Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Night Update: UAC formed over Bay off Orissa coast.

But, do not expect axis to move South. Low may form and track along axis and merge into it.
So, break monsoon conditions from tomorrow south of axis will start and continue next 4 days. 
West coast weak rains continue for this week. Interior Mah, and interior South Peninsula rains decrease considerably.

Thursday: 
Mumbai will be sunny with partly cloud cover at times. Warm day rising to 32/33c. Rain Amount: 5-7 mms in areas where it showers.

Chennai: The "popping" up of thundershowers decreases after Thursday.

Latest Drought (improved) position Map as on 15th Aug. Put up with 5th Aug map for comparison..on Current Weather Page

A Low can form the Bay on 16th evening..off the Orissa coast. May be initially at 1000 mb, with likely hood of deepening later.
Vagaries had estimated a low after 12th in the August forecast.http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2012/08/special-monsoon-watch-for-august.html

As the axis has moved North, i would not like to comment on the track today, maybe we see the axis behavior by tomorrow. 
HP has recieved heavy rains, with Kullu getting 33 mms and Manali getting 48 mms, and Simla 25 mms, Dharamsala 39 mms and Chandigarh 21 mms till Wednesday morning.

23 comments:

Anon said...

i think with this low pressure..places like rajasthan will get much needed rain.

rajesh said...

anon: Rajastahn is getting good rains last few days..Ajmer got 109 mms and Jaisalmer 75 mms and Mt.Abu 74 mms yesterday.

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sir,
Nope we did not receive any rain in bangalore yesterday.
Its quite warm today. So far no rain.

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sir,
Nope we did not receive any rain in bangalore yesterday.
Its quite warm today. So far no rain.

Vijayanand

Pavan said...

In pune clouds changd their direction towards s se a thunder cel has formd towards s se, may be huge amt of precipitation going on towrds saswad satara, appears to be local convetn whch s usually seen during late august

Shitij said...

Cloud cover has decreased tremondously.Today weather was humid and uncomfortable. From the past 2 days no rain in Surat.

sset said...

Exactly correct Rajan Alex, past years south interior karanataka (Bang,mysore,mandya...) are receiving very less rains due to SWM, NEM currents are weak to reach interiors, major rains occur due to only pre-monsoon (local convections) and not proper monsoons. But this year even pre-monsoon rains have eluded - NEM depends again how it goes.


Past 2 days sun is hot in Bangalore - scares me as summer approaching!!!

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/271493/amagaon-now-cherrapunji-south.html

Places like Sangmeshwar,Gaganbawada have replace Augumbe, so is Amagaon.

Thanks

sset said...

In fact Rajan Sir - climate of Bangalore in 70s was very different as 2000s. Trees,lakes,cold/wet days are replaced by concrete mess,complete loss of lakes/trees - it is very prominent.

Other point september (suppose to be rainest month for Bang, in past few years has not given much measurable rains)

Pradeep said...

Chennai and surrounding Region Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 15.08.2012
--------------------
Tiruttani – 80
RK Pet Agro – 59
Sholingur – 50
Thiruvalangadu – 50
Arakonam – 40
Kadambathur – 39
Korrattur – 28
RK pet (IMD) – 28
Uthukkottai (Entry Point) – 25
Tiruvallur – 20
Tamaraipakkam – 18
Poondi Agro – 17
Poonamalle – 15
Ellapuram – 15
Katpadi – 12
Chembarbakkam – 8
Red Hills – 7
Puzhal – 7
Poondi Lake – 6
Cholavaram – 5
Madhavaram – 3
Kolapakkam (near Chennai AP) – 3
Nungambakkam (Chennai City) – 2

rajesh said...

Pavan: No thundercell seen on doppler radar..should be seen as per your description..otherwise could be a cirrus anvil ?

Rajan/sset: now let Mr.Rajan analyse the 100 year data..maybe with e graph to show changes in rainfall, if any.

Thanks Pradeep...15th August rain toppers awaited please

Pradeep said...

The wet phase of MJO begins only during the last week of August

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html

Chennai has good days ahead till September 30

These are the Worst SWM for Chennai since 2000

155 mm (upto 15.08.12)

233 mm (2009)
337 mm (2005)
355 mm (2002)
360 mm (2004)
393 mm (2006)
420 mm (2003)
423 mm (2008)
484 mm (2001)

Can 2012 overtake all the above SWM years and a Can we get 300 mm in next 45 days

i dont think we can go past 2001, but all other years it is possible.

Pradeep said...

SSET, thanks for the Amagaon link.

I never knew the place. Will publish it in my bblog

Ron said...

damn when will it start raining in mumbai??Not one 100mm above rain in mumbai this year..is the axis expected to shift south anytime soon??

Satyen Rohitkumar said...

It's gone totally dry here since yesterday evening. Totally clear skies. Forget rain clouds - not even a small white loud visible anywhere!

Rajan Alexander said...

SSET: Do the 100 year analysis and share with rest of us your finding. You can publish it in Vagaries or in my blog or both.

A decade ago, I did the same in Chitradurga and that's what I found SW Monsoon rainfall slightly decreasing; NE Monsoon rainfall slightly increasing cancelling each other out in effect. Now this change that does not have any major impact on annual rainfall could have significant impact on agriculture.

"Past 2 days sun is hot in Bangalore - scares me as summer approaching!!" Which part of Bangalore do you stay? I stay in East.

"Trees,lakes,cold/wet days are replaced by concrete mess,complete loss of lakes/trees - it is very prominent."

Yes the Green belt has gone and so are lakes replaced by concrete masses. But that does not affect rainfall. What it does is that in combination with indiscriminate groundwater mining, lowers the water table, which in turn affects the soil moisture.

Rainwater harvesting is picking up and if made mandatory should at least partially mitigate groundwater depletion problem

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur was having thundery like heads yellowish type clouds almost for whole day prominently over West & NW directions. Few where also converting in black but not in large clouds so just it would become windy from NW at time of black formation and then just thick drops or drizzle would be noticed. So in past 24hrs, just 3mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am). After many days or even can say after months period just single digit rain figure is measured here.

Vijayanand said...

Rajesh,

We received nice rain last evening from 5.50 to 6.10. In Jayanagar , JP Nagar , BTM layout and Bannerghata road of South Bangalore it rained. Not sure about other parts.
It was warm during the days. But skies opened up later.
Today is also quite warm to start with.

Pradeep said...

Rains lashed for 3rd straight day around Chennai region

Preliminary rainfall figures ending 8.30 am ending 16.08.2012

Cheyyur – 51
Shollinganallur (Sathyabama University) – 39
RK Pet Agro – 37
Katpadi – 30
Madhavaram – 15
Tiruvallur – 14
RK Pet (IMD) – 14
Nungambakkam (Kea Metsite) – 9
Kadambathur – 9
Taramani – 6
Poondi - 6
Kolapakkam (Back of Airport) – 6
Uttiramerur – 6
Nungambakkam (IMD) – 5
Poonamalle – 5
Madurantakam – 4
Puzhal – 3

Pavan said...

dear mr. pradeep, its good to see about amagoan, but there may be many unregisterd stations where in there is no proper communication to register the rain fall pl do get the rainfall of, kulem(goa) molem(goa), anmod(karnataka, a place on nh4 before the ghats from ramnagar climatic conditions same as castlerock), codal(goa), kodarfarm(goa) opa(goa), kankumbi(karnataka), chandranath hill(chavdi, highest peak in goa), caranzol(goa karnataka border only access by rail, a station between castlerock and dudhsagar waterfalls), sonelium, nanorem, derodem( all goa karnataka border), anjunem lake(goa, near satari), here are the places which i know, and i do know places in meghalaya and subhimalayan west bengal and sikkim which are undiscovered

Vijayanand said...

Its quite hot in bangalore today. Guess in TN interiors also it must be very hot today.

rajesh said...

pradeep:Pavan has given you loads of work now -:)) Maybe you will have to work on a holiday, or take a day off -:)

Pavan said...

Ha haa!, good job mr pradeep hope u wil just atleast glance on my abve cmt, you list with agumbe and kollur bouncing back will definately make mr.sset to bounce as 15 stations are frm maharastra out of 18, and jaisalmer crossd blore in its figure,
@sset hope very soon we may see camels and oasis in bandipur and bannerghatta

Vijayanand said...

5.30 am this morning:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8&from=imap_refresh

Weather turning murkier for coastal karnataka after a gap of 3 dry days. Mangalore and udupi getting light rains this morning.
Mangalore at 197 cms since June 1st.