Tuesday evening the monsoon trough axis was south of normal position, and the UAC over south Gujarat running into the Arabian Sea is now south of Saurashtra coast. Setting the conditions for re-activating the off shore trough along the west coast.
Yesterday's UAC mentioned in vagaries also persists off the A.P. coast. I see the UAC persisting ( as a UAC) for a few days more in the same region.
International MJO forecast models Forecasters have pushed the MJO in our region getting weak (date) to 3rd August. On checking various models, i summerised the weak phase to now commence from around 3rd/5th August. Previously, in the begining of June, vagaries had estimated, based on other models, the weak phase to beginaround 25th July.
As the west coast trough remains partially active, average (normal) showers along the Mah.and Karnataka coast on Wednesday/Thursday, with light/moderate rains in Gujarat for Wednesday.
N.Interior Karnataka may see some enhanced rainfall after Friday, assuming the off shore trough activates by then.Some heavy falls can move into the N.Karnataka region from Friday, as there is a possibility of an inland vortex forming.
Some rainfall to continue Wednesday/Thursday, 27th/28th, in South interior Karnataka, and in coastal T.N./ Southern A.P. due to UAC.
Rainfall sure to increase from Wednesday thru Friday in U.P. and Delhi.
I see the precipitation moving away from the Sindh coast, from Wednesday, as the original system has weakened and moved west. Cloudy weather for Karachi next 2/3 days, with minimum precipitation.
Seeing the situation as very fluid, i will not attempt to forecast beyond 2/3 days. I beleive Forecasts changes should be minimum to avoid confusion.
See Mumbai Page for those interested in Mumbai weather (updated on Tuesday night).