Monday, August 27, 2012


The Monsoon axis is now almost stationary from Sindh(Pakistan) in the west thru Jaisalmer and running thru North MP along the 25N line, into Bangladesh and further Eastwards.
Another trough "aloft" runs along the same lines as the sea level trough.See Thai Chart. 




Tuesday would also bring rain showers, a few heavy, to Haryana. Delhi NCR will surely get some regional showers on Tuesday, with weather brightening by Wednesday.

The West Coast off shore trough remains strengthened, but i am searching all charts for the vortex. Its possible the vortex may just re-appear a bit to the North, along the South Gujarat coast by late tonite.
The combined effect of vortex and upper trough is likely to bring rains to Eastern Gujarat region (Ahmadabad) and adjoining regions of Eastern Saurashtra on Tuesday. The Southern Cambay gulf region and Surat will see some precipitations (around 30 mms) on Tuesday.

Wednesday could see the vortex disappearing. 

The erstwhile low having merged in the axis, the trough off the East coast has become less marked, or feeble. The line of wind discontinuity along TN has also vanished.
Normal Westerlies will get a bit strong along Chennai region. Shall monitor the formation of the trough again as and when the new low appears in the bay, since a lot depends on its position. Thunder and local activity around Chennai and interior TN may be subdued next few days. 

Note on the current El-Nino Situation will be on Vagaries tomorrow..

Mumbai:
Monday 27thCool day not going over 26/27c.
Actual: Day was at 26.6c Monday.

Intermittent heavy rains in the day Monday, with potential floodings in low areas. Rains should decrease in intensity by late noon. commuting and mobility will be better and easier by evening. Night will get a few showers again.Rain Amount till 5.30 pm 75-90 mms and another 25 mms by 8.30 am Tuesday (Average).
Actual Rain 8.30am-8.30am (Tuesday) Colaba 90 mms, Vagaries 77 mms, Scruz 63 mms.Vagaries and Colaba were the highest day's rain this year.

Tuesday 28th: As the vortex lingers, the rainfall will be less on Tuesday. Heavy showers though will break in occasionally, but not prolonged to cause flooding. Lessening even further today. Rain Amount: 30-40 mms (Average).

Wednesday 29th: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Definite decrease in intensity, but still will manage 25-30 mms(average).



12 comments:

rajesh said...

GSB: Viravanalluran, your explanation, and the fact, is correct and the fact properly explained. These are the difficulties of IMD, due to vast regions to be covered and communication problems

rajesh said...

ron: generally the axis movement is dominated by systems either side, or the upper troughs (sometimes) and of course the MJO phase.

Ron said...

@Rajesh sir...oh ok i see...thanks a lot for the info...

Anonymous said...

Sir i am nagesh from dharwad karnataka friend of pavan who told me abt dis blogspot please let me know why it is not rain in dharwad belgaum belt of karnataka and its raining alaround even from vengurla to gulbarga and gadag our place dharwad is in between these plabes and all other regions in karnatakare getting very heavy rainfall but not dharwad

GSB said...

Viravanalluran/ Rajesh sir, thanks for that feedback. Before finding VAGARIES it was a lonely hobby with my infrared images and my wrong predictions.

Now I am lucky to have people like you
to guide amateurs like me. It also makes the journey pleasurable with so many like minded friends who are always around to hold your hand whenever you slip !

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB. Very correctly said & agree with your points.

Medium Rains resumes in Badlapur from 3am or so.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had continuous rain till afternoon with sometimes very heavy. Then intermittent heavy spells till 9pm. Then today from early morning medium rains were noted till 8am.

So overall Badlapur records 125mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 28/08/2012).

@ Rajesh Sir. Can you please provide Barvi dam rains of today 8.30am and season total till today!

Rajan Alexander said...

Monsoon Withdrawal to be delayed

"Medha Khole, deputy director general of IMD, said the official date for withdrawal of monsoon from Rajasthan is September 1, and in Maharashtra the withdrawal starts from October 1. The withdrawal will completed by October 15 from across the country. “This year it is certain that the withdrawal of the monsoon would be delayed. Thunder showers and heavy rains accompany the withdrawal of the monsoons, which Khole pointed out would help in improving the water situation in country."

I remember sharing in my opinion we will have a delayed monsoon withdrawal based on my reading of some researches. Well it is happening as the research said it would

Vikas (Gurgaon) said...

Heavy showers in Gurgaon this morning - started at 3:30am and continued till 5:15am. Showers were accompanied with thunder as well. One immediate impact of good rains since last one week has been marked improvement in power supply.

Vijayanand said...

Bangalore received nice rain last afternoon from 3.00 pm to 5.00 pm. It was predominantly moderate to light rain. Bangalore city received 28 mm of rain.

Vijayanand said...

"Mysore: The outflow from the Krishnaraja Sagar has been stepped up on Sunday following the increase in inflow into the dam.

The inflow was at the rate of 39,967 cusecs and the water level in the dam was 122.6 ft. against the full reservoir level of 124.8 ft.

In view of the copious inflow, the authorities stepped up the outflow at the rate of 19,850 cusecs.

This is the highest discharge from the KRS so far during this monsoon"

Source : http://www.salem365.com/latest-news/state-news/3302-krs-on-the-verge-of-getting-filled-to-the-brim.html

Good news finally.

venkatesh said...

Hi Vijayanad,

I think you didn't see the date.
This is last year's news.

This year KRS dam has not reached 110 feet yet.