Monday, October 22, 2012

Posted @ 8.25 pm Tuesday.....

As-1 moves away from Indian coasts and Islands  and being at 11N and 63.5E, will not have any direct effect on India. Even, it has not deepened more than 1007 mb as on 1200Z Tuesday.
Though thick clouding is seen around the system , the lack of  any spiral formation or curvature shows it just as a normal deep low, and not forming any cyclic formations.

South Mumbai received fairly heavy showers on Tuesday evening with thunder. This has resulted from thunderclouds formation in the mainland. These got the impulse and convection energy from the "city thermals" rising due to oppressive heat today.Higher humidity (compared to last 2 days, and a drop in pressure by 5 mb added the "fuel".(See vagaries readings)
Rains will not last beyond night, even if a lone shower shifts North, and all activity will cease by Wednesday as mentioned.

Rainfall till 8.30 pm at Vagaries: 11 mms.

Arabian Sea: (posted 8.30 pm Monday)
True to Vagaries' forecast, the system moves away from the Indian coast Westwards  and as mentioned (Friday article), shall have no effect on Indian coast after Tuesday. 

However, rain/Thundershowers may develop in the Interior Mumbai-Pune region along the ghats. We can expect rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, maybe evening/night, along the mainland  East of Mumbai upto Pune, and also in the townships near Mumbai on the mainland.
Precipitation may also occur (Tuesday and Wednesday) in South Madhya Maharashtra. Mahableshwar can get showers also.

Expecting more rains in Pune next 2/3 days.
Mumbai City will be partly cloudy on Tuesday 23rd, with more cloud cover by evening. Light rain/drizzle expected. Clearing from Wednesday onward.

North:
It seems, the weather front (WD) currently South of the Caspian Sea, between 30N and 35N, may possibly move NE and may at the most effect the Northern most Kashmir regions.
Meanwhile, dry weather in the Northern plains will result in a further fall in night temperatures after Wednesday. 
Delhi NCR: Parts of this region have started showing a fall in night temperatures. Gurgaon saw 13.9c on Monday, and central Delhi (S'Jung/Lodhi ) was around 16c.
After a steady 2/3 days, we can expect another 1/2c fall after Wednesday 24th.
Dry Weather for Kathmandu next few days, and fall in night temperatures to between 10/12c after Dussera.

Bay:
An UAC has formed in the trough along the Andaman Islands. Should develop into a Low around Thursday, 25th,. Can deepen to form a depression. While monitoring the track of this (yet to form low) system, we must closely observe the WD in the far West.

If we go  as per today's estimate, over and above the Indian region, then AP better start getting prepared. 
If the approaching WD is diverted Southwards to move thru Northern Pakistan and N.Indian states of Punjab/HP, Bengal/Bangladesh should sound an alert.

63 comments:

Arpit Sharma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Arpit Sharma said...

WDs are coming more frequently this year...

Abhijit said...

Yes , As-1 moving west and looking like it will cross Suqatra island by Tuesday night then moving towards Gulf of Aden by Wednesday night..

And new Bay System looking like hovering near Car Nicobar island only till Friday !!

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Whether thunderstorm around Mumbai region would generate from remnant moisture of AS- 1 around 24 Oct Period that is on Dasara festival ! As some weather models predicting it !!

But I feel it will remain south till Ratnagiri Dist in Konkan and till Pune in interior Maharashtra.

So what are the chances of Thunderstorm for North Konkan belt !!

rajesh said...

abhijit: Rains will be scattered in interiors along West Madhya Mah. Pune will get showers as mentioned in blog.
sset: All SWM toppers are put up on Stats page last week...

Ron said...

it was drizzling in anushaktinagar deonar at 10pm..for 15min...

Abhijit said...

Today morning having less cloud cover compare to last 2days and bit foggy also in Badlapur. So min temp is 23 C here.

Puneet Bangera said...

Yesterday,Dombivli got light to moderate showers lasting for 30 min.

Abhijit said...

As per satellite image it is looking like Lakshadeep island is under heavy rain !

Unknown said...

Abhijit, there is a scuba diving camp presently going on at Lakshdweep experincing heavy intermittent showers and persistent drizzle for last 2-3 days...potey

rajesh said...

Abhijit: Minicoy recorded 92 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday..

AS-1 weakens and at 1007 mb, is westwards at 11.5N and 64E..

Abhijit said...

@ Unknown. Potey.. Thanks for the live update from Lakshadeep island.. Very nice place it is .. @ Rajesh Sir. Thanks for the rain data. Waiting Karvatti rain data. In between Mumbai also on average got 1mm rain last night. And few mainland suburbs also got showers last night.

Abhijit said...

Kavaratti records 49mm rain till 8.30am Tuesday.

Abhijit said...

Solapur 11mm & Satara 3mm till 8.30am Tuesday. It seems Thunderstorm rain there..

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, Are google earth cloud pictures real time updates? How much is the lag, if any ? ...potey

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu temp for past 8 days is
15-Oct 26 12
16-Oct 26.5 12
17-Oct 26.5 12
18-Oct 26.8 11.4
19-Oct 27 12.3
20-Oct 26.2 11.4
21-Oct 26 11
22-Oct 27 12
the lows are in the normal range, the highs a bit above average. Can we expect further fall in night time temp ? And as far as rain is concerned, this October has been very dry, we can normally expect around 50 mms this month, this year no rain to talk about.

Arpit Sharma said...

Today's IMD forecast for Delhi states 'light rain/thunderstorm towards late night/morning'.Day is more hazy today than yesterday with some high clouds.

Arpit Sharma said...

Now its cloudy and black in western side.

Arpit Sharma said...

Sudden surprise here again as on 16oct,now clouds thundering and drizzling.

Arpit Sharma said...

GK2 weather station showing temp 19c,wind speed around 56km/hr and 3mm rain.

Arpit Sharma said...

Temp at GK2 around 18c with around 12mm. Here in GZB huge thunder and lightning accompanied with light rain.

Arpit Sharma said...

Now raining moderately with stormy winds.

Arpit Sharma said...

Rain has stopped now,only very drizzle.

Arpit Sharma said...

Seems more thunderstorms are approaching Delhi-NCR.

RK Chaudhary said...

heavy rain, hails, thunderstorm over many parts of delhi-ncr including noida...but only dust storm at G.Noida...weather is cool now..

Arpit Sharma said...

@RK
Another thunderstorm is approaching might reach in next 2-2.5hrs and pour over G.Noida.

Abhijit said...

As per Mumbai Radar thunderstorm has been developed east of Matheran, east of Dahanu and in parts of Pune & Nashik districts

Abhijit said...

Today max temp of Badlapur raised to 33.3 C. Last 2days it was 31 C due to overcast condition.

RK Chaudhary said...

@Arpit, yes there are more thunderstorms west of Delhi as per the doppler radar...
lets hope your forecast for G.Noida goes true :D

Arpit Sharma said...

Seems the thunderstorms are weakning now.

Abhijit said...

Easterly cool wind and dark cloud cover increasing over Badlapur. But as per radar thunderstorm is weakening !

Abhijit said...

Thick drops drizzle started in Badlapur

Abhijit said...

Slight lightening flashes seen and drizzles made road wets and stopped now. 1mm in 10mins here in Badlapur.

Arpit Sharma said...

Thick drops falling here in GZB from the past 15 minutes.

Arpit Sharma said...

Now raining heavily without any thunder,seems like monsoon rain.

Puneet Bangera said...

Very heavy rain in dombivli.

Abhijit said...

Strong lightening and huge thundering in west horizon of Badlapur now. Its seem thunderstorm taking place in Kalyan - Dombivli belt.

Arpit Sharma said...

Now stopped and sky clearing a bit

PRASAD GODASE said...

Today it raining heavily in akole from 4pm to 6pm. so easily we can get more than 40mm rain in 2 hour.

rajesh said...

heavy rain at Mahalaxmi since 10 minutes now...slowing down now,

rajesh said...

as yet, rains totally restricted to south and central Mumbai..and Thane regions....
cannot last long, as it has drifted from the mainland and caught on the thermals around the city...

Abhijit said...

In Badlapur there was lot of variation in rain patterns.. Eastern part received just drizzles.. Middle town road wet level showers. And western part of town potholes filling with water which means heavy showers. My area received just roads wet drizzling.

Abhijit said...

In Badlapur thunder head started to
develop from 5pm onwards. And first
drizzle came at 6.30pm with no lightening
& thundering at all from East. Then from
7pm onwards till now strong lightening &
thundering but then from 7pm onwards just drops falling till now.

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Can we say today's thunderstorm event an part of NEM ?

rajesh said...

abhijit: When the AS-1 system was around the India coast, till today morning, we had mentioned the spiral clouds moving from the system into Mah. these cloudings were seen (from AS-1) into interior Mah and parts of karnataka since 2 days. Now, the system has moved away, but moisture remains in sufficient quantity to precipitate rains. That is why i had forecast rains with thunder in interiors till wednesday (see current post).
In short NOT part of NEM..

Arpit Sharma said...

Rajesh sir,what is the forecast for tomorrow.

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thanks for the explanation. One thing noticed when system was above Badlapur which came from Karjat - Matheran end it was not looking strong enough but as it moved west it got stronger and from Ulhasnagar it started to poured heavily.. Badlapur was having 33.3 C max temp only so not much thermal here ! Pune 32 C max temp missed thunder event completely !

rajesh said...

arpit:Few places around NCR recieved showers today...though not forecasted by vagaries, and unexpected. Out now, shall come back tonite in an hour..

Ron said...

deafening thunders in deonar

sam khan said...

heavy rains in goregoan.

sam khan said...

todays rains were unpredictable

rajesh said...

sam khan:Though few areas Mumbai City like goregaon and here at Mahalaxmi got 12 mms, most areas and parts of city passed off with only a drizzle.The avearge rain works out to very little between the 2 stations.
The forecast put up for today was partly cloudy with clouds increasing by evening, and light rain/drizzle expected.


Arpit: Checked up the charts and reasoned out todays rainfall in some regions of NCR.
A trough formed today at 850 hpa extended from Kashmir thru HP till Delhi region.
Yes, i expected it to be dry in the plains today, as the trough till yesterday was restricted to the hills and quite weak.
No rains tomorrow, as conditions turn unfavourable.

Arpit Sharma said...

Thnx sir for the info.

RK Chaudhary said...

Raining with thunder @G.Noida

Arpit Sharma said...

@RK
At last you got rain.

RK Chaudhary said...

@Arpit, Yes, finally...your forecast was correct :)

GSB said...

Thane city received 45mm rainfall Tuesday evening. Thankfully the temperature has come down by a couple of degrees.

Abhijit said...

Very thick drops steady light to medium rain in Badlapur from past 20mins that is from 5.40am onwards . No lightening or thundering its just raining. Min temp is 24 C here in Badlapur. Woke up just now with rain sound outside .

Abhijit said...

5mm rain recorded in 30mins spell here in Badlapur for today early morning spell.

emkay said...

Happy to stand vindicated reg. yesterday's rains in Mumbai. Refer my long back comment - Rains signoff during Garba playing days (Navaratri). Thank you Nature & the greatness of the Hindu Calendar

Abhijit said...

In morning period also thunderheads like cloud visible in many directions over Badlapur.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, some international weather patterens are predicting rains for mumbai till today.

sam khan said...

looks like Arabian sea has become more active ,as per the formation of clouds is concerned, then the bay of bengal this year during the north east monsoon.