vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather.
For once vagaries turned out to be inaccurate in comparison to IMD. IMD is stubborn that monsoon has not withdrawn from Maharashtra yet and has been proven right !!And I am not ready to buy the convectional rainfall theory for yesterdays disturbance with Surat getting 11 cms in 24 hours by Monday morning !!Seems the new LP in bay is supposed to setup weather over Central India with a breakaway from a WD. Mumbai can be affected !!
Emkay, the withdrawal of monsoon from Mah. (including Mumbai) was declared by Vagaries on 6th. after seeing the whole picture, and presenting it on the blog. The complete architecture of the weather pattern has become "post monsoon" and the anchored anticyclone stressed the point. all the parameters confirmed the retreat as frequently shown in vagaries.Parameters have changedEven IMD confirmed thaat the current rains in Mumbai was "not the work of the monsoon" (Today's TOI).Declaring the withdrawal is a superficial formality, and is based on synoptic conditions.Now, post monsoon rains can occur in Mumbai due to 1). An UAC or 2). a cyclone in the Arabian Sea or 3). convection or 4).a W.D. And this could happen within 10 days as in this year's case, or after even a month . We do get rains, sometimes 80/90 mms around divali, but we cannot extend the monsoon till then. .Anyway, that's my view, and I may be wrong in this calculation. The point is it rained, monsoon or not !
seems Oct 17-19th would be interesting. COLA is predicting weather system to be over MP-Vidarbha !!
emkay, seems the system is predicted to run thru central india by many models. Lets wait and see. If true, will be interesting.I mentioned in vagaries, could happen if no W.D. interference is encountered.Or if axis is in tandem.
as Pacific is still alive and may continue to send pulses into the Bay, I suppose next 3 months need to watch out for systems which escape incoming WDs and cross over !! quite interesting scenario..
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