As per current, latest position the El-Nino indicators remain close to El-Nino parameters, just on the "threshold" as the BoM Australia terms it.
ENSO conditions remain a mixed bag, indicating a "not yet" El-Nino situation.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, as the consistent above +8 in SOI values indicate an EL-NINO. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to August 26 is -8.9.
But, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño norms.
The latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.
Various Forecast Models SSt indications for Sept/Oct/Nov.
GROUP 1-3 MONTHS(Sep 2012 to Nov 2012
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Neutral/Warm
NCEP (US) Neutral/Warm
NASA Goddard GMAO (US) Warm
ECMWF (EU) Warm
Japan Met. Agency Warm
UK Met Office t Warm
On going through various models, predictions and views, vagaries would be of the opinion that at least for September, the El-Nino would NOT materialise to full scale levels.It would remain neutral.
On 1st September, vagaries will put up a note on SWm Withdrawal and NEM Advance Parameters....
Mumbai was low on rains as per our forecast. On Tuesday, Scruz got 11 mms and vagaries and colaba 1 mm.
Mahableshwar received 38 mms till 5.30pm.