Friday, October 22, 2010
1.Severe Cyclonic Storm "Giri" has tracked NE and is about to cross the land at Myanmar coast.The "away from the Indian coast" tracking is due to the W.D. heading eastwards, and was forecasted by Vagaries in the initial stage itself. With core pressure at 959 mb,and winds at 85 knots, it is likely to be harsh and fierce in Myanmar.
2.The mentioned W.D. is now active and precipitating rain in Kashmir and H.P, and overcast conditions in Punjab. Srinagar is 10c and raining at mid day on Friday. Expect snow in the higher ranges.The max. day temperature yesterday was 24c, and it has been at 25c average for the last week there. Amritsar is 20c at mid day today. Highs have been in the 30s last week. A cooling down, long overdue, will herald a seasonal change not only in the North, but also will be beneficial for the setting in of the NEM, one more +ve factor in addition to the yesterday's discussion on NEM.
3.The trough "dropping down" along the west coast, discussed in Vagaries in the last 2 articles, has almost formed an off shore trough, something similar to the seasonal off shore trough, and falls up to Karnataka coast ! An off shore trough along the west coast on 22nd. October !! Somewhat uncommon ! Shows effective rains along the west coast south of Goa. As a reader mentions of heavy monsoon rains from Udipi.
More on this in evening report.
25th October... SWM Withdraws.. & NEM sets in. (Estimated earlier in Vagaries on 14th) See (below) complete withdrawal dates from coun...