With the second W.D. approaching North India, the 2nd in 10 days, all attention on the weather in the Northern region.
I expect this up coming W.D. to feeble and mild, and should precipitate moderate rains/snow in Kashmir and the upper ranges of H.P. on 29th./30th October.
Mild rainfall will occur in Jammu region, Punjab and Haryana for the same 2 days, with cloudy weather in North Rajasthan and Delhi in the same period.
Resultantly, we will see a rise in night temperatures in the North and North-West.
From the current levels of 12-14c in the plains, next 3 nights will see 18-19c due to clouds and rains . Days could drop to 25-27c in the plains.
As the system is too feeble, it will have no adverse effect on the NEM movement.
In the event of a W.D.turning out to be strong, the dipping trough, sometimes aloft, sort of "resists" the incoming currents of Easterly Waves from the Bay, or holds them up for the time being. Systems from the Bay are diverted, like we saw in the case of cyclone Giri, a W.D. dragging it Eastwards.This W.D. effect has been mentioned several times in Vagaries.
Temperatures on Thursday, 28th.October.
Lowest in Mah/Gujarat: 12c Udgir (Mah.).
Lowest in the Northern Plains: 10.6c Adampur (Punjab).
Lowest in India: -16c Shyok (Ladakh).
Mumbai page updated.