Friday, August 17, 2012

BB3 stationary but deepens to 998 mb as on Saturday Morning...associated clouding in S/SW quadrant. Covering Orissa and Northern AP (as estimated). Now, let wait and see if Hyderabad gets the predicted rains.

Bangalore Readers, Very Good and Easy to Understand Analysis of Bangalore Rainfall done with meticulous hard Work by GSB: see Inter Active Page...Thanks.


A Low (BB3) has formed along the Orissa coast, with its centre near Bhubaneshwar.
Now, with the formation of BB3, i had mentioned it necessary to monitor the axis.
Well, the axis has moved further North, and is almost snugged into the Himalayan foothills.
As the SE winds strengthen the Hills with moisture, the states of HP, Utteranchal and Western Nepal can expect heavy rains from Sunday. Local streams and rivers can get flooded.

24 comments:

rajesh said...

Pradeep: Chennai got 13 mms, KEA recorded 13 mms, MKB 2 mms, Ennore 2 mms,madhavram 2 mms. Trying to cope up with you in your field-:))

giriraj said...

Dear Mr. Rajesh can you throw some light on the probability of BB3 reaching and drenching parched saurashtra region??

rajesh said...

giriraj:I have mentioned BB3 will fade away by sunday over MP..its in the previous article.

Anonymous said...

Rajeshsir, Can we expect rainfall in Solapur & Nagar District in the month of Aug & Sep

GSB said...

I have done some basic analysis of the Bangalore data that was with me..

I dividied the year into FOUR SEASONS suitable for Banglore..

1.JAN and FEB (WINTER)
2.MAR to MAY (PRE MONSOON)
3.JUN to SEP (SW MONSOON)
4.OCT to DEC (NE MONSOON)

I then divided the data set of 1900 to 2004 into four periods..

1.1900 to 1925
2.1926 to 1950
3.1951 to 1975
4.1976 to 2004

These were the findings;

SEASON ONE (JAN and FEB)
---------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 15 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 19 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 2 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 9 MM

SEASON TWO (MAR to MAY)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 106 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 154 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 141 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 176 MM

SEASON THREE (JUN to SEP)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 411 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 402 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 360 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 553 MM

SEASON FOUR (OCT to DEC)
----------------------------------
1. PERIOD ONE (1900 to 1925)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 186 MM

2. PERIOD TWO (1926 to 1950)..
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 222 MM

3. PERIOD THREE (1951 to 1975)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 213 MM

4. PERIOD FOUR (1976 to 2004)
AVERAGE RAINFALL ...... 221 MM

AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL
-----------------------------------
PERIOD ONE …….. 718 MM
PERIOD TWO …….. 797 MM
PERIOD THREE ….. 716 MM
PERIOD FOUR ……. 959 MM

OBSERVATIONS (upto 2004 only)
-----------------------------------
1. SEASON ONE rainfall has reduced in the last 100 years.
2. SEASON TWO rainfall has increased in the last 100 years.
3.SEASON THREE after showing decrease in PERIOD THREE has increased significantly in PERIOD FOUR.
4. SEASON FOUR is relatively stable over the entire period.
5. ANNUAL RAINFALL(AVG) has increased in PERIOD FOUR.

If the data is erroneous or my observations are faulty please let me know. I think debate over Bangalore rainfall should be settled once and for all.

junaid said...

@rajesh ,,wen will the wet phase of mjo begin???

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur was having less CB clouds formation and almost sky got clear after 4pm but at night clouds gathered and drizzle noted then today early morning too brief medium spell noted . So overall in past 24hrs, 6mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Shitij said...

Yesterday weather was partly cloudy but at night clouds gathered and light drizzle was reported in some parts of city.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I want to know what is the relation between night weather and rains ! I am noticing it from 15aug at least in Badlapur region that rains are limited to midnight or early morning before sunsrise period only ! Day time almost goes dry or only trace mark but nights or early morning 3 to 6am period produces rains and thus when we woke up see all wet around !

PRASAD GODASE said...

When there is rain in ahmadmagar and pune ? This district are completely dry from a more than week.

PRASAD GODASE said...

@rajesh:-when the wet mjo phase will start ? also give the details when there is rain in madya mharashtra specially in ahamadnagar and pune .more than week this district are almost no rain.

rajesh said...

GSB: Thanks for the analysis, put up on Inter Active Page (word to word) for easier access to readers...

due to computer and technical glitch, i have lost some of my Mumbai records. Do you have rain details of Mumbai for last 50 years..especially i want of 1968, one of the lowest rainfall years in recent times. Thanks.

rajesh said...

prasad: Weak MJO may end by 24th i think...i have put up my views on interior mah. yesterday.
this system may not reach pune regions.

Vijayanand said...

GSB,
Superb analysis of bangalore rains. It must have taken a lot of effort from your side. Good job.

Pavan said...

Good job by GSB, waitng for sset to comment

Anonymous said...

Yesterday Dharamsala got around 19 cms of rain and the rest places of the state received less than 1 cm of rain.Dehradun also recorded 8 cms of rain and rest places of the state got not even 1 cm of rain.Is there something special for the clouds to burst there only?

GSB said...

Thank you Rajesh sir, Vijayanand and Pavan for your kind comments.

I am infact a data freak right since my college days.. At my work which is in the stock market I do these kind of historical analysis for all kinds of products ... SENSEX, NIFTY,GOLD,CRUDE OIL, COPPER, DOW JONES, US TEN YEAR BOND YIELDS, EARNINGS RATIOS ETC.. I just love doing that.

Rajesh sir I am going to do the Mumbai historical analysis probably next week but even I am not getting the 100 year data of Mumbai.. whatever I have I will try to present followed by a data dump in the comments section.. in case you want me to mail it to you first (I have your email from you earlier posts) please let me know..

Arun Kumar said...

Dear Rajesh

you can find the information about the mumbai in this link
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Bombay_Santacruz/430030.htm

sset said...

Good work GSB. Annual rain of 700-800mm - in many times it was also 300-400mm which is quite less compared to places like Jaisalmer,Kutch receiving in past 5 years. (2005-2011)

This year anyway it may come to only 150mm (june-nov). My observation is in past 5 years (2005-2011) south interior karanataka,Rayalseema,adjoining TN - are more affected by decreasing and uncertain rain patterns which is quite sync with what is happening over Sri Lanka - cyclic droughts.


Interesting link which talks about cyclic changes. (todays Bangalore times)

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/Wetlands-are-getting-less-and-less-rainfall/articleshow/15540443.cms

Regards

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy spell on over Badlapur. And photos of how local spells which erupts at mountains and as clouds travel from SW to NE direction, so Badlapur is first to experience that spell is posted on Vagaries of weather group on FB.

rajesh said...

Arun Kumar: Thanks for the link..again the wanted year 1968 seems to be missing -:)
GSB: you may mail it to me...subsequently i found some of my old records ..but, as you know, i have been collecting records for 45 years, and initially i had them on floppies, and most of them are wiped out...a very important old file got deleted out of my hard disk by mistake thru format change...am very poor in handling these things..

sset said...

Link sent by Arun Kumar - Seems 2011rain figures are bit less - Mumbai received > 3500mm. OR I am wrong?

Anonymous said...

Everyone is wasting time over bangalore and pesimistic sset eventhough GSB Has given wonerful data of bangalore but that fellow is still comparing the place to jaisalmer and kutch very sincere request to sset beter u get rid of these weather blog if it really didnt rain in bangalore this year and next year then the city will not become desert but definately you will become mad!! Sorry for these words but i had to.

Pavan said...

Oh oh, again some .......0:-(
anony i do know who r u and whr r u frm, all fingers are not same just be optimist it will definately rain.