Saturday, October 30, 2010

The passing W.D. has brought warmer nights in the Northern regions. The average night temperatures in the plains of Northern India now have risen, and are in the 16c-18c range, higher than the previous few days. In fact the lowest in the northern plains was 13c at Hindon in U.P. on Saturday morning.
As discussed, this rise was expected due to the cloudy conditions, but this W.D. has almost moved away, and with clear skies in the next few nights, I expect the nights to bet cooler by Monday again.

Well the winds have changed! Literally. The SWM has moved away, giving way to the NEM from 29th.
The easterly waves have poured good rains in T.N. and coastal A.P.
Nellore 17, Ramanathapuram 11, Kavali 10, Venkatagiri town (Nellore dt) and Pamban 9 each were the highest receipants in cms, with Chennai measuring 64 mms in the 24 hrs ended Saturday morning.

Now all eyes on a new system from the Bay. The estimated system, which could gain strength and even become a cyclone, is projected to reach to a core pressure of 984 mb.
Likely to form in the Andaman Sea, on the 31st, its a pulse from 99B. The movement is expected to be westwards, and reach T.N. coast around the 6th. Nov. as a DD or cyclone.

Vagaries, looking at the synoptic scene today, projects the system to be seen by 31st. in the Andaman Sea, and move west, and cross the T.N. coast (could be Southern coast), around the 6th.
Later, after crossing inland,normally, it should move inland in a North-West track, and weaken. On weakening, its clouding will spread over an enlarged region, and cover all T.N,Karnataka and A.P, and South Mah. And thereby rains could be expected along its track.

Vagaries will monitor the development of this system from tomorrow, with updates.

Another low, albeit weak, is expected to form in the Arabian Sea off Goa/Karnataka coast around 3rd. November. besides cloudy weather in Gooa/Mah. coast, can precipitate light rains in madhya Mah. and Konkan.
But I prefer to wait before commiting to this development. Maybe for a couple of days.

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