Tuesday, July 19, 2011


It would be worth recalling that an active MJO period was forecasted on this blog from 5th July. About 2 systems from the Bay were expected and a re invigorated monsoon all over India during the period was forecasted.

BB2 moved in from the Bay on the 5th of July and brought good rains in central India and extended the rains into the North. BB3 followed, though not as strong, and precipitated over central India and later again into North India.

An UAC from a Bay system tracked across M.P. and towards Gujarat bringing rain a plenty into M.P.and Gujarat. All along, the west coast benefited with the off shore trough getting a continuos lift.
Last week, an UAC had moved across interior Mah. and attracted inflow of moisture clouds on the Konkan coast.Again, copious rains in interior Mah, and the UAC lingerd over Gujarat for 2 days. An "urgent" vortex formed over the North Konkan coast on the morning of 17th.

Today, Monday, we see the UAC lingering over Gujarat, having extended its stay by a day. The monsoon axis is at its normal position.

But, the rains seems to have given interior Karnataka and T.N. a partial miss. Not much benefit and precipitation advantage for these states last 15 days.

But, i would re-read the blog published on 30th June again. The MJO was slated to remain active till around the 25th of July. It seems, as per calculations and observations today, it is heading towards an in-active period. A supressed MJO seems to be on the cards from around 25th July.

A supressed MJO, in the sub-continent region, would mean less than normal ,and supressed monsoon activity. One of the possibilities could be transalted in the monsoon trough pushing far Northwards into the Himalayas.

Vagaries will keep readers informed on this.

Mumbai Page updated with latest on city weather.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your prediction that rain would decrease in around Pune from Wednesday was again bang on target .

Anonymous said...

even the met said there are factors indicating weak monsoon in the coming period...

Tyrone said...

I see several forecasts showing rain for Karachi coming Sunday /Monday. Despite your forecast for weak MJO, is there still a possibility for monsoon rains in Karachi end of this week?

NT said...

As per my estimates, it has already rained around 37 inches (925 mm) at Mumbai - SCZ so far in the month of July 2011. This is more then the July average and there are 10 more days to go. Also overall the total rainfall has been 65% of the total season. Although traditionally August and September have lesser rainfall as compared to June / July one can say that Mumbai - SCZ is likely to exceed 100 inches this year.

Rajesh, your forecast around end June wherein you had shown excess rainfall for West-coast for the month of July has proven correct.

Pradeep said...

Will Kollur cross the 10000 mm rainfall mark in 2011 – List of places other than Cherrapunji & Mawsynram which has achieved the feat is given in below link

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/07/will-kollur-cross-10000-mm-rainfall.html

Pradeep said...

Why Kollur will beat Cherrapunji this year at SWM
——————————————

As you can the see the graphs of heavy rainfall places from various zones of the country.

1. North – Dharamshala
2. South – Agumbe
3. East – Cherrapinji & Passighat
4. West – Mahabelshwar

SWM Rainfall in mm as on 21.07.2011 (51 days)

1. Kollur – 4452
2. Agumbe – 3638
3. Gaganbawada – 3558
4. Sangameshwar – 3337
5. Cherrapunji – 3048
6. Kadra – 3029

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/07/why-cherrapunji-can-not-beat-kollur.html

Tyrone said...

Low formed over the bay of bengal

rajesh said...

Pradeep; Thanks for posting the information on Vagaries.Readers get a wealth of information from your blog.

Adding one more to the 10000 club: Mahableshwar highest aver 10221 mms in 1896.