Friday, October 05, 2012


Friday, 5th Night:

The Arabian Sea trough moved inland, and carried the current UAC into South Interior Maharashtra on Friday night. Amongst other stations, Kolhapur and Sangli received around 15 mms till 5.30pm.Friday.
Where it is expected to precipitate thundershowers on Friday/Saturday. It will fade away by Sunday 7th.

However, the off shore trough behaves as if its full season, and will tend to move back to the coast by Monday. Conducive conditions will again give "birth" to another UAC off the Goa coast on Monday, 8th October. In fact, the winds and jet streams will favour the formation of a LOW in the Arabian Sea at sea level, off the Goa coast at 15N.
The East coast trough has moved away Eastwards, and now favours the formation of a sea level LOW in the central Bay region by Sunday/Monday.

Forecast for Saturday 6th and Sunday 7th:

Sticking to the earlier forecast, vagaries forecasts thundershowers in Madhya Maharashtra and South Konkan/Goa on Saturday. 
South Konkan rainfall continues into Sunday.
Light to scattered rains in North Konkan. South Gujarat coastline (Surat) can expect light rains on Saturday.
Similarly, AP gets moderate rains all over, with rainfall into the TN coasts on Sunday.

Mumbai: On Monsoon withdrawal, will take a shot after seeing the behavior of the Low, if it forms in the Arabian Sea. 

Decrease from Saturday in rainfall. Partly cloudy to sunny morning. Clouds by evening, and some thunder activity in the eastern regions. Light rains in a few pockets of the city. Around 7-10 mms average between the 2 stations.
Outer townships on mainland will get thundershowers, heavy in some towns.
Sunday: Foggy morning in the outer suburbs. Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Drifting thunderclouds might bring evening rain in some parts of city. Rain amount 5-7 mms.
For surrounding townships,Thundery developments will bring some rain in some cities.

Pune will see thundershowers again on Saturday and Sunday evening. Saturday showers may be heavy in some parts of Pune.

Delhi NCR has seen certain regions getting a bit cooler, and nippy in the morning. Gurgaon saw a low of 17c and Lodhi and Jafarpur 19c on Friday morning. Similar nippy mornings will be felt at the weekend. 


Pune gets more thundershowers weekend.

The other trough off the East coast  also  moves East. The embedded UAC tags along , but due to conducive conditions, can form a Low in the Central Bay by Sunday.

11 comments:

GSB said...

Kaushik nayak: How many predictions of the weather have you made in the past and how many have been correct? I have been trying for the last 7/8 years and my success rate is less than 2% or even worse... Weather by it's very nature is unpredictable due to the numerous variables involved.. even then Rajesh sir manages to accurately predict correctly a majority of the time... that's the reason this is the only weather blog of it's kind in India and probably in Asia... readers from all over the subcontinent follow it regularly...

You are welcome to make your own predictions on the comments section, and possibly learn from the experience of Rajesh sir and others...

Neeraj said...

Nippy morning here too Rajesh sir. Low of 16 for Thursday, Friday and this Saturday morning.High still in 29-30 range, so only the mornings are nippy till say 8 o'clock.
What's in store for the next week? please include in your forecast.

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, what's outlook for Western Vidarbha?

chandan kulkarni said...

today from mornin clouds were weeken and blue sky is appearin in Belgaum..but no rain from last night..cloud direction from west to north with some light winds..

emkay said...

Heavy smog ( deadly cocktail of moisture plus Taloja chemical fumes ) ensured zero visibility nearly in Khandeshwar-Kamothe-Kharghar belt. Drove car with fog lights on at 8 AM Next four months torrid time from chemical fumes with NE winds !! Already sore throat setting in.

Vijayanand said...

Weather changing in bangalore. Its a cloudy morning in bangalore with Sun peeping out every now and again. Expect some rain today or tomorrow.

sset said...

Emkay -if u say Khandeshwar--Taloja factory emissions is a problem inspite of large amount of greenary,hills in that area ... come to Bangalore -- horrible roads full of choked traffic 24hours + smell of roadside garbage .. factories around Bangalore..Electronic city, peenya worst.

sset said...

World Bank has proposed KARNATAKA AS MOST DRIEST STATE OF India.

Now if NEM fails KAR/TN will be in a hot spot...nobody knows consequences, dangerous position..

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/storage-levels-in-cauvery-basin-reservoirs-dip/article3970955.ece

Bandh in Bangalore is in progress - this just impacts livlihood of common poor people. Instead IISc, ISRO, in association with Technology rich IT should conduct research why south east interior India is having recursive droughts. Southern peninsula on whole is having decreasing rains for last 5 years. Bangalore many of the reasons being complete loss of big,old heritage trees, loss of all local lakes, massive increase in vehicles,IT offices, people ---city with its meagre resources cannot sustain this load ---still new layouts are coming up BBMP/BDA should be thrashed out.

Abhijit said...

Some Rain data of Konkan Belt ending 8.30am today on 6-10-2012.

Thane District
Kalyan 10mm
Bhivandi 5mm
Thane 3mm
Badlapur(own measured) 1mm

Raigad District
Mahasala 113mm
Murud 37mm
Pen 25mm
Panvel 7mm

Ratnagiri District
Ratnagiri 83mm
Sangameshwar 61mm
Rajapur 50mm
Lanja 47mm

Sindhudurg District
Malwan 72mm
Sawantwadi 37mm
Vengurla 35mm
Kankawali 30mm

emkay said...

@sset agree all those are irritants in Bangalore, but you need to feel a chemical pollution to know how it hurts !! lungs kids and old aged likely to be affected seriously

NT said...

It's suddenly become dark and overcast at Juhu. Cool breeze has begun to flow as well, I think we will recieve a shower soon. By the way the current COLA maps show moderate to heavy rains in Mumbai today and tomorrow with no rains from Tuesday onwards.

While I love rains but like most people now would want to see the end of the 2012 Monsoon in Mumbai, we have had our fun the last 4 months, time for some drier / cooler weather to make it's way. Looking to moth ball my umbrella :-)