Wednesday, July 13, 2011

1. A weak low has formed in the Northern Bay off the Orissa/W.Bengal coast.

2. Resultantly, the Eastern end of the monsoon axis has dipped southwards. The monsoon trough has an embedded UAC, NE of Mumbai

3. Our third expectation, the west coast off shore trough. This has now strengthened,(map above) and has an embedded UAC, at 700 hpa. The map also shows a vortex formed over Marathwada and adjoining Madhya Mah.

Expecting heavy precipitation, due to the vortex, on Wed/Thurs over Maratwada, and Madhya Mah. And,Vid. will have moderate rains. Rains decreasing from Thursday evening in interior Mah. and Vid.

Nagpur will get some rain on Wednesday evening thru Thursday, maybe around 20-25 mms. accumulated Wed thru Thurs.

West coast will be lashed by heavy rains.
Heavy fall in Konkan, with some readings going upto 150 mms by Thursday morning. Interior Karnataka not expected to get the brunt.

Mumbai: Wednesday will be wet with regular showers, most of them heavy. Heaviest showers in South mumbai possible around 1pm-2 pm. A decrease in rain intensity and frequency around afternoon. Resuming heavy showers by evening. Rain amount upto Thursday morning averaging 75 mms, could measure up to 100 mms in some parts.

Thursday: Lesser frequency rains from afternoon onwards. Overall rain amount decreasing, with few showers in evening. Rain amount 50 mms.

Latest report tonite by 10.30 pm


PWP said...

Mumbai seems to be getting frequent showers..Thanks.. from PWP

pavan said...

forecast for pune and eastinterior karnataka and west interior karnataka

Nagpur Star said...

Thanks Rajesh for the update. And you are spot on about your forecast. Its 7.30 pm on wednesday and it raining heavily outside.

A very interesting article on our region cyclones in Economic Times of 22nd November.  Written and scripted by IITM ( including Vagarian V...