfalls. Just in 20 days, these headlines have disappeared. Media are sheepishly talking of chances of "normal monsoons" actualizing and a bumper harvest this year.

About Bangalore reduced to a garbage city - it is unfortunate especially since we use to pride ourselves as one of the cleanest city in the country. There is failure of governance in every area. Worse that garbage is the open selling of water by politicians creating shortages when there is none.

Rajesh said...

Rajan: You were also skeptical of monsoon recovering in Aug..due to adverse Nino and IOD factors -:)

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, this is the first time I will get a ringside view of monsoon withdrawal with detailed explanations from you..

Popcorn ready, waiting for the show to begin...!!!!!!!!!

Rajan Alexander said...

@Rajesh. Yes there was some doubts. But it was not because of El Nino and IOD. As in the notes we exchanged in preparation of the August forecast, I remain optimistic about El Nino (weak) and IOD (weakly positive).

It was the MJO forecasts I was worried about but I did say that if the MJO got out of the circle, it would be positive. That's what the MJO apparently did. But still, my understanding of MJO is still very basic

Jitendra Solanki said...

Thanks sir for sharing your observations.. Eagerly waiting with hope that some system might get developed to bring cheers in this region before season ends....

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had few brief spells then rain spell were noticed today early morning period . So overall in past 24hrs, 18mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 23/08/2012).

Vijayanand said...

Warm morning in bangalore. From sunday weather in bangalore has been clear and warm. Hope the tide changes this weekend.

Pavan said...

drought scene in karnataka and maharastra worsens as rains have stopped in ghats and coastal area

emkay said...

Hetawane Dam under MJJP near Panvel which supplies water to Panvel and surroundings has started overflowing according to newspapers.

@rajesh nice letter by you in DNA. Hope those jokers read it !!

Anonymous said...

@pradeep, thanks on behalf of pavan and all readers for the Bangladesh rainfall amounts. Wonder why the bordering hills in that country do get get more than 5000 mms ?
I also think cherrapunji will get 12000 mms. What do you think on it ?
Rajesh, what do you feel will be cherrapunji total ?chetan

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, good article in DNA. On the Mumbai weather, it felt much cooler today early morning than usual, not sure what the readings were. So what does the rise in the pressure and wind direction mean - clearer weather?

Anonymous said...

2 mm recorded in Chennai nungambakkam past 6 days, SWM deficit is 36 % and for the year it is 48 % deficit

venkatesh said...

Hi Rajesh,
IMD reported UAC in south east arabian sea.Wat will be the impact? Is there any benefit for karnataka and kerala

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Pressure risen to 1008 effect clearly seen from today morning in Badlapur & Karjat mountainous belt. Bright sun shine after 8am . No low level clouds so all mountain top clouds have been disappear. Just patchy high level clouds and some of them also looking like thundery heads. But wind direction change to SSE not understood by me ! As I have noticed SSE directions winds many times in Badlapur in all June, July & current August too. Even while raining also sometimes due to SSE winds directions, rain was looking like coming from SSE or rain direction was also from SSE side !

Rajugana said...

Incredible Cherrapunji,.Amazing to see 1974 record...

venkatesh said...

It is raining heavily for past 30 mins in East Bangalore

Abhijit Modak said...

Change in weather pattern seen in southern peninsula region ! Lots of easterly thunder heads developing in patches seen right from south most Konkan till Kerala and also in south interior parts of Karnataka & AP regions.

Vijayanand said...

Good for you people. No rain in South Bangalore. Suddenly after 3.00 pm the weather changed. It appears more like an April evening. No wind. Tall thunder Cell's all around.

Pavan said...

Pune a thunder cell developd towards eastrn horizon faded away with darkgrey and pinkishorange lines painted up in the sky really fed up with "dry days" , common man's patience is really testd by both "mohan and manmohan"

Pavan said...

Reports from Many places in drought hit karnataka receiving heavy to very heavy rain many eastrn central and parts of the state may be a convectn which r usually seen in august

GSB said...

NWI hits a sixer again! 6 of the 9 subdivisions above normal for today (8.30 am). East UP (179%), Punjab (142%), W Rajasthan (456%) and E Rajasthan (257%) all significantly above normal.

Also E Rajas manages to notch +3% for the entire season with 481mm against 467mm!!

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Nice Article in DNA.

And Badlapur was also having thunder cells developing in Eastern directions in evening time which faded out. And few lower clouds were continued from SW to NE directions also.

venkatesh said...

Heavy rain in east and north bangalore for the past one hour.

I think this is the best rain of this season so far

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