Thursday, August 30, 2012


Synoptic situation as on Thursday:

The monsoon axis slides south, specially the eastern end. The eastern end of the axis passes thru the low off the North AP coast. 
However, the westernend is tilted Northwards in the Sindh region of Pakistan. It runs from Sindh thru Kota (Rajasthan) and thru Sagar (MP) and into the low.

Now, we have a double dose of systems. 
Exactly above the sea level low is an UAC at 850 hpa, and the trough aloft at 850hpa runs from the low westwards thru Southern MP and Northern Mah. 
Finally it runs into an fresh UAC at 700 hpa, formed Thursday evening off the North Mah coast. 

A multiple swift trough formation is seen as very benficial to the Northern Mah and Northern Marathwada regions. Aurangabad recorded 78 mms of rain till 5.30 pm Thursday. The Interiors of Northern Mah were also receiving very good rainfall Thursday...posted @ 8.40pm.

The western end continues to precipitate thundershowers in Sindh, and Karachi finally gets its first showers of the monsoon. A fresh thunderstorm lashed Karachi in the evning again. Rain measured is 12 mms....


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Latest : A low has formed in the Bay off the East coast at 19N. (Was estimated only by Vagaries about a week back).
Also expecting an UAC (and maybe a low) in the trough off the west coast soon...
3 day forecast and details tonite...posted @3.30pm Thursday

x---------------------x---------------------x------------------------x---------------------------------x
The UAC in the Bay off AP coast could descend as a sea level low today (Thursday). Vagaries shall number it once it descends. 
There is a likely hood of an UAC forming in the west coast trough...posted @9.00am Thursday

The western end of the axis has shifted towards the Central Sindh (Pakistan ) region, but weakened since yesterday. Possibility of thundershowers still on in pockets of southern and central Sindh.

Maharashtra, Mumbai, Pune reservoir levels updated as on 29th August..Mumbai Page.

16 comments:

venkatesh said...

Hi Pradeep,

Any update on TN,Karnataka rainfall.
Looks like yesterday it rained heavily in both these states.

NT said...

Hi Rajeshbhai, what's the update for the next 3/4 days for Mumbai?

pavan said...

SIR,
what about supercyclone news which some anony has mentioned that to he predicted abt mid october, can some body predict the rains for pune today i do not need the fore cast of mod october

pavan said...

mod rain in pune may be upto 10mm

Vijayanand said...

Raining is south bangalore. Dark clouds coming in from west. Typical SWM rain.

Arpit Sharma said...

Light rain today in Ghaziabad upto 5 mms.

NT said...

The Doppler radar showing heavy rains around Modak Sagar with a small area showing rainfall intensity of around 90 mms/hr, looks to be a heavy thunderstorm. The sky at Andheri has taken a 'yellow look' indicating an upcoming Thunderstorm in the area.

The cloud top tempereature map shows Mumbai and surroounding areas to be covered by cloud tops of -60

Abhijit Modak said...

@ NT. Yes. From today morning itself only the stage was setting for Thunder cell building as I already posted photo of changing weather condition on vagaries fb group. Badlapur having slight thundering with thick drops falling from past 1hr.

Abhijit Modak said...

Many places of Nashik, Ahmednagar, Pune, Thane & Raigad districts have received convective thundery rains from late afternoon and some area started to getting now .

svt said...

Mumbai should get bountiful rain till 8 sept atleast. Whats your forecast for next week or so? Btw raining heavily in Dadar for last 20 mins.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur having irritating rain intensity just 1mm/hr till now. From 5.30pm it's drizzling or can say just thick drops. So just 4mm from 5.30pm till 9.30pm . But North & Central Thane district are receiving good heavy rains.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur having irritating rain intensity that is just 1mm/hr.
So from 5.30pm to 9.30pm just 4mm measured here as just thick drops or light drizzle going on continuous.
But North & Central Thane district having good heavy rains.

rajesh said...

very heavy rains since 20 mins here at mahalaxmi...

Pavan said...

Lol! Just enjoy mr abhijit, for a person like u who is really love nature should love each drop of it, ask some person from drought hit area what is the value of that drop we enjoy 1mm for days! Wont mind

NT said...

Continuous light rains since 8:00 PM here at Juhu, mild thunder started around 9:15 PM lasting for 20-30 mins

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pavan. Ya.. Correct said.. But we in Konkan region don't like to see just drops or spray as we are not use to it like interior Maharashtra region. And today conditions are different as clouds gushing from NE side and mild breeze too from NE here with mild lightening & thundery activity.