Reproducing the scene of 25th for convienance: "
-"2. In case of MJO showing no weakness and remains active (at least till this coming week):
a) Monsoon axis remains along current line, with normal precipitation along its length. West coast trough can fluctuate from weak to strong. Southern Sindh coast showers may linger along coast for a couple of days into the week. Western Nepal continues to get rainfall.
b) An UAC can form in the bay and move inland towards the end of the week (27th/28th).
c) Another weaker UAC, seen forming in the in the southern Bay, can form and bring some precipitation into T.N."
And where are we vis-a-vis this projected today ?
a) Monsoon axis is back very dutifully in line again, west coast trough showing its moods, flucuating between yes and no. Southern Pakistan coastal rainfall has diminished though.
Nepal rains continue, with an increase expected on Friday, specially in the Kathmandu (central) region.
b) UAC has formed in the SW Bay, and remains off the coast as on Thursday morning. Do not think another UAC will form (as anticipated), but the current one can become a low (BB5) and move inland in another two days.
As anticipated, rainfall along the U.P./Delhi corridor has increased, with Delhi measuring 58 mms of rain in 24 hrs. Some heavier rainfall spots were also recorded in U.P.
Monsoon rains along the axis was good, in Rajasthan Jodhpur measuring up 32 mms and Dehra Dun 119 mms.
Expect heavy falls in U.P. (west) and good rains in Delhi Thursday thru Friday. Some heavier falls in Utterakhand. Heavy rainfall in central Nepal and Kathmandu region Thursday night/Friday.
W.D. (JU-2) is tracking east, and will precipitate rains in Kashmir and H.P. on Thursday/Friday. Expecting mild snowfall in the higher reaches.
A persisting UAC over Gujarat may swing the off shore trough from "off" to "on" again. In fact, I would think the trough may activate and spring up an off shore vortex in the south Konkan region by Friday.
Heavy rainfall expected in South Konkan and Mumbai from Friday thru Saturday. Can anticipate up to 10-12 cms in certain places along south Konkan Friday/Saturday.
Interior Mah will be without any meaningfull rain next few days. Except light rain showers in Vid. Expecting rainfall in North interior Karnatak Friday.
Pune: Thursday: Cloudy with drizzle in some areas.
Friday; Cloudy, with a shower in some parts in the evening. Rain amount 5 mms. Saturday: Cloudy with a shower or two in parts. Saturday rain amount 5-10 mms.
Mumbai: Tuesday and Wednesday weather was on expected lines. 3/4 showers, some heavy in certain areas. We had intervals of sunshine in the afternoon. The average rainfall between Colaba and S'Cruz recorded was 25 mms on Tuesday and 32 mms on Wednesday. Vagaries estimation was up to 25 mms on each day.
Thursday: 2/3 heavy showers in some parts during the day, interrupted by bright intervals. Tendency for rainfall to increase by night. Rain amount during day around 15-20 mms and another 30 mms at night. (All rain amounts mentioned are average rain between Colaba and S'Cruz).
Friday: Frequent showers with overcast day. Showers will be heavy and with gusty winds. Increase itowards evening /night . Rain amount around 70 mms.
Saturday: Frequent showers with gusty winds. Some showers accompanied by thunder. Rain decreasing after night. Rain amount around 55 mms.