Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Tracking the Bay Low:

The much hyped about low in the Bay is situated as on 11.30 pm IST of Tuesday, 12th. October, at 17.8N and 89.4E. Works out east of the Indian state of Orissa. With wind speed at 15 to 20 knots, and a core pressure of 1007 mb, it can be just about designated as a low. JTWC and Hurricane Zone still term it on the "Low Level Circulation" stage.

Estimated future for this system is a potential deepening after the 14th, and crossing the coast of Orissa on the 16th. as a deep depression, with a core of around 994 mb.

High tides and coastal gusts along the North A.P./Orissa coast from the evening of 15th. till the system crosses inland.

As of today, the situation shows the system weakening rapidly on going inland, and tracking west-northwest into Chattisgarh and Eastern M.P. It will skirt the eastern parts of Vidharbha.Rainfall will be along this track from 16th. October.

I find the NCEP/GFS map of forecasted rain from 12th. to 18th, Oct, the most favourable in showing the rainfall along the path of the system. Notice, the heaviest rainfall is restricted along the coastline, about 135 mms. Westwards, we do not see any meaningfull heavy rains, rains about 50-60 mms are estimated here.

For accuracy, we will monitor and follow the system's deepening and its track twice a day, and give estimate accordingly.

On Tuesday, 12th.October.
Hottest in Asia: Makkah : 44c.
Hottest in Sub-Continent: Sibi and Nawabshah (Pakistan), Hissar and Nellore (India): 37c

In India, nights are yet above normal in the northern region, specially in the plains south of the Himalayas. The minimums are almost 2-4c above normal in the region.
The lowest night temperature in the plains was 16c at Sarsawa in U.P.

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