Sunday, July 03, 2011

The monsoon axis stays firmly entrenched in the Himalayan foothills on Sunday.

But, things are expected to change a bit. On 5th,Tuesday, an UAC is expected to form off the Orissa coast, at the 850 hpa level. As a result, on Tuesday, the axis will run from west to east from Punjab thru Delhi and West U.P, and then dip southwards towards the UAC thru Chattisgarh and Orissa.
On dipping South, the rain pattern changes. Moist Easterlies from the Bay will rush thru W.Bengal and into Jharkhand, Bihar and U.P.
Some more rainfall into E.Nepal from Wednesday.

Vagaries estimates the UAC to form a weak low and track inland after Tuesday, but weaken fast, and fizzle out within 2 days over M.P. We shall follow and monitor the developments daily.

Hence, Wednesday and Thursday can see an increase in rainfall into Orissa, Chattisgarh, East M.P. and Eastern Vidharbha.
Except E.Vid, interior Karnataka, Mah, Gujarat and T.N will continue to be dry till Thursday.

No meaningfull precipitation in NW India and Pakistan from Tuesday.


Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with intervals of sunshine. 3/4 sharp showers in different parts of the city. Rain amount: 15-20 mms.

Wednesday: Cloudy, with nominal increase in rains frequency. Thunder possible. Rain amount: 30-35 mms.

Rains could further temporarily increase from Thursday, but i will put up Thursday (onward) forecast on Tuesday, on seeing the developing situation.

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Anonymous said...

pls give some good news about mumbai...where the hell are the mumbai rains...

NT said...

Rajesh, how do you make an assessment on whether the rains in Mumbai will be accompanied by Thunder? I mean predicting rain is one thing (which by itself is quite complex) but predicting that there will be 'thunder' is something else. The reason I state this is that it is typically 'uncharacteristic' of rains to have thunder in Mumbai once the Monsoon has set in. Also, it becomes a possibility if we are predicting very Heavy Rain, however, that too does not appear to be the case (30 - 35 mms). Having said that I am not saying 'thunder' will not occur at all (as any natural phenomena is always possible), it's just that specifically predicting it is a bit fascinating hence my question.

Anonymous said...

What is happening in South East Arabian Sea? Massive cloud mass off the Northern Kerala / Southern Karnataka region. A new system developing? AS 2?

Rajesh said...

@anonymous.Our predicted UAC has formed in the Bay. As the off shore trough is present off the west coast, we see moist winds (cloud laden)in line with the upper air system, rushing to the UAC.
@NT.2 reasons for my thunder estimate on Wednesday.1. Generally, i have observed over the years that after a break monsoon, when rains resume, Chances of thunder are always there. 2. My personal observations of the sky conditions on Sunday was the developments of thunder heads, Cb towers, in the E/SE. And some "dis-colouration" of low clouds at sunset on Sunday.

  October 5th.. Dussehra wishes to all Vagaries Readers  It now seems we may have to neglect the weak BB 14 and concentrate on this new Low....