Mumbai Readings Updated.
As per Vagaries estimate (for Saturday Forecast below), Vortex forms today in the Gulf of Cambay...
The axis of the monsoon Thursday runs through Rajasthan (Jaipur), South UP (bordering MP) and then thru W. Bengal into the Bay and thence again due east into Northern Thailand.
At present, on Thursday we see precipitation along the axis. Also, a weakening precipitation is seen along the Karnataka coast. Isolated pockets in coastal Karnataka have recieved upto 190 mms of rain Tursday along the Karnataka ghat regions. (Pradeep's report). This is seen as cumulus anvils in the satellite image of Thursday afternoon.
Possibility of the off shore trough showing signs of "relenting" off Karnataka by Friday.
Friday 10th: We see the rains continuing along the axis. Rains will be seen in MP and Chattisgarh. More heavy rainfall concentration in West MP and adjoining Gujarat regions. Indore can expect heavy rains Friday evening.
Karnataka coastal regions will get heavy showers, with some stations recording between 12 -15 cms.
Isolated thunder in some pockets North of Chennai.
Friday, the axis remains in Thursday's position.
Saturday 11th: As the axis moves north, rains in the Central and Northern regions decrease.
An embedded vortex (700hpa) may form for a day in the northern areas of the West coast trough (in the Gulf of Cambay).
If this forms, the adjoining Gujarat coast (Surat) and the areas Northwards upto Ahmdabad will get good rains. Bharuch and Baroda will be covered in the region.
Simultaneously, the Southern part of the trough weakens, and rains along Karnataka coast will decrease.
Sunday 12th: Precipitation may show marked signs of decreasing in the Northern plains of UP, and in the North MP and Haryana regions. Marked decrease along the west coast too. West coast trough weakens.
Interior regions of Gujarat get rains on Sunday due to previous moisture incursion. Drought hit Saurashtra may get rains on Saturday and Sunday. But on Sunday, rainfall will vary in Saurashtra between 10-30 mms.
Coastal TN gets some thundershowers.
Monsoon axis possibly crashing into the Himalayas by Tuesday 14th/Wednesday 15th. Could create a break Monsoon condition early next week. But, shall confirm this by Sunday.
Pakistan Northern regions continue get showers on Friday10th and Saturday 11th.
Regions East of Karachi, the SE corner of Sindh, can see some rainfall on Sunday.
Karachi will be cloudy, with light drizzles on Sunday. Hyderabad (Sindh) will be dry and windy. Day may touch 40c.
Sukkur will also be hot with gusty dry winds. Days may touch 45c this weekend.
Nepal Eastern parts get heavy showers Friday.
Mumbai: some overnight showers on Thursday Night.
Friday 10th: Cloudy with bright spells. A few showers in some parts. Rain Amount Friday 8.30am-Sat 8.30am: upto 10 mms average.
Saturday 11th: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Thunder heads may develop by evening. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Sunday 12th: Sunny Spells. Thunder Heads may develop in the evening. A shower in some areas. Rain Amount: upto 10 mms.
Pune: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Partly cloudy to sunny. Light rains in some areas. Rain Amount 5 mms in areas where it rains.
Surat: Expect heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday could be with thunder. The days will be overcast, with intermittent heavy showers. Rain Amounts: Saturday Sturday 8.30 am to Sunday 8.30 am: 15 mms and Sunday : 25-30 mms.
Delhi: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Partly cloudy with a thundershower in some areas in the evening. Days will be around 35/36c. Rain Amount: upto 5-10mms/day where it rains.
Bangalore: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Cloudy, with sunny spells on Sunday. Sunday may see a rise in day temperature to 30c. Rain Amounts: 5-7 mms /day in the areas where it rains.
Hyderabad (India): Do not see any meaningfull rains in the Hyderabad region. Cloudy and warm days. With less than 3 mms/day where it drizzles.
Chennai: Chennai has been reporting between 10-30 mms last 2 days, Wednesday and Thursday. Next 3 days, may see:
Evening thundershowers in some regions on Friday, and possibly on Sunday. Areas which get rains will get upto 10-12 mms /day.