Sunday, August 19, 2012


A short burst of rains, i would call it a blip, occured pre dawn, Sunday, over the Mumbai and surroundings. 

BB3, effect managed to direct some moisture along a small 100 km areas (North/South) and brought moderate rains. 
Not very heavy. Rest of west coast (including N.Konkan) remained weakish. In fact Scruz was the highest with 83 mms.The trough is still weak.

As per vagaries' Sunday forecast, Konkan rains were weak during Sunday.
During the day, 8.30pm Sunday, save Dhanu (62 mms), most other stations got less than 5 mms. Mumbai Scruz got 5 mms and Cloaba 2 mms, while Vagaries recorded 25 mms and Mahableshwar got 31 mms in the day.
The expected rains did occur in Vidharbha, with Chandrapur getting 85 mms, Gondia 59 mms, Yeotmal 31 mms and Nagpur 13 mms during the day , Sunday.

What next with BB3 ?...coming up around mid night......



Rains slow down in Mumbai in the day time Sunday, with Colaba and Scruz measuring less than 5 mms after 8.30am..vagaries measured 25 mms on Sunday till 5.30pm. True to city day forecast, the city had 2/3 showers in the day, with sunny intervals.

BB3 moved slightly west and at 998 mb is at 82E and 22N, almost same position. 
Initial reports (phone) from Marathwada speak of no rain there..but waiting for more news from farmers.



Yes guys, rains in Mumbai since pre dawn hours Sunday, is the effect of BB3 moving west as a deep low.
Vagaries had predicted aan increase in Mumbai rains Sunday ,if the low deepens and moves west (on Thursday). With both conditions in order, its result is 6 hrs earlier than estimated. (Was  difficult to envisage exact time on Thursday -:))
Anyway, last position of BB3 was almost stationary of previous position given on vagaries, and is at 82E and 22N. and at 996 mb.
With Nagpur getting heavy rains, the Vidharbha rainfall and North AP rains are on as anticipated, and rains will spread to Northern districts of Marathwada. 
Sunday forecast remains valid.

Mumbai colaba measured 27.4 mms, vagaries 45.0 mms and Scruz 82.8 mms till 8.30am Sunday.

Mumbai rains will "slow down " after 11 am Sunday, and brighten up a bit. However, day will remain cloudy, 3/4 showers intersparsed in the day, but showers will be of shorter duration (not intermittent like overnight), and rainfall may be around 25-30 mms (average) next 12 hrs.(See short term forecast)

35 comments:

GSB said...

Good monsoon rains overnight here at Thane. Don't have the figures but Mulund (w) is showing almost 40 mm past 6 hrs. Chembur, Wadala and Dadar are in the 80 to 120 mm range ine the past 6 hrs!!!!!

Pavan said...

pune also receiving continuous drizzles from midnight, very cool rain measuring upto 15mm im many places

Rajan Alexander said...

@SSET. There we have the hard data - proving the claim that Bangalore facing desertification is just a myth. Trees have nothing to do with monsoons.

It is ironic that this myth was perpetuated even at a time when average rainfall in increasing.

I understand you work with the NGO sector and so do I.There are many positions NGOs take which is contrary to hard data. These lies are repeated so often, it is taken as the gospel truth. The normal rank and file do not challenge these assertions obsessed with being seen "politically right"

I too had previously taken many of NGO myths for granted feeling no need to question the "research" of our fellow colleagues. We usually never read beyond the headlines and do not bother to look at data. Often the headlines may say one thing and the data another.

I became a climate skeptic only when I did my own research. From then on, I do not give any unqualified support to common NGO positions





junaid said...

heavy rains since pre dawn at panvel!!! 10 minutes befr we received very heavy shower!!!

Ron said...

started raining heavily around 3am in the morning...now it has resumed again at 12:30...

Ron said...

was just checking how much was mumbai's highest rainfall in a day & wow..82MM is our season's highest for a day...says a lot about the monsoon in mumbai...

emkay said...

@Rajan Alexander well said Sir !! fully endorse ur view, flasehoods being propogated by environmentalists

rajesh said...

emkay: have you noticed in the change in my terminology since last 15 days..its"Short Term Forecast for Mumbai City"..-:)
and it was with an explanation in the blog..must have missed it...

rajan: it convinces us alright. sset can well see your blog and the Global Warming Page Hysteria on vagaries...but sset is also right, trees and nature preservation is a must

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I have Posted Badlapur's Natural surrounding (Nature photos) after rain stopped at 1pm and fog & Misty conditions too got cleared now. So clear view can be seen. And also each geographical directions from mine premises is shown for rough idea.

From 8.30am till 1.30pm today 28mm rain is measured here.

GSB said...

It's good to hear that Rajesh sir's Mumbai data is intact. More than all of us, it his data that is of utmost importance to us..

For all those who are not aware here are a few pointers to safeguarding the important files and data on your computer....

1. Always use an original OS. I have been using Win XP for almost 7/8 years and I have had very little problems as I constantly update the OS from the company website..

2. If you have one hard disk (not advisable at all) make four partitions C D E and F. On C drive (which should be about 20/30 GB in size not more) install your OS. DO NOT INSTALL ANY OTHER PROGRAMMES ON THIS DRIVE unless that option is unavailable.

3. Install all your other programmes on the D drive only.

4. The E drive can be only for your work related data and software and F drive only for media,photos and back up. Therefore make sure the E drive is the largest partition on the hard disk.

5. For back up download Allway Sync (free version suitable upto 40000 scans in a month). Back up using this software every month on the same date.

6. Ideally you should have more than one drive, preferabally two or maybe even three. If you have three drives make the third your backup drive only.

7. You can store your very imp files online at Hotmail (sky drive) where 25 GB of free storage is available.

8. MOST IMP... Buy an anti virus package like Net Protector (3 years validity should cost about Rs.1500) and update every alternate day if it dosen't do it automatically. Do a memory scan every week and a full computer scan every month. For Malware attacks use Malwarebytes (free).

9. Use these programmes for additional safety.. CCleaner , Wise Registry cleaner, Wise Disk cleaner and run them every week.

10. To be sure your hard disks are running in good condition use Crystaldiskinfo.On this programme, IF THE HEALTH STATUS OF ANY OF YOUR HARD DISKS SHOWS BAD (RED COLOUR) TAKE A FULL BACKUP immediately and get the disk checked with your vendor or engineer.

Please do not ask me any questions as I will not reply to any specific queries.. remember this is a weather related blog ONLY!!!

GSB

suresh said...

Rajesh sir, you were completely offmark today for predicting rains for Maharashtra, north konkan & Mumbai

Arpit Sharma said...

Eagerly waiting for the forecast of next three days. Seems that delhi-NCR could get some good showers in the coming 3-4 days.

Arpit Sharma said...

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/distforecast/delhi.htm
Showing around 120mms of rain for delhi-NCR for the next 5 days.

Shitij said...

Today weather is partly cloudy. Weather is more hot and humid as compared to yesterday's weather. From the past few days no rain in Surat.I have posted the picture of halo which was seen yesterday in Surat.

Arpit Sharma said...

This kind of halo can be regularly seen in northwestern india during the winter season.

Anonymous said...

@suresh- going into the thursday blog, I saw Rajesh sir had judged increase in rains in bombay on Sunday, but by afternoon. It started wee hours of morning..we can allow him that much allowance i feel.

Shitij said...

Weather is changing rapidly. I think that heavy rain should start falling within the next 15-20 min.

Abhijit Modak said...

49mm Rain measured here in Badlapur from 8.30am till 5.30pm today.

Today Full day Continuous Rain drizzling consistently and medium to heavy rain in between except 1hr stop between 1 to 2pm.

GSB said...

Rajesh sir one of my posts has probably gone into spam mode as it is not visible..

It was about protecting data on PC and good advice for everyone... can you check?

Abhijit Modak said...

Some Rain figures of 8.30am today(i.e 19/08/2012) of near by towns around Mumbai region.

Panvel 100mm
Thane 60mm
Matheran& Badlapur(own measured)50mm
Karjat 30mm
Ulhasnagar & Kalyan 20mm
Ambernath & Bhiwandi 10mm

Source is from IMD.

emkay said...

Rajesh, forgive me, i know ur predictions r limited to mumbai and panvel is outside purview unless specifically mentioned. But my exuberance was considering mumbai also coming under rain early morning. Your rainfall stats indicate Mumbai conditions different from Navi Mumbai post noon.

RK said...

Highly humid, cloudy, with no wind and not a drop of rain....weather is too uncomfortable today at G.Noida. Either it should rain or open up :/

Ron said...

can anyone get deonar rain figures as well pls??

Kaneyen said...

Dear all,
As Rajan Alexander pointed out there is NO correlation / relation with trees [forest] and rainfall. Monsoon is a large scale weather system and reactions between ocean, land & atmosphere is to be ONLY considered for better understanding of mesoscale weather system.
Each monsoon especially each SWM has its own distinctive / unique features and differs from each other.
My good old friend now a class teacher in a small town [Bodinayakanur] used to correlate rainfall with student's attendance and proved that more rainfall less students and proved it with lesser standard deviation. This is true.

sset said...

correct Modakji, my parents from Navi Mumbai - Belapur called me - continous non stop rains.

Here at Bangalore- standing from balcony, I can just see hot sun with no clouds - days are hot - no rain in sight with september approaching.

Thanks RajanSir. By the way, myself not an NGO, but belong to IT sector. Being stayed at Mumbai/Navi Mumbai dense green forest areas for long time, tree plantation has always been hobbby for me. Hence at bangalore with saytrees.com we peform tree plantation work. As you know here BBMP,BDA perform large scale tree cutting very different from Mumbai NMMC,MMRDA,CIDCO who are known for good green hands.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Kaneyan. But I strongly believe trees , forest and Mountain ranges also plays an important role in rainfall pattern. I am monitoring rain patterns in mountain ranges area with lots of forest in it and non mountain regions rain data closely. If trees, forest & mountains do not play important roles and only ocean, land & atmosphere plays role in rainfall pattern then Western ghat places like Mahabaleshwar, Gaganbavada, Amboli, Tamhini, Matheran and all other western ghats places of India and Cherrapunji would not be getting heavy rains than other places !

Abhijit Modak said...

So I want to say Trees, Forest & Mountains are also equally important factors in atmosphere. I have noticed many times when there is no system present like Low, Uac or off shore trough then also some localized factors develops rain in mountainous and forest region.

Vinod said...

Rajeshsir, any expetions of rainfall in solapur, Osmanabad & Nagar district due to BB3

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur has measured 52mm rains from 8.30am till 10.30pm period today. So Mumbai rain may have taper off from morning but Thane district continued to get rain for whole day even Thane city too got 32mm rain till evening today as per ABP majha news. Same news is shared on vagaries of weather group on FB page.

Pradeep said...

Pavan said...

dear mr. pradeep, its good to see about amagoan, but there may be many unregisterd stations where in there is no proper communication to register the rain fall pl do get the rainfall of, kulem(goa) molem(goa), anmod(karnataka, a place on nh4 before the ghats from ramnagar climatic conditions same as castlerock), codal(goa), kodarfarm(goa) opa(goa), kankumbi(karnataka), chandranath hill(chavdi, highest peak in goa), caranzol(goa karnataka border only access by rail, a station between castlerock and dudhsagar waterfalls), sonelium, nanorem, derodem( all goa karnataka border), anjunem lake(goa, near satari), here are the places which i know, and i do know places in meghalaya and subhimalayan west bengal and sikkim which are undiscovered

1:49 PM, August 16, 2012
--------------------------------------

Dear Pavan,

On behalf of Vageries and Tamilnadu Weatherman readers,

I will be posting the Rainfall data for month ending August 30, 2012 for the following HRF stations

1.Amagaon (New Cherrapunji of South India)
2.Castle Rock (around 4000 mm till date in 2012 SWM)
3.Gavali
4.Nilkund (around 4000 mm till date in 2012 SWM)
5.Kanakumbi (around 4000 mm till date in 2012 SWM)
6.Talacavery


Dont miss the august end rainfall figures.

rajesh said...

vinod:no effect now..BB3 moving away. Put up in latest blog.

Pavan said...

Dear mr pradeep.
I can just say thankyou

Kaneyen said...

Shri. Modak,
You place consider all heavy rainfall regions in the world. It may be true that that height of the mountain [especially between 1000 to 1500 m say at 850 hPa level and definitely within the PBL {Planet Boundary Layer ie 2000 meter amsl] level place an important role in determining heavy rainfall. I had been to cherapunji and it is a land with barren rocks and mountains with less forest. On contrary the evergreen rain forest is mainly due to is rainfall there and not vice versa. It has been time and again proved that forest have no direct connection with rainfall

Kaneyen said...

Shri. Modak,
You please consider all heavy rainfall regions in the world. It may be true that that height of the mountain [especially between 1000 to 1500 m,say at 850 hPa level and definitely within the PBL {Planet Boundary Layer ie 2000 meter amsl] level plays an important role in determining heavy rainfall. I had been to cherapunji and it is a land with barren rocks and mountains with less forest. On contrary the evergreen rain forest is mainly due to is rainfall there and not vice versa. It has been time and again proved that forest have no direct connection with rainfall

Anonymous said...

there is no direct link between rainfall and forest.however forest act as a element in reducing carbon-di-oxide in the atmosphere. sometimes temperature may become one of the factors in determining rainfall at that place. however orientation of the mountain range,oracraphic effect,low level jet plays vital roll in heavy rainfall region.