Saturday, October 16, 2010

The deep depression crosses the Orissa coast around 12 hrs UTC on Friday. Shown in the Thai and IMD map.
At the time of crossing, it had a core pressure of 998 mb (indicated otherwise in Thai map), and winds of 30kts/55 kmph.

I personally look at it moving almost due west, and as mentioned repeatedly, weaken rapidly.
Rainfall will be along the track, lessening with time.

Something new again !Seeing a possibility of the dying system "producing" a vortex at 850 hpa in the Konkan region.
Indication from estimate of IMD/GFS map shows the low aloft over Mumbai.
However, Vortex could form anywhere in the Konkan region, the exact posssibility of position and depth depends on the "life strength" of th
e DD, as it will be sort of an "off shoot" of the parent system.
Though I do not expect it to last more than 24 hrs after forming.

I will reserve the coastal Mah. precipitation estimate till tomorrow. I should also put up a revised Mumbai forecast tomorrow (after 1 pm IST) after seeing the current DD behaviour, and observe the above vortex possibilities.
A real test for me ! Suggestions and estimates are welcome.

A extended explanation of the discussion in the previous blog. A pic from IMD showing the centre of the current DD and the clouding in the w
est. Though I do not agree with the tracking direction shown in this pic.

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1 comment:

weather said...

Here is the weather forecast from GFS,

weather GFS

  Posted 21st October A   Western Disturbance is  to affect  North India starting October 22. This system will have an effect over the hilly...