Saturday, March 26, 2011

The Bay of Bengal is starting its seasonal buzz. B1 is born, and its "baby name" is 93B.

Pleas glance thru Vagaries' Forecast for the weekend, put up on 23rd, before reading this post ! -:)

93B has formed as Vagaries estimated, on Saturday, 26th, and is presently just "young" at 1008 mb. It is centred at 9.1N and 93.7E. Expected to deepen, and attain a "well marked low" status by Monday, at 1004 mb. In the next couple of days, rainfall will be heavy and tropical in the Bay Islands.

But, Vagaries maintains, the system is not going to effect the Indian Coast, and may just fizzle out, by reaching 1002 mb at the peak, by mid next week. What will be seen is a big spread of clouds, that will "infalte " by Tuesday, covering the entire Bay.
When a system deepens, and gets stronger, the clouds are concised within a limited radius, and stick together. But when a system weakens, the clouding spreads over a larger area.

M3, also which has kept its Saturday schedule, is precipitating over Northern Pakistan today, Saturday. regions in India , the hill states, have also become cloudy, and seeing snow in the Northern most regions of the Himalayas. Like mentioned, M3 will slide into Nepal by Sunday/Monday, and give pockets of precipitation, including Kathmandu.

For the rest of the regions, Pakistan and Nepal, the weekend forecast mentioned holds good. Pakistan and India, both were contained to a maximum of 40c today.

Since vagaries forecast is up to Sunday, next 4 days forecast will be put up on Sunday night.

The clouds anticipitated in central India, including Vidharbh, featured in Vagaries' forecast map on the 23rd. This as explained, is a result of the line of wind discontinuity across this region.
Now, the line still persists, (though this was not anticipated. We thought it to survive for 2/3 days), and quote from a IMD report of 26th. "The trough/wind discontinuity at 0.9 km a.s.l. now runs from Bihar to south Tamil Nadu across Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka.''

Good News ! Mumbai Doppler Products are on-line !

Guys, Mark is back from his U.S. holiday, and has resumed his blog. The all important and informative " TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan." is back on the page, with details of the latest on Europe. Please read and get updated with Mark's blog. For new reader's, Mark's link is permanently put up on the right of this blog.

4 comments:

Neeraj said...

As for Kathmandu, it is cloudy and cool. It was drizziling a while ago but now it has stopped. The average March rainfall for Kathmandu is 30 mms but as yet we have received only 9.3 mms of rain. Is there any chance that 30 mm mark will be reached by the end of this month (its already 27th today)?

emkay said...

Rajesh, need guidance in interpreting Dopplers, kindly give a tutorial on that. different links..

rajesh said...

emkay,
I am not too well versed with this , and myself need to be educated in this line. But I have taken a clue to this from Akshay's blog at http://metdweather.blogspot.com/.. More explainations are also provided at the IMD Radar Page in FAQ.
reproduce what Akshay explains:SEE INTERACTIVE PAGE

rajesh said...

sorry..read "INTERACTION PAGE"