Thursday, July 28, 2011

As on Thursday morning, the monsoon trough is seen placed in its normal position. And, the MJO seems to be accomodative, postponing its supressed stage by a week. So, we go and chase up the scenario (2) discussed on 25th July.

Reproducing the scene of 25th for convienance: "
-"2. In case of MJO showing no weakness and remains active (at least till this coming week):
a) Monsoon axis remains along current line, with normal precipitation along its length. West coast trough can fluctuate from weak to strong. Southern Sindh coast showers may linger along coast for a couple of days into the week. Western Nepal continues to get rainfall.
b) An UAC can form in the bay and move inland towards the end of the week (27th/28th).
c) Another weaker UAC, seen forming in the in the southern Bay, can form and bring some precipitation into T.N."

And where are we vis-a-vis this projected today ?
a) Monsoon axis is back very dutifully in line again, west coast trough showing its moods, flucuating between yes and no. Southern Pakistan coastal rainfall has diminished though.
Nepal rains continue, with an increase expected on Friday, specially in the Kathmandu (central) region.
b) UAC has formed in the SW Bay, and remains off the coast as on Thursday morning. Do not think another UAC will form (as anticipated), but the current one can become a low (BB5) and move inland in another two days.

As anticipated, rainfall along the U.P./Delhi corridor has increased, with Delhi measuring 58 mms of rain in 24 hrs. Some heavier rainfall spots were also recorded in U.P.
Monsoon rains along the axis was good, in Rajasthan Jodhpur measuring up 32 mms and Dehra Dun 119 mms.

Expect heavy falls in U.P. (west) and good rains in Delhi Thursday thru Friday. Some heavier falls in Utterakhand. Heavy rainfall in central Nepal and Kathmandu region Thursday night/Friday.
W.D. (JU-2) is tracking east, and will precipitate rains in Kashmir and H.P. on Thursday/Friday. Expecting mild snowfall in the higher reaches.

A persisting UAC over Gujarat may swing the off shore trough from "off" to "on" again. In fact, I would think the trough may activate and spring up an off shore vortex in the south Konkan region by Friday.
Heavy rainfall expected in South Konkan and Mumbai from Friday thru Saturday. Can anticipate up to 10-12 cms in certain places along south Konkan Friday/Saturday.
Interior Mah will be without any meaningfull rain next few days. Except light rain showers in Vid. Expecting rainfall in North interior Karnatak Friday.

Pune: Thursday: Cloudy with drizzle in some areas.

Friday; Cloudy, with a shower in some parts in the evening. Rain amount 5 mms. Saturday: Cloudy with a shower or two in parts. Saturday rain amount 5-10 mms.

Mumbai: Tuesday and Wednesday weather was on expected lines. 3/4 showers, some heavy in certain areas. We had intervals of sunshine in the afternoon. The average rainfall between Colaba and S'Cruz recorded was 25 mms on Tuesday and 32 mms on Wednesday. Vagaries estimation was up to 25 mms on each day.

Thursday: 2/3 heavy showers in some parts during the day, interrupted by bright intervals. Tendency for rainfall to increase by night. Rain amount during day around 15-20 mms and another 30 mms at night. (All rain amounts mentioned are average rain between Colaba and S'Cruz).

Friday: Frequent showers with overcast day. Showers will be heavy and with gusty winds. Increase itowards evening /night . Rain amount around 70 mms.

Saturday: Frequent showers with gusty winds. Some showers accompanied by thunder. Rain decreasing after night. Rain amount around 55 mms.


31 comments:

rajesh said...

NT, Ron and followers of Vagaries:
Would like to clear some confusion, and explain my style and method of writing and forecasting.
Plubishing a blog is a passion for me and is done with effort and constant observation of the changing situation.
Terminology and adjectives used in forecasting are precise and what i mean to say. UAC should not be confused with a low. In forecasts, if i say "bright' i mean bright, and "sunny" means exactly that. "Frequent", "a shower" and increasing tendency" are other terminology used.
And, any forecast put up is valid, till its changed or is "time out".
Please suggest any improvements for easier understanding to make vagaries friendlier.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh ,

Couple of suggestions:
We have not had a poll for sometime
Two , would like to get a Mid Monsoon Summary from you

Thanks Ananth

Ron said...

my sincere apologies rajesh for the mess i created...will be more careful next time...

Anonymous said...

why does vagaries talk so much about west coast and does rarely mention about east india

junaid said...

@rajesh according to imd mumbai it rained at most places in marathawada,,aurangabad got 10cm!!!do u know hoe much ahmednagar got till date??imd mumbai says that it got only 15mm but thir report is flawed because i have personally seen ahmednagar getting 15 mm and 12 mm during the saeson,,try to get the figure.anyways what is the reason behind so low rainfall in that area??

Sridhar said...

60% of the time mumbai's doppler radar is down..somebody needs to file a RTI & aol them what the f**** they are up to

rajesh said...

Ron: Not at all Ron, U are a regular viewer and always appreciate your comments. Thanks.
Ananth: Suggestion for a poll please.
Junaid: Abd got 106 mms till Thursday morning.The major rainfall in Marathwada.
Something wrong with Ahmdngr readings it seems.
Anonymous:Many readers give feedback from different regions. If you have any specific regional query, shall try to answer or give a feedback. BTW where r u from ??

Ganesh said...

@BARC/Mankhurd by far the heaviest per hr intensity rainfall this season.i dnt how much but very very heavy for the last 1 hr.occasional lightning!!

Pavan said...

It was the driest july of my lifetime

NT said...

Rain oscillating between Heavy and Moderate since 8:30 PM here at Juhu with occassional lightning, some really heavy thunderclaps around 9:15 PM. The rain intensity currently at 10:30 PM is very Heavy.

Anonymous said...

@ganesh the mcgm deonar station says 51.82mm in last hour!!
here in borivali its raining on and off with light to moderate intensity since 8pm. no thunder as yet. the mcgm borivali station indicates only 6.85mm of rain in last hour!!
the airport "metar" report is also showing thunderstorm since 8.40pm

rajesh said...

Raining at breach candy since 8.30, and very heavy since 10.15. Measured 40 mms this evening here.Loud thundering around 9pm to 10 pm.

Ganesh said...

@anonymous- yes,and its still pouring.i wish i had a rain gauge.i am sure BARC would have had more than 50mm/hr.gosh it was pouring!!

Ron said...

Its raining insanely at deonar...roads are flooded with water..some cars even broke down here...

Ron said...

@ganesh...yes i came back from barc & my god..its bad..lot of thunder going on as well..

Ganesh said...

chembur 50mm in 30 mins!!Now thats some rain!!
This intensity seems very localised in eastern suburbs.

rajesh said...

Ganesh..I think the heaviest pocket is concentrated in the eastern suburbs, as per reports coming in..western suburbs rainfall ranging around 30 mms compared to 70-80 mms in the eastern side. South mumbai has recorded around 40 mms till now.
TC

Ganesh said...

thanks rajesh for the update..except for the thunder& lightening,the intensity so resembles 26/7.

rajesh said...

Ganesh: Radarshows slight decrease in intensity for eastern suburbs..very heavy heading for Borivali and Thane..

Ganesh said...

rajesh,i am trying to understand the imd mumbai radar animation for surface rainfall..cant understand any parameters given in the right.i also dont undesrtand the concept of 'Z' time zone. :p really need to learn a lot.wish to reach ur level of understanding one day.
gn!!

sridhar said...

not much of rains in thane was heavy at around 9 to 10 pm.. then stopped... with occasional drizzle thereafter.

sset said...

Incessent, non stop, torrential rains entire night (12 hours) over Navi Mumbai, thane - rain was like water falls pouring over hight. Rain must be 100mm - 150mm. Rajesh when will Mumbai get relief from rains???? Always UACs, troughs, lows seem to stick Maharashtra/Mumbai.

Nagpur Star said...

Hey Rajesh,
I being a very less knowledgeable about the weather even though I am a regular reader of your blog and appreciate your predictions. This has been an unusual year in Nagpur, the rains continued till april end. With temperatures rarely touching 40 deg in april. May was also subdued with hardly one or two days 45+ days. There has been lot of cloud cover throughout the summer. But with the same effect I dont know the rains are also subdued. And its increased the humidity factor. Can you explain anything regarding subdued summer followed by subdued monsoon season.
Thanks

Ron said...

@rajesh..if possible,could you pls give us a guide or something on how to read the radar...

sridhar said...

heavy rains in thane...!!!

junaid said...

@rajesh th imd report of 1430 hrs mentioned of 2 monsoon troughs!!!!!ones eastern end is in bay of bengal and the other ones eastern end is in assam!plz can u explain how is this possible!!!!

rajesh said...

Ron: for reading radar please see "interaction " page of vagaries. Scroll down to May 13th.

Shitij said...

Why the Mumbai is receiving the continuos heavy showers while the Surat which is located 250 km away from Mumbai is receiving light rain and that too for the shorter duration. Till today Surat has received only 15 inches of rain which is not even the 25% of its total rainfall while the Mumbai has received 70 inches of rain which is more than 50% of the its total rainfall.If you compare percentage wise then also the Mumbai is ahead of the Surat.Why so?

NT said...

Rajesh, your forecast for Friday is turning out to be bang on the target, here at Andheri West. The showers started around 4:30 PM and they have picked up in intensity and duration now at 7:20 PM.

Ron said...

thank you rajesh...much appreciated..

Ron said...

lot of lightning thunder activity going on