Thursday, August 30, 2012

Friday/Saturday/Sunday city forecast posted below stands valid...
Posted @ 8.50 pm Friday:

BB5 ( 998 mb) lies at 20N and 77E as on Friday afternoon. Axis slides south -eastwards from the Sindh region. 
The proposed "sympathetic  in conjunction" low (998 mb)  has formed to the North end of the trough, embedded in the axis over the Eastern Gujarat region. Clouding excessive in the SW and West quadrants. Sindh wind shear is effective.

See Current Weather Page for August performance and city wise analysis.

UAC strong at 700 hpa off Mumbai at 5.30am Friday.

Synopsis:
The Bay Low is numbered as BB5. It has tracked inland, and at 998 mb is over Orissa. 

The UAC off the west coast will persist next 3 days. May form a "sympathetic" low (slight chance) off the Northern part of west coast. But, persistent trough aloft across North Mah will remain, and axis will be around the same position as long as the low BB5 remains and tracks west.
Rainfall in Saurashtra decreasing after Saturday. Friday will see medium rains.
The off shore trough off the East coast has moved away from the land.

City Forecasts for this weekend:Friday, 31st August/Saturday 1st Sept/Sunday 2nd Sept.
Mumbai: Heavy overnight rains (Thursday Night) might Average 35-40 mms.
Actual:
South Mumbai had heavy overnight rains, accompanied by loud thunder and lightening. As per the official station at Colaba, it was 112 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Friday, amounting to 107 mms at night after 8.30 pm Thursday. Vagaries recording was 47.4 mms till 8.30 am Friday. Dadar had 45 mms at night.
AWS stations show highest at Nariman Point, 125 mms in 12 hrs till 8.30 am Friday.
These heavy overnight rains forecasted by vagaries, totally skipped the suburbs, with Scruz recording just 10 mms at night, and 11 mms till 8.30 am Friday.

Friday:
Overcast with showers in the day. Thunder in the evening with heavy showers. Rain amount till 8.30am Saturday: 25 mms (Avg).

Actual: A thundershower in South Mumbai in the evening. Rainfall: Colaba 24 mms, Scruz 12 mms. Avg= 18 mms.

Saturday: Overcast and increase in rain intensity over Friday. Thunder possible with showers. Windy at times. Rain amount: 35-40 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy with intermittent rains. Showers will be heavy and frequent. Rainamount: 35-40 mms.

Pune: 
Friday: Cloudy, getting more in the afternoon. Thunder and rain in the evening. Rain amount (heavy in pockets and widely distributed in different araes), but average 15 mms.
Actual : Showers in various parts. Rainfall: 17 mms.

Saturday/Sunday: overcast with cool day. Rain in the day will be about 10 mms.

Nagpur:
Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a couple of Showers in the day.Rain amounts around 5-7 mms.
Sunday: Increase in rainfall, with thundershowers. Rains will be around 25 mms. 
Marathwada reion gets rainfall on Friday thru Saturday evening.

Delhi: 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Not very consistent rains. All days will be cloudy with possible thunder and rain in the day. Different areas will get varied intensity, but there will be pockets of heavy rainfall in some areas. But on an average, the capital region should recieve about 10-15 mms /day.

Surat: heavy showers overnight.
Friday: cloudy with heavy showers in some parts. Light rain will be persisting. Rain amount: 30 mms.
Actual :Heavy rains with 17 mms .
Saturday/Sunday: Increase in rain frequency, with several showers in the day. Rain amount: 20 -30 mms/day.

.
Chennai: Not much meaningful rains this weekend. Except for the isolated rainshower in some areas, rains will not average more than 5 mms/day, in areas where it rains.

Bangalore: 
Friday/Saturday: A couple of showers. Rain amount 5 mms.
Actual: Some showers measuring 2 mms.
Sunday: A slight increase in rains as thundershowers appear on Sunday afternoon with 10-15 mms.

26 comments:

svt said...

Will there be even more increase in rain than you predicted for next 3 days for Mumbai if 'sympathetic low' forms?

GSB said...

Hardly any rain here in Thane city and Godhbundar Road. Total for city is only 4mm since 00 am today.

Pavan said...

Mr pradeep its 30th i am waiting fr the list

Abhijit Modak said...

Its seem that South Mumbai has got very heavy rains last night. As AWS showing Colaba, Nariman Point & CST belt getting rains between 70 to 100mm in past 12hrs !

Here in Badlapur had just steady drizzles from 5.30pm till 1.30am today.Now Foggy & Misty conditions here. Fog & Mist snaps of today 8.20am on Vagaries FB Group.

So overall Badlapur records 10mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 31-08-2012).

Anonymous said...

Sir GFS showing Heavy Rain in Karachi,Sindh After 4 September Do u think the BOB Low would reach our area and maintain its intensity >??

Anonymous said...

Sir GFS showing Heavy Rain in Karachi,Sindh After 4 September Do u think the BOB Low would reach our area and maintain its intensity >??

Anonymous said...

Sir GFS showing Heavy Rain in Karachi,Sindh After 4 September Do u think the BOB Low would reach our area and maintain its intensity >??

junaid said...

rains skipped panvel also !!! Only light rains nd drizzles in the nyt!!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Not only Mumbai suburbs but near by towns like Thane, Kalyan, Ulhasnagar, Badlapur & Karjat area was also skipped just thundering & lightening with just consistent drizzles in overnight period. So Badlapur too just records 10mm ending 8.30am.

svt said...

I think UAC has moved away westward away from mumbai. Most of the heavy rains right now happening away from Mumbai coast in the Arabian sea.But we should get good rain tomorrow coz off shore through.

emkay said...

Please read the edit in BusinessLine today
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/article3840546.ece

Ron said...

Met recorded 112mm rain in colaba area...can anyone confirm that??Meanwhile scz got just 12mm rain..our first 100+ rain in mumbai...

NT said...

Hi Rajeshbhai, you are right, SCZ did not recieve very heavy rains. I was out from 3:00 AM up untill 5:00 AM to recieve relatives at the international airport. There was no thunder, I could see some lightning time to tIme but nothing significant.

I had noticed since the evening looking at the Doppler radar that small pockets were recieving very heavy rains while the surrounding areas looked to recieve light rains so this difference in Mumbai rains is not very surprising.

rajesh said...

svt: Yes, rains will be more if a low forms. And the trough has swayed to the west today morning. But that could be temporary.
Ron/NT: I was also taken aback by the big variation in rains between clb and scruz.
But, for clarification, i find AWS recording at Nariman point to be 125 mms.
Stations nearby compare with vagaries as Byculla showed 65 mms, Worli 45 mms and vagaries (Mahalaxmi) 47 mmms,Dadar showed 45 mms.
Rain intensity at mahalaxmi was heavy between 4'15 am and 5.0 am.
People contacted living near RC Church and Colaba say "there was heavy rain at night", But thats vague....

Anonymous said...

raining moderate/heavily at borivali (west) since 12.30pm

Anonymous said...

raining here in kandivali.are you putting up list by pradeep sir ?

Abhijit Modak said...

Just now huge thunder sound from SE direction of Badlapur

Anonymous said...

From CNN

Long, hot summer sends food prices soaring

A summer of droughts and extreme temperatures across the world threaten the planet's most vulnerable people, as food prices rise.

A new report from the World Bank has revealed global food prices soared by 10% in July, with staples such as maize and soybean increasing by 25% to an all-time high.

The drought-hit United States -- the world's largest exporter of grains such as maize -- is facing the worst production shortfalls since the "Dust Bowl" of the 1930s, while a scorching summer in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan hit wheat supplies, according to Food Price Watch.

....potey

Abhijit Modak said...

Again Thunder Storm Playing truant here in Badlapur. Just drizzling now.

Anonymous said...

Extremely heavy rain in Surat between 4pm to 5pm. Rain rate should be around 2-3 inches per hour not less than that. At 3:30 pm light rain started in Surat but after 4 pm extremely heavy rain started in Surat and this heavy rain occur continuously for 1 hour. All the low lying areas are waterlogged.After 5pm intensity of the rain has reduced and it was raining at a medium speed and now it is just drizzling. Total rainfall amount should be around 50-55mms. Shitij

Ron said...

hasn't rained much at all today at deonar..dissapointing really with the UAC outside west...has it rained in colaba area??Will the situation improve in mumbai?

sset said...

I think Koran models had predicted of extremely heavy falls over Gujrat.Is this the one? But they maybe incorrect?

September end Mumbai can see 1500mm-2000mm.

Meanwhile Anonymous relax. Bangalore has just received 250mm since 01-june-2012. With normal annual rain of 800mm Bangalore has just received 1/4th- season is coming to an end. Mysore 150mm, Mandya mere 70mm - rice bowl for south. Many places over Rayalseema are below 100mm, so is TN (anyway NEM is to be seen?)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Ron . Yes this UAC's of off Mumbai coast are disturbing rains of North Konkan as it moves to west far from Konkan into deep sea and also tilt trough towards west ! Even in this June also UAC made very clear weather for 4 consecutive days ! Arabian UAC are beneficary only for Gujarat I think !
For resuming rains in North Konkan off shore trough should again resume to it's normal place that is just at coastline area. And I think this should happen by tomorrow if UAC don't play any traunt ! Badlapur having drizzles from evening with on/off consistently.

Neeraj said...

hi,
even though Rajesh ji seems to have given up on Nepal forecast, i will try to chip in with what I have for this monsoon. This month August is 10% deficient, 288 actual against an average of 330. May and June were both -45%, then July was +25% and now its back again to being deficient.September is on our doorstep, the rain will definitely decrease and the temperature will fall slightly, esp the min temp in the morning.

rajesh said...

Ron: Yes, south Mumbai had the expected thundershowers in the evening around 7pm-8pm.Colaba has recorded 15 mms of rain till 10.30 pm.Day was drizzles, not much though.
Expecting the Saturday forecast to go through as estimated.
Off shore trough is almost back near the coast again, and is showing signs of deepening off the Mah coastline.with a low in the Northern end.
Neeraj: Never can forget Nepal.Yes, have been irregular on Nepal. But no excuses. You know, calculating and writing a blog with perfect facts and figures is very time consuming. And you are a well wisher. Thanks for the report, vagaries will come back to Nepal soon.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had bright sunny start then afternoon noticed dark cloud gushing in from SE direction with some huge thunder sound then drizzle to light rain consistently with on/off continued till late night. From Today early morning just cloudy with some dark blue sky patches seen at moment.

So overall Badlapur records 15mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 01-09-2012).