Saturday, August 04, 2012


Pradeep has done an encore for Vagaries...Latest list of SWM toppers, and a special list of "bottoms" also....On Current Weather Page.Definitely Worth seeing.
Thanks Pradeep on behalf of all Vagaries Readers.



Latest Up Date as on Saturday,4th Aug. 12.30 pm IST

An UAC at 500hpa/700hpa level, and descending weakly to 850 hpa levels has formed off the Orissa coast, and seems to be stabilising.
The UAC, is expected to move west, and cross into Orissa and move into Vidarbha region of Maharashtra from the East.

Saturday: Heavy rains in Orissa, specially Bhubaneshwar. adjoining Chattisgarh and adjoining Vidharbha start getting rains too.
Sunday: Heavy precipitation in Vidharbha and adjoining MP. Nagpur will be overcast with frequent showers, some heavy and persisting.
Monday: Good precipitation in Vidharbha and adjoining Marathwada. MP too gets good rains with heavy falls in the Eastern regions.
Till Monday >Delhi region remains cloudy with no meaningfull increase in rainfall. Almost status Quo.
South also almost the same. Some increase in rains along TN coast and Chennai from Tuesday. Details of next forecast will elaborate on this.

Pakistan: Punjab (Pakistan) gets good rainfall Sat/Sun. Lahore and regions around may get very heavy rains.
Mumbai:Saturday: Cloudy, with 2/3 showers in the evening. May not be too persisting. Night will see a couple of heavy showers in different parts. Rain Amount till 8.30 am Sunday: 20-22  mms.
Sunday: Cloudy, showers frequency increasing to around 4/5 heavy showers. But, again, rainfall variation will prevail in different areas, showing inconsistency in the strength of the trough and rainfall. Rain amount: from 8.30am Sunday -8.30 am Monday: Around 25-30 mms.
Monday Day time forecast.: Cloudy, with overcast at times. But brightening by late evening. Some heavy showers in the day will seem lengthy, but will not last very long.frequency decreasing by evening . Rain Amount till 8.30 pm Monday: 20-25 mms.

Pune: Saturday,cloudy and overcast with light rains till evening.Decreasing later. Rain Amount : 5-10 mms. Sunday/Monday will see lesser rains for Pune.

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25 comments:

Ron said...

its very gusty in mumbai..Why is it so??Wouldn't be surprised if few trees fall today...

Abhijit Modak said...

Really Mr. Pradeep always very dependable for Rain Figures. Nice Job.

@ Pradeep. Can you please again provide an Matheran Hill Station rain figures from 1 June 2012 till 4 August 2012. I think now Matheran must be nearing to 2000mm mark.

rajesh said...

abhijit:Pradeep has put an upper cut off line..Mathearn is 1786 mms till 3rd august morning.
ron: the entire coast from Saurashtra to Goa is windy. The westerlies are gushing from the sea towards the central and eastern end of the monsoon axis. When the monsoon hits Himalayan foothills, the west winds/SW winds sweep into the trough. There are very strong gushes over saurashtra and adjoining S, Rajasthan also.

GSB said...

Thanks Pradeep and RAjesh sir for the toppers and bottoms till date. Astonishing to see some places getting 0 rainfall. Is this normal at this time of the year in august? Of course Gujarat is really suffering due to the weak Arabian sea leg of the monsoon...

Abhijit Modak said...

Thank you very Much Rajesh Sir for Matheran Figures. Ya, it is very Gusty windy here too in Badlapur from last night & speed touching up to 40kmph . Due to which rain spells are very short today as clouds moving very fast. Yesterday there were long spells lasting about 30mins but today not more than 10mins spell noted till now.

RK said...

News Channels reporting cloudburst in Uttarkashi(Uttarakhand), and also landslides in Manali(HP) and Jammu-Srinagar highway.
What factors caused this sudden heavy spell for Himalayas?

sset said...

GSB please don't worry - many places over TN are with 0mm and single digit mm in interior Karnataka since june. We south indians have to wait for NEM- which as usual is weak and sometimes totally dissappears!

Rajesh what is the reason for Mahabaleshwar to get 1000mm in 5days (many are consequtive)?

rajesh said...

RK:On going thru vagaries, we had forecasted very heavy downpours for Wed/Thu. Utteranchal and Himalayan states were named for very heavy rains in vagaries forecast.
As explained its due to the axis hitting the Himalayan hills...

rajesh said...

sset: same reason as the spurt in rains in the ghats and sub-ghats section these 4/5 days. The 500 hpa UAC over the N. Mah region/MP region suddenly brought up moisture into the ghats..(see previous explaination to abhijit)

GSB said...

India got the HIGHEST single day ranfall today i.e friday ( 03/08/2012) 8.30am to saturday (04/08/2012) 8.30am of 12.3 MM.

This was the TWELFTH above average daily rainfall all India. With this the total above average days are 12 (18%) and below average days are 53 (82%).

What is heartining about todays rainfall is that NWI got 89% above normal and SPIN got 43% above average rainfall.

Also the all India total has crossed the 400 MM mark.

GSB said...

OFcourse the Highest single day rainfall is for this season only and not all time which I forgot to mention...

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday gusty winds reduced the rains intensity here in Badlapur. So in past 24hrs 11mm rain measured here(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

KEA Weather said...

Sset: surprising to note NEM is usually weak and sometimes totally disappears. can you please elaborate?

The 4 NEM had been normal over Chennai and 8 of the previous 12 have been normal. the 12 year average is 868 against a normal of 857.

with regards to SWM, august and September are the wettest months, with august slightly ahead

Pradeep said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,

For Second straight day mild rains occurred in Chennai areas. The rainfall ending 8.30 am today are as follows and the temperature was 2 C below normal at many places.

in mm

Chenglpattu - 30
Tiruvalangadu - 20
Kattupakkam - 10
Kancheepuram - 10
Mahabalipuram - 10
Sriperumpudur - 10
Tambaram - 10
Koratur Anicut - 7
RK Pet - 5
Chennnai AP (Meenambakkam) - 4
Tiruvallur - 4
Sholliganallur - 4
Cheyyur - 4
Chembarbakkam - 3
Taramani - 2
Redhills - 1.4
Chennnai City (Nungambakkam) - 0.6

Anonymous said...

@KEA Weather, you better get used to SSET comments :)

Pradeep said...

Nagar located in Hosanagara Taluk in Shimoga District in Karnataka recorded a maximum rainfall of 437 mm ending 8.30 am on 05.08.2012

http://dmc.kar.nic.in/TRG.pdf

GSB said...

THIS WEEK'S RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------


TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL
-----------------------------------
05/8/2012 ------------- 410 MM


29/7/2012 ------------- 344 MM


RAINFALL THIS WEEK ---- 66 MM




TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 5.18 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.75 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 12.32 mm p/d


CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.21 mm p/d
----------------------------------


The figures last week were..


(29/7/2012)


(to achieve by 30th September..)
-----------------------------------
(minimum 700mm 5.65 mm per day)
(average 900mm 8.83 mm p/d)
(maximum 1100mm 12.0 mm p/d)


(current rainfall is 5.4 mm p/d)


TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------

KONKAN & GOA -------- 224.1 mm
UTTARAKHAND -------- 195.1 mm
CHHATTISGARH -------- 168.4 mm
COASTAL KARNATAKA -------- 157.4 mm
ORISSA -------- 136.2 mm


BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------

HAR. CHD & DELHI -------- 7.2 mm
LAKSHADWEEP -------- 3.1 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH-------- 1.5 mm
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY--- 1.4 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN -------- 0.7 mm


Data from IMD. Any errors pls point this out to me..
----------------------------***----*****------------------------------

Today was the THIRTEENTH above average All India rainfall at 9.8 MM.

Thus far we have had 13 (20%) above average rainfall days and 53 (80%) below average rainfall days..

The above figures are till 8.30 am today.

Pradeep said...

SSET, Adding to Mr. Viravanalluran

Weak MJO is spoiler for southern India (Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu)

Kerala is worst among all southern states. It is only going to get worse, the dry phase of MJO has set in and will last till 15-20th of August.

I am watching the monsoon behavior wrt to MJO from June and till now the monsoon has swung based on MJO. So wait for the third week of August of Good rains in the Southern peninsula.

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html

Further, the lack of Monsoon depressions....may be Rajesh Sir can reply why there is no monsoon depressions in 2012. The Bay wing SST is also not warm enough....let the expert answer this...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.gif

Shitij said...

Despite of heavy cloud cover no rain in Surat.

sset said...

Ok Pradeep sir, but every week uac forms overy north bay giving excellent rains to chattisgarh,north india,vidarbha,orissa. We require such uacs for south india also (sorry for such statements). Today in Bangalore it rained only for 1minute!!! correct - south is in subdued phase (this is of concern it is now almost 2 months). As you have mentioned August end is the only hope. Thanks

Pradeep said...

Nagara in Karnataka records 746 mm rainfall in 2 days
-----------------------
Nagara located in Hosanagara Taluk in Shimoga District in Karnataka recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs. Hulikal, the king of South India is located just 15kms from Nagara. It is the only place after Cherrapunji to record two 300+ mm rainfall in 2012. Hulikal figures is not published daily by IMD.

Here is the comparison of rainfall between Agumbe, Kollur and Nagara in last two days

Nagara - 746 mm
05.08.2012 - 437 mm
04.08.2012 - 309 mm

Kollur - 205 mm
05.08.2012 - 115 mm
04.08.2012 - 90 mm

Agumbe - 185 mm
05.08.2012 - 119 mm
04.08.2012 - 66 mm

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/

Anonymous said...

thanks for the rain toppers pradeep ji. very interesting and in details.
why is karnataka stations lagging behind ? can you tell us ? and what is the rain total of cherrapunji (annual).
NK

Pradeep said...

@ NK

Cherrpunji has got 9444 mm yearly rainfall till today. It will cross 10000 mm mark by 15th. Cherrapunji August average 1654 mm. Expect atleast 600 in next 10 days.

Anonymous said...

North East Monsoon is quite erratic. Last 4 years have been normal. Before that as Kea shared in 8 years , 4 years monsoon failed. So you take last 4 years out, then its been 50% consistent. The biggest threat to NE monsoon is freak cyclone going north towards burma and bangladesh.