Tuesday, July 12, 2011

2 awaited parameters for SWM gaining start materializing : 1. Low forms in Bay off Orissa/W.Bengal coast. 2. Monsoon axis eastern end slopes down southwards towards low.
Watch now on 3). Off shore trough. (Posted @ 1 p.m. Tuesday).


Widespread clouding is seen in the Dahanu to Alibag belt. A rain patch covering the Dahanu region was expected (see last night's Blog), but it has stretched southwards to Alibag.
Showers expected to decrease post-noon, though Navi Mumbai and Panvel can get some heavy falls late morning. Matheran expected to be lashed by heavy rains today.

17 comments:

svt said...

@RAJESH Most forecast model predicting torrential rains for konkan & goa (including mumbai) for next 3-4 days. Good news is that even interior maharashtra might get good rains. Any idea what exactly 'north peninsular' is as IMD so often mentioned. Is it include whole of gujarat coast, maha coast, north andhra coast, orissa coast and bengal coast. Plz answer this query.

emkay said...

Rajesh you are spot on. Matheran seems to be at the centre of torrential rains. Panvel got a lashing and infact I am sitting all wet in office looking clownish with our Mumbai friends all dry and well :(

rajesh said...

svt.According to me,peninsula region means region south of East Gujarat, M.P, Chattisgarh and Orissa.
Rainfall for Mumbai hinges arounfd the developments mentioned by me last nite.

NT said...

Rajesh, it appears that Santacruz got consistent rainfall over night, I didn't realize it as I was fast asleep, but looking at the Santacruz Airport readings (the NOAA site) it appears there was continuous rain, also what is puzzling is the wind direction, it changed from SE to N to NW in a short span. Also as per your latest blog (today morning) the skies seem to be clearing up here at Andheri. Will await your detailed blog for the next few days for Mumbai tonite.

svt said...

Good steady rains in dadar for last 30 minutes.

junaid said...

@rajesh ur prediction is spot on!!! Panvel indeed got very heavy showers last night nd now in the noon also its heavily overcast!!!!!its raining off nd onn !!!!perfect weather

Ron said...

woah..imd site shows mumbai rain of 83mm...didn't notice since i was fast asleep...though did notice rains till 1am...btw y hasn't imd mumbai updated its site yet???

junaid said...

@ron they usually update their site by 3pm!!!

rajesh said...

For readers waiting for figure. Colaba had 30.8 mms and S'Cruz 83 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday.

sridhar said...

If SWM BB3 is still in formation then where are all these rains coming from...i guess then if it rains like throughout the season even without any of those system forming we will still get our water..:)

Ron said...

rainfall in lakes acc to imd site on 12th July

LAKES:

11 VIHAR

9 TULSI

6 VAITARNA TANSA

5 UPPER VAITARNA

3 BHATSA

vihar got more rain than Mumbai??

NT said...

@Ron, Mumbai as per IMD's current bulletin means Mumbai - Santacruz, they typically write Mumbai (SCZ) and Mumbai (CLB), the later one for Colaba. Vihar lake should be around 4 - 5 KMS aerial distance from Santacruz in the NE direction. In Mumbai this kind of rainfall difference between locations is very likely and normal - Remember July 26, 2005?

sset said...

Dear Rajesh/Pradeep,

What is the concept behind UAC?? How does it trigger rain??? We see because of this Rajisthan/Gujrat get daily dumps of 150-200mm. Any such luck for Bangalore/Mysore....?? We don't have water.

sset said...

ThaneBelapur extreme pounding rain. Sound of rain hitting ground can be heard from 3rd floor!!!!! Incidently we don't see any clound on the map but still luck Mumbai manages to get daily quota of rain

Anonymous said...

heavy rain from 9 am (13th) at borivali (west)

NT said...

Very heavy rain in Andheri right from early hours of the morning. My personal guess is that it would be around 60 - 75 mms. Not sure what is causing this - the offshore trough? Also, none of the models seem to be showing anything in regards to BB3. The 12z runs of GFS, NGP, CMC and UKMET have nothing to do with this low. The Thai map shows the LOW formed around West Bengal, the clouding however seems to be way to the south, around North Andhra, infact the area very close to the LOW seems to be devoid of any clouding. The IMD in it's morning bulletin says a 'feeble' LOW may form by tomorrow. What is your take Rajesh, on this? For Mumbai, July looks easily set to exceed it's monthly quota at this rate (as pointed out by you Rajesh)

Nagpur Star said...

Dear Rajesh,
Its seems this UAC will also skip Nagpur Region. Again its heading todays western maharashtra.
Please advise