Friday, October 15, 2010

The deep depression, BoB3,  in place over Bay of Bengal as of now on its way towards a landfall on the Orissa coast. Latest position shows the centre at lat 19.0N and long 87.0E, about 220 km east-southeast of Gopalpur, and the core pressure at 998 mb with quadrant winds at 55-60 kmph.
Constantly, this system  is being sheared by easterly winds aloft, so most of its deep convective clouds and rains lie western quadrant.

Most  forecast models show the system tracking westward, and should make a landfall between near Gopalpur within a few hours of 1200 UTC, Friday. The question is, whether this will be a tropical cyclone at landfall, as easterlies persisting aloft through the time of landfall favors a cap on intensity.
Surface wind suggest the potential for gales--before landfall.

Inland, the system whirl will move west/northwest, reaching M.P. and crossing thru Vidharbha, before tracking on again, and weakening rapidly.
That means, this system  will precipitate unusual heavy rain in regions where SWM has retreated or should have retreated by now.

The coming of a depression now at this stage has completely pushed aside the "anti cyclone" and is now "sneaking in" in a monsoon depression after the "scales had turned unfavourably" for the SWM. And, I think it is the first deep depression to come from the bay since June !!
Long Live the SWM !!


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