Thursday, August 09, 2012



Mumbai Readings Updated.
As per Vagaries estimate (for Saturday Forecast below), Vortex forms today in the Gulf of Cambay...  

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The axis of the monsoon Thursday runs through Rajasthan (Jaipur), South UP (bordering MP) and then thru W. Bengal into the Bay and thence again due east into Northern Thailand.

At present, on Thursday we see precipitation along the axis. Also, a weakening precipitation is seen along the Karnataka coast. Isolated pockets in coastal Karnataka have recieved upto 190 mms of rain Tursday along the Karnataka ghat regions. (Pradeep's report). This is seen as cumulus anvils in the satellite image of Thursday afternoon.

Possibility of the off shore trough showing signs of "relenting" off Karnataka by Friday.

Outlook for:
Friday 10th: We see the rains continuing along the axis. Rains will be seen in MP and Chattisgarh. More heavy rainfall concentration in West MP and adjoining Gujarat regions. Indore can expect heavy rains Friday evening.
Karnataka coastal regions will get heavy showers, with some stations recording between 12 -15 cms.
Isolated thunder in some pockets North of Chennai.
Friday, the axis remains in Thursday's position.

Saturday 11th: As the axis moves north, rains in the Central and Northern regions decrease. 

An embedded vortex (700hpa) may form for a day in the northern areas of the West coast trough (in the Gulf of Cambay). 
If this forms, the adjoining Gujarat coast (Surat) and the areas Northwards upto Ahmdabad will get good rains. Bharuch and Baroda will be covered in the region.
Simultaneously, the Southern part of the trough weakens, and rains along Karnataka coast will decrease.

Sunday 12th: Precipitation may show marked signs of decreasing in the Northern plains of UP, and in the North MP and Haryana regions. Marked decrease along the west coast too. West coast trough weakens. 
Interior regions of Gujarat get rains on Sunday due to previous moisture incursion. Drought hit Saurashtra may get rains on Saturday and Sunday. But on Sunday, rainfall will vary in Saurashtra between 10-30 mms.
Coastal TN gets some thundershowers. 

Monsoon axis possibly crashing into the Himalayas by Tuesday 14th/Wednesday 15th. Could create a break Monsoon condition early next week. But, shall confirm this by Sunday.

Pakistan Northern regions continue get showers on Friday10th and Saturday 11th. 
Regions East of Karachi, the SE corner of Sindh, can see some rainfall on Sunday.
Karachi will be cloudy, with light drizzles on Sunday. Hyderabad (Sindh) will be dry and windy. Day may touch 40c.
Sukkur will also be hot with gusty dry winds. Days may touch 45c this weekend.
Nepal Eastern parts get heavy showers Friday.

Cities Forecast:

Mumbai: some overnight showers on Thursday Night.
Friday 10th: Cloudy with bright spells. A few showers in some parts. Rain Amount Friday 8.30am-Sat 8.30am: upto 10 mms average.

Saturday 11th: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Thunder heads may develop by evening. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.

Sunday 12th: Sunny Spells. Thunder Heads may develop in the evening. A shower in some areas. Rain Amount: upto 10 mms.

Pune: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Partly cloudy to sunny. Light rains in some areas. Rain Amount 5 mms in areas where it rains.

Surat: Expect heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday could be with thunder. The days will be overcast, with intermittent heavy showers. Rain Amounts: Saturday Sturday 8.30 am to Sunday 8.30 am: 15 mms and Sunday : 25-30 mms. 

Delhi: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Partly cloudy with a thundershower in some areas in the evening. Days will be around 35/36c. Rain Amount: upto 5-10mms/day where it rains.

Bangalore: Friday 10th/Saturday 11th/Sunday 12th: Cloudy, with sunny spells on Sunday. Sunday may see a rise in day temperature to 30c. Rain Amounts: 5-7 mms /day in the areas where it rains.

Hyderabad (India): Do not see any meaningfull rains in the Hyderabad region. Cloudy and warm days. With less than 3 mms/day where it drizzles.

Chennai: Chennai has been reporting between 10-30 mms last 2 days, Wednesday and Thursday. Next 3 days, may see:
Evening thundershowers in some regions on Friday, and possibly on Sunday. Areas which get rains will get upto 10-12 mms /day. 

39 comments:

Pavan said...

HAPPY JANMASHTAMI to Rajesh sir and all readers may lord bring rains and maintain happiness and prosperity all around

Shitij said...

Some light to medium showers were reported in different parts of the city between 9am to 12am.Total rainfall amount should be around 10mm not more than that.

KEA Weather said...

Rains ranging from 10-30 mm recorded in Chennai at around 8 pm

rajesh said...

Pavan: Jai Shri Krishna..and same to you.Shitij: Hoping for Sat/sun
KEA: Thanks..was expecting some good rains thu.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur received few short spells but today early morning received heavy rain spell. So in past 24hrs, 41mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Pavan said...

Decent rain in pune last night around 18-25mm of rain from 12 to 3 am

Anonymous said...

Rajesh,

It rained very heavily in Udupi District of coastal karnataka yesterday, from 5-9pm, and day aggregate may cross 200mm,

Shri, udupi

rajesh said...

Pavan: Pune measured 18.6 mms till 8.30 am Friday...

Mumbai Colaba got 52 mms and Scruz 8.8 mms. Vagaries measured 16 mms. Of-course, no estimate was put up by vagaries for Thursday...yesterday weekend forecast was put up, but mentioned (in the forecast)of good overnight rains on Thursday night.

Junaid: are you in town ? Long time no communications.

Vijayanand said...

At 5.30 am today:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8

Dense cloud mass along kerela and karnataka coastline.

Vijayanand said...

COASTAL KARNATAKA:
Kollur - 19
Mudubidre - 15
Siddapura - 13
Karkala - 13
Sulya - 13
Puttur - 10
Mangalore - 10
Panambur - 9

SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA:
Agumbe - 17
Sringeri - 10
Linganamakki - 10

Rains continued yesterday as well.

emkay said...

In keeping with prediction for Thursday night, New Panvel had a continous spell of rain past midnight ending around 6 AM. Also gusty winds !!

Shitij said...

As MJO is weak then why the low pressure system which is over north madhya pradesh is still alive?? It should have died over Chattisgarh or Vidarbh region.

junaid said...

@rajesh first of all a very happy janmashtami to u and all visitors of our blog!!:):),,i am very much at panvel,,fasting thruout the day coupled with long college hours makes me very tired!!and m petty disappointed this monsoon ,,panvel received the classical heavy rains!!!btw plz tell me abt the rainfall panvel has received so far frm 1st june!!!

junaid said...

i meant panvel hasnt received***** classical monsoon rains

rajesh said...

shitij: I am at a loss to understand which low pressure "system" you are refering to and asking ?
If you want my explanantion, please read the 2nd Part of the 8th August blog carefully..you will get your answer (I hope).
junaid: Thanks and nice to hear from you ..do you still want the Panvel daily rains? The other readers from Panvel too were not responsive, so i stopped..let me know..Panvel has totalled 1263 mms from 1st June.

emkay said...

Rajeshbhai waiting for your forecast for August-September 30 days now that surprise of surprise MJO coming up with a strong wet phase from last week of August and staying well into September !! http://ow.ly/i/Q5Ar/original

pavan said...

junaid bhai, salamwalequm
roza mubarak!!!

RK said...

Half an hour of heavy rain in Greater Noida today evening at around 5PM

HAPPY JANMASHTAMI TO ALL!!!!

junaid said...

@pavan walaykumassalam:) :)i sincerely hope tht in ths auspicious time of festivals ,,we get copious amount of rains !!!
@rajesh i do want the daily rains data for panvel...plz dnt stop it atleast till 31st oct!!:):):)

Satyen Rohitkumar said...

As of this evening - rains in Baroda - but not a drop in Bharuch - though overcast throughout the day :-(

Shitij said...

Some medium to heavy showers were reported in different parts of city between 8:30 pm to12:30 a. Total rainfall amount should be around 30-35mms.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur received frequent spells some were heavy and from night continuous rain with some medium and spray showers continuous and today morning started with dense black cloud cover coming down up-to 400ft height above sea level so all surrounding over Badlapur is under dark cover and misty conditions around so looking as if we are on hill station. So in past 24hrs, 47mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Shitij said...

At present heavy rain started in Surat.

Anonymous said...

Heavy rains continue in coastal karnataka.
In cms

COASTAL KARNATAKA:
Kollur - 17
Udupi - 15
Siddapura - 15
Mulki - 14
Karkala - 13
Mudubidre - 12
Koondapur - 12
Kota - 11
Shirali - 11
Panambur Obsy - 10
Manki - 10

sset said...

Bangalore no rain. Total rain since june only 70mm. Many places like Mysore,mandya,kola other interior regions (agriculture related areas) same state. Any hope in next few days?

RK said...

Second spell of heavy rain started in G.Noida.... awesome weather today...cool and rainy...

Shitij said...

@Rajesh sir As you have mentioned in your blog that vortex has formed in the Gulf of Cambay but the weather instead of becoming more darker and rainy has become become more brighter and sunny. Why??

Shitij said...

Suddenly the speed of the wind has increased tremendously.

rajesh said...

shitij: you mentioned of Surat rains in the morning/afternoon. and the vortex report is of 00Z UTC, anyway, Surat was expected to get rains later in the day too.
BTW, reports of rain are in on Vagaries Face Book page from Baroda, Bharuch and north Gujarat.

Rajiv reports of no rain in Delhi.
Rk: yes,noida reports of 7 mms till 7.30 pm Saturday.

emkay: Had predicted upto 15 mms on Saturday for Mumbai..Colaba has had 10 mms and Scruz 0 mms till 7.30 pm Saturday.
I suppose if Panvel gets 25 mms it would be line..dont know as yet the Panvel Saturday readings, will get it on Sunday.

Shitij said...

heavy rain started in Surat

Anonymous said...

Today short heavy spells of rain lashed delhi-NCR.As against the rajesh sir prediction,rainfall activity has increased here.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur received occasional spells some were heavy and some were just spray showers but night saw steady drizzling. So in past 24hrs, 45mm rain measured here.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am)

Shitij said...

Yes,it is true that yesterday Surat received some medium to heavy showers in morning/afternoon time but after that clouds started disappearing. Weather becomes little bit more brighter. At 4pm when you had posted the blog that vortex has formed in Gulf of Cambay I thought that as the vortex has formed now the weather should become more darker but it is becoming more brighter so I asked this question. At that time I didn't knew that this vortex map is of 00Z

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I have one doubt why west coast off shore trough is strong only at Karnataka coast and that too from past 10days ! Mr. Pradeep Sir already providing us heavy rain figures of Coastal Karnataka belt also. But why that off shore trough not getting extended towards Maharashtra coast in North upto Mumbai/North Konkan coast ?

sset said...

Modakji - pls spare something for Karnataka, actually it should go inside else interiors of karnataka will remain with drouughts. Probably in next few days it may move north(up). This is first time nature has been generous else past few years monsoon clouds were always above 15degrees latitude making entire KARNATAKA,KERALA dry.

sset said...

Maharashtra-anyway will overtake Augumbe, Mahabaleshwar,Madhya Maharashra,Vidarba are excellent(excess).

rajesh said...

abhijit: As I mentioned, the trend was for the trough to weaken from Saturday. But, as you mentioned it has held on in the South regions.
Though it has weakened from the 350-450 mms levels now, but still remains strong.
One reason can be the wind shear holding on or the favourable CAPE.
Both are restricted to the Southern regions as explained 2 days ago.
You can see these on the IMD site by going to NWP and Weather derived forecast.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Let Karnataka and other southern states also get their normal rains. I was just asking doubt of why west coast off shore not extending till Maharashtra coast (and not about shifting of it towards North ) ! If off Shore trough of west coast was strong right from South Gujarat coast till Kerala coast then I would be more Happy as many states would be benefited with this !

Shitij said...

After 2pm Surat received some light to medium showers which were prolonged. At present rain has stopped completely and the weather is hazy and little bit foggy. Total rainfall amount should be around 25mm.