Sunday, August 12, 2012


Today's TOI mentions of Artic Ice breaking off from main chunk...due to "you know what"...But now we now the real reason...An Unusual Storm over the Artic Ocean...Read on International Page.



This is what global warming looks like..&.

Snow record broken in South Africa..See Global Warming Hysteria Page. 


Reports of good rainfall on Saturday/Sunday from Gujarat and Rajasthan are coming in. 

An UAC from the monsoon axis has emerged strong, and is over SE Rajasthan as on Sunday afternoon.
I have tried to keep it as simple as possible, but, Please read the following forecast carefully Day by Day, lest it gets confusing.

Monday,13th: 
UAC at 700/850 hpa remains over the Southern Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat region. Rains over the Central Gujarat (Ahmedabad/Baroda) continue on Monday.
Precipitation extends into Eastern Rajasthan and will be concentrated South of Jaipur.
Kota and Jaipur too get some good showers, and adjoining MP region (Gwalior).
Off shore trough along west coast extends weakly from Coastal Karnataka to Kerala. Rainfall showing slight decrease in Coastal Karnataka. Decrease in Konkan rainfall too.
Gusty SW winds sweep Saurashtra and South Gujarat coast.
Vidharbha regions get some showers in regional pockets, between 5-15mms.

Monday, Moderate precipitation in Western Nepal.
Some precipitation in of SE Sindh region of Pakistan.Sukkur may get very light rain on Monday.

Tuesday,14th:
Weak rains along Konkan, but moderate (5-9 cms) along Karnataka coast. The trough persisits weakly along Karnataka coast.
Rainfall concentrates on Eastern Rajasthan and adjoing MP. Moving away from Gujarat. 
As the coastal rains creep inland, S.I. Karnataka may get some light to medium rainfall, ranging from 10-30 mms. 

Wednesday 15th:
Rainfall will continue over Rajasthan barring extreme West of the state. UAC finally fizzles out on Thursday.
Jaipur can get good rainfall. 
S.I.Karnataka (Bangalore) can get medium rains on Wednesday too.

Wednesday, Northern Pakistan region can get light precipitation. Islamabad can recieve light rains.
Nepal, continuing rains in Western Nepal regions.

Not much to write about for Madhya Mah and AP for all these 3 days.
Interior TN will be dry, except the region adjoining S.I.Karnataka.

Thursday, axis crashes into Himalays, and break monsoon conditions could affect the sub-continent. 

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Decreasing trend from Tuesday.
Monday 13th: Decrease in cloudiness. Day will be Partly cloudy and warm, with a couple of showers in some areas. Not really giving a boost to the total rainfall with just about 10 mms.

Tuesday 14th: Sunny spells and cloudy intervals. A showers or two in some areas. Rain Amount: Average Upto 10 mms.

Wednesday 15th: A few showers, marked decrease in rains. Amount: 5-10 mms.

Pune: Not much of widespread heavy rains seen.
Mon/Tues/Wed: Cloudy with sunny spells. Light rains or a moderate shower in the afternoon restricted to small areas. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: 
Monday:Thundershower possible in some regions on Monday evening. Rain Amount: 10 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy day with light drizzles in some parts. Rain amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.

Surat: Rainfall just about decreasing after Tuesday. Tuesday may see 2/3 showers amounting to 15-20 mms. 
Tuesday/Wednesday will see a decrease in rains with skies brightning, and rains will be less than 10-12 mms/day.

Chennai: 
Monday/Tuesday/WednesdayThe "popping up" of thunder showers in the evening continues.
Warm and hot Tuesday, maybe seeing 35/36c.  The humidity is high, and the convection rate encouraging with moderatelt strong NW winds. Daily rain will average out to around 7-10 mms in different areas.

Bangalore: Rainfall on Tuesday:
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy with an occasional evening shower. Tuesday/Wednesday city can get some good showers in the evening averaging around 10-12 mms.

Hyderabad: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Nothing much to write about with almost dry conditions. Practically no rains.In fact, AP may not get any meaningfull rains.

In Pakistan, Karachi and Hyderabad (Pakistan) practically dry. 
Sukkur may get light rain on Monday, and Islamabad on Wednesday.

Rainfall Stats worked out by GSB on Inter Active Page..Must see.

46 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi
what about the outlook for nepal and esp Kathmandu? after a poor start
the monsoon seems to have picked up pace and rainfall is now slowly
creeping into the average bracket for this monsoon season (june, july,
aug, sept). Today is 12th aug, and we still have one and a half months
to go. if the axis of monsoon crashes into the himalayas this week, we
can expect to get good rains for few days, i would guess. what's your
take? The monsoon typically lasts till 15th of Sept here with reduced
rainfall for the rest of september...Neeraj.

Anonymous said...

Dont worry dude nepal is going to get good rain in the coming days.

Anonymous said...

@rajesh please provide your forecast for amb,himachal pradesh

rajesh said...

anonymous: Please inform your name, its easier to chat..and where are you from.
Also please clarify what is "amb"

Anonymous said...

Amb is a place in the una district of himachal pradesh. It is well connected to national capital from train and buses.
Ramlok

junaid said...

@rajesh wen will the wet phase of mjo begin.?? I beleive the dry phase has started since end of july??i hope ths break in the monsoon will be short term affair!!!!

Anonymous said...

Very heavy rain in ghaziabad right now

Rajan Alexander said...

@Neeraj. Think Monsoon withdrawal will be late. Chances are that we should see rains till end of September

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur was having overcast conditions with Max temp 28d C and was receiving frequent spells but not lasting more than 5mins. So in past 24hrs, 15mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Vijayanand said...

At 5.30 am today:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8

Trough off karnataka and north kerela coast seems to be weakening.

Vijayanand said...

@Pavan said...
Every human being who can enjoy rain and wish to enjoy rain is lucky

I fully agree. Rain is nature's greatest gift to mankind. Dark streaming clouds, torrential downpour, light washing away drizzles, start&stop spurt rain, Dark silence as a big rainfall is about to start are all parts of our Rain world.

People who love rain, invariably love nature. We value greenery around. Wish in our school's we could have more focus on climatology. Instead of having 2 pages on south west monsoon, kids can be encouraged to jot down their weather observation [when it rains, for how long, direction from which the clouds come in, etc] during rainy seasons. At least a start would be made.


More people loving rain means more aware of the need to preserve the nature around us.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Vijayanand. I Fully agree with all your points. We all here love rains, nature & greenary around us.

GSB said...

Pavan, Vajayanand and Abhijit.. and all the fans of Vagaries and especially Rajesh Sir.. we all have this unique gift of enjoying the rains, the climate, analyse it and then share it here with everyone.. it enriches our life, our perspective of this world and also gives us a pragmatic attitude in this sometimes chaotic and self seeking world..

Anonymous said...

Heh heh, rain lovers, go to a lot of countries in the western world and you will get a different view. People's moods being lifted when the sun shines and getting gloomy at the sight of clouds, winds and rain.

It's all relative and as with anything else in this world everything needs to be seen in their relative context and perspective.

Sorry to be a party pooper

rajesh said...

Seen form both angles, all are correct. In the west, the europoean countries like Switzeralnd and Austria are really fond and proud of their snows, and its natural beauty.In the middle east, the sand dunes and the landscape has its own charm, while the barren landscape of Ladakh invokes and reminds us of Nature's remarkable miracles.
And of-course we saw pics of the absolute untold beauty of the North Pole in Vagaries some months ago.
I never compare one place with another..Mahableshwar has its own charm and Gulmarg also its own beauty, and so on.
But, thats Nature. I have been admiring nature, in its various forms for many years. Found its creativity in weather.
Many do not even know the different types of clouds that form under different situations.
While some are "fair weather" clouds,
A huge thunder cloud, cb, has tremendous amounts of energy built up in it, and pilots make it a point to go round it, lest their planes are tossed away like a toy plane !
cirrusand alto "ice" clouds form a Halo or a Corona around the moon or the sun. Thats due to light refraction and defraction.

Fog and mist are an artist's dream, and a rainbow is something to just admire.
These are the daily miracles of Nature. They occur everyday..when someone asks "where are the miracles "? ..they are not looking around.
Of-course, my other fav. hobby, birding is another topic altogether.
I believe in God..only I spell it N-A-T-U-R-E.

Sorry if i was too lengthy.

Pavan said...

Rain and your words on ths blog we love them as lenghty as, i am nt praising u sir, as ur speaking the truth but not fiction

Vivek said...

Rajesh sir,

No it wasn't lengthy. You should express such passion more often.

We got rain in evening (5-10mm) in Gurgaon.

Rajan - why do you believe that monsoon withdrawal will be late?

Thanks,

Pavan said...

Sunny evening with cool breeze and passing clouds in pune, the pace of clouds reminds of the song frm the movie chaaya "itna na mujh se tu pyaar badha, ki mai ek baadal aawara".. Talat sahab's voice it states just the relation betwn cloud and rain and their personification

Vijayanand said...

Rajesh,

Nice to hear your views on nature. Nature in every form is precious and beautiful.

With the trough off karnataka coastline weakening, weather was quite clear today in bangalore.

RK said...

Rajesh: Very nice description of nature's beauty!!!

on and off spells of rain..some heavy... since afternoon...in G.Noida

sset said...

Monsoon vigourous over Rajisthan,Gujarat. If it becomes normal - then it is 5th year for these states to receive normal-excess rains..

But rain continous to elude large areas of south-interior penisular.. Bangalore,Bellary,Mandya,Mysore...80mm of rain since june! So what went wrong here? September is only month left.

http://mobilepaper.timesofindia.com/mobile.aspx?article=yes&pageid=1&sectid=edid=&edlabel=BGMIR&mydateHid=13-08-2012&pubname=Mirror+-+Bangalore&edname=&articleid=Ar00100&publabel=MM

Shitij said...

Today Surat receive some light showers during the early morning hours that too for 15 min. After that sky remain cloudy but no showers were reported in any part of the city.

GSB said...

My two paise..

"THE FARMER HOPES FOR RAIN, THE WALKER HOPES FOR SUNSHINE, AND THE GODS HESITATE."

(Chinese Proverb)

This comments section is now reserved(!!!!!!) for all kinds of poems, quotes and musings on NATURE,RAINS,SNOW,SUNSHINE or whatever it is that makes you fell alive...

So come on guys out with it...!!!!!

Rajan Alexander said...

SSET: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mangalore/Southwest-monsoon-normal-over-21-districts-of-Karnataka/articleshow/15476077.cms

"Southwest monsoon was normal in 21 districts and weak in remaining nine districts. Heavy rain was recorded in two districts; rather heavy rain in five; moderate rain in 14; light rain in eight; and very light rain in one district"

So you can lay to rest the fears of desertification of Karnataka this year. Cheer up!

Rajan Alexander said...

@Vivek.

Why I believe late withdrawal of monsoon?

That has been the monsoon behaviour trend in more recent times. I read some research too that found high correlation of timing of onset and withdrawal viz if onset is late, withdrawal has a high probability of being late too!

keaweather said...

Heavy rain lashes Chennai at around 5:30 pm and lite overnight rain. Chennai city records around 20 mm. Southern suburbs would have recorded upto 50 mm

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur received few short heavy spells with sun out in between. So in past 24hrs, 14mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

rajesh said...

kea:Thanks for the report.Very interesting to note the daily thunder activity in Chennai.In fact saw yesterday's pic on Indian Weatherman..superb cb cloud. Please forward some pics if possible.
IMD recorded 27 mms.What was KEA recording please ?
Rajan: A slight difference of opinoin. I think the factors controlling the advance of SWM and withdrawal are totally different, i mean the withdrawal factors are not the "negatives" of advance..please elborate if i am wrong.

abhijit: i want to compare your rainfall readings with nearby stations to reassure myself, and also we can gauge the accuracy of your readings. Let me know your total till 15th, and would Murbad, alyan and Barvi Dam be the nearest to you ?Please be assured, if i am conveinced, i'll put up your readings too on blog for comparison.

rajesh said...

KEA: Chennai MBK measured 50 mms..

emkay said...

read this on the overflowing Gujarat dams - http://t.co/dHGL3OmQ

Rajan Alexander said...

@Vivek/Rajesh.

I am just going by some research I read - about withdrawal.

Rajesh you may right: Here a TOI report:

"We hope it rains the maximum in August as the monsoon is likely to dry up in September, posing a threat to standing crops which were sown due to good rains in July and August," said an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official who didn't want to be named."

Why ToI needs to keep their IMD source anonymous, is flabbergasting.

But since the IMD downgraded their forecast to 15%; deficiency got reduced by 6%!

Anonymous said...

I agree with Rajesh sir, while statistically you may have a situation where the withdrawal and onset are corelated. However meteorologicaly they have no connection. So I would personally doubt that just because the monsoon onset was delayed the withdrawal will be delayed too.

Anonymous said...

Wow! great kea is here. keasite weather news for chennai, in chennai and for chennai.

Jon

sset said...

Thanks Rajan with your kind blessings.

But still wondering what happened to Bangalore last 5years. Huge change in climate with decreasing rains. As of now is very hot.

Pradeep said...

After 7 days of daily Thunder Storms, Chennai had a lull for 2 days. But the rainfall from yesterday evening till 14.08.2012 at 8.30 changed everything. Everyone in Chennai weather blog slept assuming there will be no further rains in the night after superb showers in the evening. But unlike evening the early morning TS gained strength to Strength and covered almost all the area of Chennai.

Rainfall in mm

Meenambakkam (Chennai Airport) - 50
Kolapakkam (Back of Chennai Airport) – 50
RK pet (Agro) – 42
Tambaram - 40
Sholingur - 40
Marina Beach - 30
Mahabalipuram - 30
Arakonnam - 30
Korattur - 28
Nungambakkam (Chennai City) – 27
Taramani - 27
Chembarbakkam – 27
Cheyyur - 26
Kattupakkam (near SRM Univeristy) - 25
Kea Metsite (Nungambakkam) – 21
Kancheepuram - 20
Thiruvalangadu - 20
Poonamalle - 19
RK pet (IMD) – 18
Guindy – 17
Shollinganallur - 15
Tiruvallur - 15
Uttiramerur - 15
Kadambathur - 15
Chengalpattu - 10
Maduranthagam - 10
Sriperumbudur - 10
Kelambakkam - 10

It was surprise that Nunga did not missed out .Others who missed out yesterday are -

Tamaraipakkam - 6
Madurantakam - 5
Poondi - 4
Ennore – 4
Cholavaram - 4
Madhavaram - 2
Avadi - 2
Puzhal - 1
Red Hills - 0

Pradeep said...

Rajesh sir,

here is some of the pictures of yesterday's TS in Chennai from Rajkumar

http://rajkmr.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/pic1.jpg

http://rajkmr.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/pic2.jpg

http://rajkmr.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/pic31.jpg

http://rajkmr.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/pic4.jpg

Vijayanand said...

Quoting from Praveen’s findings:
Rainfall stats (total in cm) for bengaluru since 2004..

Year – City – HAL AP
2004 – 115 – 112
2005 – 149 – 142
2006 – 68 – 59
2007- 125 – 102
2008- 129 – 118
2009- 106 – 90
2010- 104 – 90
2011- 118 – 113

Avg – 114 – 103

Last 6 years Bangalore average has increased to 114 cms. This year is terrible. No words to define what's happening. No rain..No rain and No rain.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. From Badlapur in NW side Ambernath is 7kms & Ulhasnagar at 11kms and on ENE side Barvi Dam is 10kms which are nearer and Kalyan at 15kms in NW and Murbad at 18kms NE which is bit far away from Badlapur. And Matheran is 20kms South and Karjat at 30kms SE from Badlapur. All above directions are direct geographically via Google Earth.

I have measured 1795mm in Badlapur from 1 June till 14 Aug 2012 upto 8.30am today.

Actually there is very much variation in rains every 3kms range which I have noted practically. While traveling from local train many times I have noted Ambernath is dry and Badlapur is wet at many occasions.

Take Today's example only I measured 14mm at 8.30am today and Ambernath is showing 0mm(Nil) as per Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra website.
Ambernath and Ulhasnagar are just 3kms away from each other but Ulhasnagar also measured 3.6mm but Ambernath is 0mm for today!

And season total rain also varying between Ambernath & Ulhasnagar which are just 3kms away from each other, as Ulhasnagar is at 1286.4mm and Ambernath 1138.7mm till today 8.30am from 1 June 2012.

And now if we take Murbad and Barvi Dam then both are 10kms away from each other but there also variation in rain is noted. Murbad is at 1146mm till today 8.30am from 1 June 2012 and Barvi Dam must have crossed 1500mm mark till today. So variation is seen in short distances too.

Badlapur has 2500ft height mountain range at 7kms in SW and at 11kms in South side which starts at west and continues till south upto Matheran & Karjat belt which is under cloud cover most of the times in Monsoon.

And nearest 2500ft height mountain peak is just 7kms from Badlapur city in SW side direction. So I have noticed many local spells which erupts at mountains and as clouds travel from SW to NE direction, so Badlapur is first to experience that spell.


Anonymous said...

It is very clear from Vijayanand's comment that Bangalore's average rain is very good (>100cm). I have lived in Bangalore from 2004 to 2010, and I must say that sometimes I used to get fed up with "SO MUCH RAIN"...
This year is certainly an exception and I hope the things change soon for good...
But sset's claim of drought conditions from last 5 years is not correct...this year is bad but Bangalore is a garden city and will remain so...it will never become desert for sure...

rajesh said...

sorry, there was some problem with International page..ok for viewing now.

Pradeep said...

As usual TS popping out from NW, the surprise is big strom is developing SW of Chennai too

Both are gaining strength.....will it reach Chennai.....we can know it in another 1 hour.

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, can't it be argued that the "unusual storm" over the arctic could be because of 'Global warming' and not the other way round..??

The TOI article is pretty alarmist in that the summer ice cover over the arctic will be completely gone within ten years...how can they meke such absurd claims?

Ron said...

met dept predicting a low on 17th..So with the axis crashing north...looks like more rains for north..damn what about west?

Rajan Alexander said...

SSET: I am an old time Bangalorean. Lived here from the early 70s.

I do not have the rainfall data for Bangalore. But I have not detected any significant change in rainfall pattern. Leaving aside this year, the last 2 years I remember very clearly rainfall was excessive.

But you are both correct and wrong. In South Karnataka SW Monsoon is reducing a little while NE Monsoon rainfall is increasing a little. So on an annual scale, you will find rainfall fairly stable.

I suggest you do a 100 year rainfall analysis for Bangalore and check it out yourself.

rajesh said...

Rajan: Thats my point, the ice breaking in the Artic also happens with the storm churning up warm waters..and as a reader asks, these storms have happened earlier too, though rare, but HAVE occured before, no question of GW.

Thanks Pradeep for Chennai updates..keep them on for our Chennai readers..and request more from Chennai.

sset/Vijayanand/Bangalore Readers: Had predicted rains for SI karnataka and B'Lore Tuesday/Wednesday. Any news of rainfall Tuesday ?As Rajan asks, lets get Blore details for 100 years for comparison..anyone ?

Abhijit: I'll come back to your point..

Anonymous said...

I have commented earlier too on this blog, I too live in Bangalore and have been doing so since 2004. The claims of desertification are baseless and have come only from one person. A lot of other readers have shared details to the contrary but we see the same comment about Bangalore again and again. Let's bury the fact that this year has been bad so far and as mentioned by Mr. Rajan, the NE monsoon can prove to be bountiful.