On Tuesday, the UAC at 850 hpa moved Northwards, to ultimately merge with the Monsoon axis.
That means, by moving North, it has avoided the Gujarat region, which it was expected to move into on Wednesday.Surat and Bharuch seem to have also been by-passed.
Rainfall has now shifted along the axis. Delhi NCR can expect good precipitation along with adjoining Rajasthan region. Again, rains may creep into H.P. hills.
The axis has slid slightly southwards along the Rajasthan/Delhi/ UP and North Orissa line.
The 2 day very heavy rainfall patch in Coastal Karnatak and adjoining North Kerala ( Vythri =223 mms) and Southern most Konkan (figures put up by Pradeep)was surprising and largely unexpected.
A brief technical Analysis of the 2 day downppour (without going into too much details):
Though vagaries had mentioned of a "lift" in the trough (on Tuesday), which actually occured on Sunday/Monday, the strengthening was to the extent of vertical depth of -40. This was very breifly mentioned in vagaries on Monday.But, charts show, which ,frankly, i studied after the event, the vorticity at 850 hpa level 80. (raised to -5).
On seeing the maps of Sunday/Monday, i find the wind shear to be unusually low in the coastal Karnataka region, and the Lifted Condensation Level is seen at only 200 meters, and free Convection level fell to 300 meters. This aided with a off shore favourable CAPE, as the charts show, brought in a spell of very heavy rains ranging from 300-500 mms/day, as Preadeep has shown.
Let me admit, this is just an after "the happening "analysis. It was never pre-empted nor foreseen.
Such is the suddenness and Magic (and Vagaries) of Weather! Keeps you always interested and on your toes.
Is full of Surprises for the Weather enthusiasts!
Massive Rains in Karnataka (Drought to Floods within 3 days)...From Pradeep.
The monsoon that played traunt for more than a year is in full vigour in western Karnataka reviving the lost hopes of people. The Malnad belt of the state from Belgaum district to Kodagu and coastal areas received heavy rains. Karnataka as a state recording a whopping 175% surplus across the four geographical regions in the last 24-hours ending 8.30am today. Malnad and coastal parts including Dakshina Kannada bore the brunt recording 360% and 152% departure respectively from normal weighted average while south-interior and north-interior Karnataka received 86% and 34% surplus rainfall.
24 hrs Rainfall Figures
Some of the 24hrs rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 07.08.2012 are as follows
Karauru - 337
Indabettu - 308
Mastikatte - 265
Yadur - 238
Hulikal - 235
Kammardi - 229
Mani - 228
Nariyandada - 222
Thirthahalli - 210
Umbalamani - 203
Devanahalli - 203
Bandal - 203
Kollur - 201
Kalasa - 200
Kalasa - 197
Sringeri - 196
Meguda - 196
Hebri - 190
Siddapura - 187
Subramanya - 187
Vanagur - 187
Dharmasthala - 180
Hosanagara - 180
Jayapura - 180
Koppa - 180
Talaguppa - 170
Agumbe - 172
Other Massive Rainfall Figures
Some of the other massive rainfall stats in past two days are as follows as on 8.30 am on 06.08.2012 -
Birunani - 559 mm
Parakatageri - 508 mm
Teralu - 305 - mm
Further, Nagara recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs ending 05.08.2012
Bisile, Kempuhole, Moorukannugudda, Kenchanakumari and the Bajemane reserve forest received 600 mm of rainfall in the 36 hours ending 05.08.2012
Linganamakki reservoir has reached 1,779 feet against the maximum level of 1,819 feet
Kabini stood at 2,277.35 feet as against the maximum of 2,284 feet.
Harangi reservoir reached 2,856.79 feet against the full level of 2,859 feet
Bhadra reservoir too increased to 150.50 tmc ft against maximum of 186 feet