It would be worth recalling that an active MJO period was forecasted on this blog from 5th July. About 2 systems from the Bay were expected and a re invigorated monsoon all over India during the period was forecasted.
BB2 moved in from the Bay on the 5th of July and brought good rains in central India and extended the rains into the North. BB3 followed, though not as strong, and precipitated over central India and later again into North India.
An UAC from a Bay system tracked across M.P. and towards Gujarat bringing rain a plenty into M.P.and Gujarat. All along, the west coast benefited with the off shore trough getting a continuos lift.
Last week, an UAC had moved across interior Mah. and attracted inflow of moisture clouds on the Konkan coast.Again, copious rains in interior Mah, and the UAC lingerd over Gujarat for 2 days. An "urgent" vortex formed over the North Konkan coast on the morning of 17th.
Today, Monday, we see the UAC lingering over Gujarat, having extended its stay by a day. The monsoon axis is at its normal position.
But, the rains seems to have given interior Karnataka and T.N. a partial miss. Not much benefit and precipitation advantage for these states last 15 days.
But, i would re-read the blog published on 30th June again. The MJO was slated to remain active till around the 25th of July. It seems, as per calculations and observations today, it is heading towards an in-active period. A supressed MJO seems to be on the cards from around 25th July.
A supressed MJO, in the sub-continent region, would mean less than normal ,and supressed monsoon activity. One of the possibilities could be transalted in the monsoon trough pushing far Northwards into the Himalayas.
Vagaries will keep readers informed on this.
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