Friday, July 29, 2011


See Mumbai page for Rainfall


JU-2 has precipitated good rainfall in H.P, Utterkhand. Some of the heaviest falls in H.P.was in Dharamsala with 12 cms and Chamoli in Utterkhand notching up 11 cms today (Friday), with Mussoorie measuring 15 cms yesterday and 8 cms on Friday.In Punjab, Amritsar came up with 7 cms.

Meanwhile, the Konkan downpour came up as expected. Amongst the heaviest was Uran, east of Mumbai with 19 cms as on Friday morning. Dapoli and Ratnagiri had 15 cms. Mumbai figures on Mumbai Page.

The monsoon axis hangs along the normal position, and the UAC in the SE bay persisits. The monsoon axis runs from Rajasthan thru M.P. and then branches off to the NE states. Another branch from M.P. runs SE into the Bay. This double branching is quite common and not unusual. UAC over Saurashtra has vanished.
Off shore trough shows a vortex at 700 mb level off Karnatak coast, and as anticipated, runs along the coast till Karnataka. The vortex, strengthening, would bring heavy downpours to the Konkan, Karnatak coast and Goa on Saturday. N.I.Karnatak, would get some heavy rain on Saturday.

Due to this, expect some rainfall, say up to 40 mms , to move up the south Gujarat coast and bring some rainfall into Surat on Saturday. Bharuch can expect a few showers too on Saturday.Probility of rain decreasing by Sunday in the region. Decreased rain in rest of Gujarat for the next few days.

No possibility of any meaningfull rains in Sindh or Karachi till an organised system crops up. Maybe an odd "un-organised " shower. North Pakistan rainfall continues due to JU-2, with Risalpur notching up 98 mms and Lahore 39 mms, Islamabad had 33 mms. Karachi had an odd shower, as per our reader Tyrone quite heavy in his area. But station measured traces of rain. Rainfall decreasing in N.Pakistan from Saturday as JU-2 moves eastwards.

Rainfall has also moved into central Nepal. Kathmandu received a good 39 mms on Friday, July Rainfall (till 29th) = 412.6 MM, which is +15.74% of average (till 29th, still two more days to go). Keeping the day pleasant at 26c. Rainfall to ease a bit after Saturday.

Nagpur has received 140 mms in June, and 210 mms of rain in July ( 10 actual rainy days in July), as yet, with the seasonal total reading 350 mms, which is 103 mms below normal, -23%.

Lowest rainfall in Vid is at Wardha, which has measured up only 265 mms till 29th, 178 mms below normal.That is -41%.

Absence of direct systems from the bay could be the reason for deficient rains in Vidharbh.

Mumbai/Pune forecast for Saturday valid as put up yesterday.

New forecast for Sunday onwards will be put up tomorrow. Performance of Monsoon up to July end will be up on Sunday.


3 comments:

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh,
Thanks for the update on Nagpur. So are any direct systems expected in near future. I think with the weak mjo settling in, it would be more difficult to get any rains in Nagpur.
Thanks

Anonymous said...

Cool - a bit of dry would be welcome for a few days.

SATYEN

Anonymous said...

Hey Rajesh, you think the rainfall in Mumbai will taper off by tonight as per your earlier blog? It would be great if it will, however looking outside currently it looks like this weather is set for another 2 days atleast. Will your blog for Sunday be put up tonight?