Is it July or October ?? That's the question rightly put up our readers.
Mumbai is getting drizzle to medium rains since Sunday night, increasing to steady rain on Monday morning. Unexpected ? To an extent ,Yes ! As per the forecast put up on the Mumbai page yesterday, "Vagaries" estimated the rains after Monday evening. And, to the extent of around 5 mms was estimated for Monday. Subsequently, an increase in rains on Wednesday is put up.
The reason. Due to excessive and sudden heat, that we have been regularly mentioning in "Vagaries", an upper air circulation was anticipitated over South Gujarat from Monday. Today, we see the UAC over Gujarat at 850 hpa. But, in spite of the dry winds from the NW at lower levels, the cloud formation around this system is grossly enlarged. And today, we see the low level wind abruptly changing direction and becoming Westerlies, to almost "monsoon type".
Now, the question is, had the SWM retreated from Mumbai on 6th. Oct ? The answer is Yes ! The establishment of an anticyclone, anchored over the region North of Mah. has been time and again shown on the Vagaries blog, and the low level winds from the NW right into the peninsula region, including the whole of Mah. has been stressed upon in almost every write up. (Both signs of retreated Monsoon).
nt, in yesterday,s blog, I have mentioned the "MONSOON AXIS" shifting to the 20N level. The SWM remains withdrawn from Mah. and above. The axis generally shifts down to around between 15N and 17N during the commencement of the NEM.
That's why I have mentioned yesterday, that total removing of SWM and start of NEM could be possible soon.
Those interested See Mumbai page also.