Thursday, October 21, 2010
Cyclone "Giri" is now located 450 kms South of Chittagong, and has tracked NE. It is expected to hit land over Myanmar by tomorrow.
Now, this is due to our predicted W.D. diverting the cyclone eastwards and precipitating rainfall over Myanmar/Bangladesh.
The W.D. mentioned in the previous blog is now over Kashmir, and is expected to remain active with precipitation in Kashmir, H.P.and Utteranchal during the next 2 days.
Now, with the "running away" of this cyclone. I would finally look towards the NEM.
Meanwhile, we may now see the couple of UACs in the Konkan and interior Mah. regions move southwards, and drag the monsoon axis to where it should be. Vagaries predicts the withdrawal of the SWM and "ground preparations" for the NEM from Monday.
Interestingly, IMD forecasts a UAC in the T.N. coastal region by as early as Monday.
A strong wet phase of the MJO wave will be "allowed "to move in eastwards towards the South-Eastern coast of India (Tamil Nadu). This would subsequently displace the dry MJO in the region. Wet phase of the MJO are known to set up monsoon onsets, low-pressure areas and depressions.
Easterly waves would result in major amounts of accumulated rainfall in interior T. N, Coastal T.N and and Kerala during next week.
Mumbai forecast on page.
25th October... SWM Withdraws.. & NEM sets in. (Estimated earlier in Vagaries on 14th) See (below) complete withdrawal dates from coun...