Sunday, August 12, 2012

Saturday was the day of rains for the Central and Eastern regions of Gujarat.

What went right with the forecast :
The vortex formed in the Gulf of Khambat, and Khambat measured 45 mms of rain.
Sinor (Baroda dist) saw 90 mms and Karjan 72 mms.
Saturday Rains went into Gujarat from the East as expected, and having named Ahmedabad, Bharuch and Baroda, these two cities got good rains. Ahmedabad got 42 mms, Baroda 69 mms.
In surat dist, Mangrol saw 80 mms, Umerpada 55 mms and Surat, too got more than forecasted ( 15 mms for Saturday and 30 mms for Sunday) by registering 35 mms.
Bharuch measured 39 mms.
Gandhinagar measured 51 mms. Anand saw 52 mms.
Next in Line, Saurashtra ..
(Mumbai city forecasted is normally restricted to the island City. The city weather differs to a large extent with the weather in the hinter land. The towns  on the mainland get their rainfall influenced to a great extent  by the nearby hills around. Even the annual rainfall diggers from the city average and are much higher. 
The forecast put up for Mumbai cannot be carried to the outer townships. If require, we can put up a seperate forecast for towns across on the main land).

Mumbai Colaba got 23 mms and Scruz got 5 mms with vagaries measuring 7 mms on Saturday. The forecast (10-15 mms) put up (for Mumbai) is the average of these stations. Actual Average = 12 mms.

Coastal Karnataka rainfall shows a  decrease. From the previous days' extremely high 35-45 cms levels. Rainfall was between 15-18 cms on Friday, and even more on Saturday.
Saturday,s highest rainfall in the state was 148 mms at Kundapur.Other coastal stations were between 8-12 cms.

What went wrong with the forecast: 
Delhi NCR received  precipitaion in almost all the areas. Highest were at S'Jung with 18 mms, Palam and Lodhi Road 14 mms. Gurgaon 11 mms and Noida 7 mms. All other places got between 2-5 mms.
Vagaries' estimate was 5-10 mms. The day was at 35c as expected.

Indore got only 4 mms.

Next week's update tonite. 

11 comments:

svt said...

2 heavy showers in Dadar since morning. My eastimate is around 15mm of rains. Right now drizzling. Seems like from tuesday onward most of the India will be mostly dry.

Abhijit Modak said...

Thank you Rajesh Sir for your explanation on why off shore trough restricted only for Southern coastal regions. And will definitely look for IMD site for NWP and Weather derived forecast for increasing the skills on forecasting.

Yes, Rajesh Sir I know the fact that Mumbai city Rain differs from main land or Interior North Konkan regions due to mountain ranges and Proximity to Western Ghats.

Even in Mumbai island also if we look then North Eastern Mumbai receives maximum rain in Whole Mumbai which includes places like Tulsi Lake, Mulund & Thane region belt due to near by Ghodbunder Hills/Sanjay Gandhi National Park.

And on Central Railway suburbs rains goes on increasing when we cross Parsik Hills of Mumbra region.From Badlapur region Matheran Mountain ranges starts & continues till Karjat in west side and also on eastern side western ghats are just 30kms away so more rains than Kalyan belt.Matheran is 20kms south from Badlapur & from Karjat 10kms north.

I am very lucky enough and also proud of this platform which is famous in whole India and in neighboring countries too, as it provides very useful knowledge on meteorology , so just using it for providing mine own region rain figures.

I have even made some observations from past many years that coastal city like Mumbai gets more rain in June than we interior North Konkan or main land suburbs of Mumbai. For ex. Some times Mumbai Santacruz is at 1000mm mark till 1 July but Kalyan, Panvel & Karjat are around 500mm only in that same period ! But from first week of July trend get changes and mainland suburbs receives more consistent daily rains and end ups in 3000mm to 3500mm rain mark or some times even above also by the end of monsoon season.

Pavan said...

Every human being who can enjoy rain and wish to enjoy rain is lucky, if he does'nt then he is nt a human...
Btw, pune after a bright hot sunny morning a constant drizzle from past halfanhour bit humid reports from friends from karnataka says intensity of rains have increasd from 8 in the morning.

Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,
Small correction Kundapur is not topper at 148

Saturday, Gokarna got 200 mm followed by Kota and Kollur 173 mm, Mudibidre 160 mm and Kundapur 148 mm

Pradeep said...

Pavan you are right

This was supposed to be the weak phase of MJO for Southern Peninsula. The intensity of rains have been reduced in Maharashtra. However, in Karnataka and Kerala it has just started pouring see the last week cumaltive per day rainfall in the IMD Monsoon page. Not even IMD or other models predicted such heavy rains for these two states particularly Karnataka. Two places, Kollur which along with Agumbe and Hulikal dominated rainfall in 2011 got heavy rainfall for past one week.

Kollur rainfall in mm in last 9 days
----------
04.08.2012 - 115
05.08.2012 - 90
06.08.2012 - 190
07.08.2012 - 201
08.08.2012 - 180
09.08.2012 - 193
10.08.2012 - 166
11.08.2012 - 173
12.08.2012 - 190

Total 1500 mm in last 9 days and 4500 mm for the 2012 SWM season

Agumbe rainfall in mm in last 9 days
-----------
04.08.2012 - 119
05.08.2012 - 66
06.08.2012 - 164
07.08.2012 - 224
08.08.2012 - 101
09.08.2012 - 167
10.08.2012 - 170
11.08.2012 - 130
12.08.2012 - 105

Total 1250 mm in last 9 days and 4780 mm for the 2012 SWM season

Anonymous said...

When rain activity will start in Western Maharashtra region Kurduwadi, Madha Dist-Solapur

Shitij said...

After 2pm Surat received some light to medium showers which were prolonged. At present rain has stopped completely and the weather is hazy and little bit foggy. Total rainfall amount should be around 25mm.

Pavan said...

Anony u have to place an order for that and specify the amount u want. Ha haa! Just joking i hope u are the most deficnt part even al parts east and southeast of pune just we need is patience

GSB said...

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (05/8/2012 to 12/8/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------

TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
12/8/2012 ----------- 473 MM (-16%)
05/8/2012 ----------- 410 MM (-18%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK -- 63 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
minimum 700mm ------ 4.63 mm p/d
average 900mm ------ 8.71 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm ----- 12.8 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 6.48 mm p/d
----------------------------------

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
COASTAL KARNATAKA ------- 484.3 mm
KONKAN & GOA ------------ 207.6 mm
KERALA ------------------ 167.6 mm
WEST MADHYA PRADESH ----- 162.0 mm
EAST MADHYA PRADESH ----- 134.6 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
JAMMU & KASHMIR --------- 16.9 mm
RAYALASEEMA ------------- 15.6 mm
MARATHWADA -------------- 13.3 mm
PUNJAB ------------------ 10.2 mm
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH ------ 1.1 mm

Total above avg days this week - 4

Total above avg days
this season -- 17 (23%)

Total below avg days
this season -- 56 (77%)

SEASON'S EXCESS/SCANTY SUBDIVISIONS
-----------------------------------
EXCESS (1)----- WEST M.P

SCANTY (3)----- HAR.CH.DEL, PUNJAB, SAU&KUTCH

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me..

RK said...

Today was hot and humid in G.Noida with no rains...bright sunshine with clear skies in morning followed by partly cloudy for rest of the day...
Rajesh, your forecast for marked decrease in precipitation on Sunday is accurate for Delhi-NCR...looking forward to upcoming forecast and hoping for wetter days ahead :)

Rajan Alexander said...

Apparently the link to your international page does not work. this is in context to arctic melt:

1. Breaking off of ice chunks are known as calving and there is nothing unusual about it
2. The warming of the arctic is a result of a combination of the NAO and jetstream anomaly. Again it has happened before. My article in moneylife:

http://moneylife.in/article/nasas-greenland-ice-complete-meltdown-claim-the-scientific-hoax-of-the-year/27376.html

3.50%, 75% ice melt does not mean that the ice sheets have completely melted. It refers to only surface melts. The depth of the ice sheets go down to kms below the sea. If not surface melt, we should have by now mega sea rise and Tsunami!

4. Arctic accounts for less than 5% of global glaciers. 90% is accounted by the Antarctica, which is at record expansion. So there is no net loss