Sunday, July 24, 2011
First, the actual situation:
BB4 as an UAC hangs around the Gujarat/Sindh border as an UAC at 700 mb. Another UAC lingers over south Rajasthan at 850 mb.
The monsoon axis line is shown in the vagaries map.
Now, for next week, there are a 2 distinct possibilities of weather formations:
1. In the event of the MJO getting supressed (this coming week):
a) The west coast trough gets weaker, and reduced rainfall along the west coast and south Gujarat. Both the existing UACs vanish.
b*) The monsoon axis shifts northwards (gradually), and reaches the Himalayan foothills. Reduced rainfall along west coast, NW India, Central India and Northern and interior Peninsula. Also dry into southern regions of Pakistan.
But, Increase in rains over the Himalayan states, Northern U.P., and Gangetic belt and NE states.
Subsequently, increased precipitation in Nepal, and Kathmandu can overshoot the month's normal figure. More precipitation for Northern regions of Pakistan, upper Punjab and adjoining areas, and Northern regions.
(b*) developments would would gradually occur in 3/4 days during this week.
2. In case of MJO showing no weakness and remains active (at least till this coming week):
a) Monsoon axis remains along current line, with normal precipitation along its length. West coast trough can fluctuate from weak to strong. Southern Sindh coast showers may linger along coast for a couple of days into the week.
Western Nepal continues to get rainfall.
b) An UAC can form in the bay and move inland towards the end of the week (27th/28th). Possibilities of precipitation in Delhi, Haryana and NW India.
c) Another weaker UAC, seen forming in the in the southern Bay, can strengthen and bring some precipitation into T.N.
Next 2/3 days developments will be the indicators.
Posted Sunday 27th Afternoon: The South West Monsoon withdrawal has started with the formation of an Anticyclone at 850 hpa levels. As the w...