Tuesday, August 28, 2012


As per current, latest position the El-Nino indicators remain close to El-Nino parameters, just on the "threshold" as the BoM Australia terms it.

ENSO conditions remain a mixed bag, indicating a "not yet" El-Nino situation.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, as the consistent above +8 in SOI values indicate an EL-NINO. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to August 26 is -8.9.

But, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño norms.
The latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.

Various Forecast Models SSt indications for Sept/Oct/Nov.

MODEL / 
GROUP                              1-3 MONTHS(Sep 2012 to Nov 2012

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Neutral/Warm

NCEP (US)                                  Neutral/Warm

NASA Goddard GMAO (US)                 Warm

MeteoFrance                                     Neutral/Warm

ECMWF (EU)                                                 Warm

Japan Met. Agency                                 Warm

UK Met Office t                                         Warm

On going through various models, predictions and views, vagaries would be of the opinion that at least for September, the El-Nino would NOT materialise to full scale levels.It would remain neutral.

On 1st September, vagaries will put up a note on SWm Withdrawal and NEM Advance Parameters....


Mumbai was low on rains as per our forecast. On Tuesday, Scruz got 11 mms and vagaries and colaba 1 mm.
Mahableshwar received 38 mms till 5.30pm.

9 comments:

Vivek said...

I am taking the liberty of sharing a link to photographs of clouds. Some of you may like it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/picture-galleries/9494532/Weird-Cloud-Atlas-a-collection-of-spectacular-cloud-formations.html?frame=2317989

GSB said...

2012 was a watershed year for me as a MET HOBBYIST (did I get that phrase right?). Let me explain. Imagine you are in 1991 and trading stocks -- that's what I did as a hobby in 1991, now it's a fulltime profession -- and you want to but 1000 shares of TATA STEEL. You call up your broker on his landline (using your not so reliable MTNL/BSNL landline) between 12 and 2 in the afternnon. If you did get him on the line he would then call another dealer inside the ring of the Bombay stock exchange and get a TWO WAY quote. Then you confirmed your order (buy or sell) after a few minutes after he has it confirmed at his end with the dealer and closed the deal. Now zoom to 2010. Technology has changed all that. I can now place my order directly with my broker thru a PC, Mobile , Tablet or Laptop even when I am travelling i.e in my car or on the train etc. The order is confirmed within a few milliseconds or a few seconds depending on the systems you are working with. All this has allowed business on the exchanges to explode in the last 20 years benefitting both the broker and the client.

Now you might wonder what the above piece of insight is doing on a weather blog. The same revolution is happening in weather analysis and reporting. In 2003 or thereabouts I had two or three websites marked in my "WEATHER" favourite folder. One was Yahoo weather (does anybody follow that anymore?), Eumetsat (still one of the best) and ofcourse IMD. Today I have 30 sites marked on the same folder. But the interesting thing is the change in the type of analysis or report that I follow. Whereas previously it was once or twice a day now it is almost half a dozen times or more a day. And now I have a group of people to chat and exchange views with everyday!! Thanks to blogs like VAGARIES ( and also others which are doing a good job) more and more people are getting interested in the reporting and analysis of weather related information. Here in Thane I get five minute updates on the amount of rainfall recorded along with temprature, wind , humidity etc (envirocon.in). Even Mumbai has it's own online site dedicated to similar information (http://www.mumbaimonsoon.in/ ).

Imagine this kind of online reporting in all the major towns and cities of India. It will take a few years but with technology it is bound to happen. And guess what? The number of people on blogs like this will jump from hundreds a day to thousands, maybe more!! A tipping point will emerge because of the technology and the desire for change in the way society uses this information. That can only benefit millions of our fellow citizens.

The seed that was planted by people like Mr.Rajesh Kapadia (and also others) has grown into a small tree. But to make it into a giant oak it needs a constant supply of water and nourishment.

Ten , twenty or fifty years from now this group of pioneers will be remembered in India for their contribution to Indian meterology.

KEEP THAT IN MIND!!

RK said...

very very heavy rains in Greater Noida since late night/early morning...still continuing...definitely crossing 100mm...

Vikas (Gurgaon) said...

Gurgaon too getting rains since the morning though the showers have not been very heavy. Also, there are very strong winds from east.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur saw opening in morning with some sunshine but from afternoon turned dark and regular medium spells were noticed in intervals..
Then from late night saw low height clouds around 400ft height running from SSE direction made foggy & misty weather with consistent spray showers to drizzles till today 8am.

So overall Badlapur records 25mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 29-08-2012).

Arpit Sharma said...

Very heavy rain accompanied with very strong wind here in Ghaziabad from 4am and still continuing.

Arpit Sharma said...

The rain in the past 24 hours is more than 100mm.

rajesh said...

Vivek: really good pics.
Strong winds from East..thats interesting. Means either its a draft from convective cloud, or shifting of axis southwards.
GSB: Nice write up and thanks. But, can you imagine what it was chasing this hobby was way back in 1968, or the 70s ?
This passion (weather) was more tracked on radio and followed thru newspapers then...alongwith running an industry with 350 people..

Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,


Thanks for the status on El-nino Which has huge impact on NEM and inturn on rainfall of Tamil Nadu...

i have shared ur link on Kea Weather blog

How you would put series on NEM watch similar to SWM for the Southern visitors