As-1 moves away from Indian coasts and Islands and being at 11N and 63.5E, will not have any direct effect on India. Even, it has not deepened more than 1007 mb as on 1200Z Tuesday.
Though thick clouding is seen around the system , the lack of any spiral formation or curvature shows it just as a normal deep low, and not forming any cyclic formations.
South Mumbai received fairly heavy showers on Tuesday evening with thunder. This has resulted from thunderclouds formation in the mainland. These got the impulse and convection energy from the "city thermals" rising due to oppressive heat today.Higher humidity (compared to last 2 days, and a drop in pressure by 5 mb added the "fuel".(See vagaries readings)
Rains will not last beyond night, even if a lone shower shifts North, and all activity will cease by Wednesday as mentioned.
Rainfall till 8.30 pm at Vagaries: 11 mms.
Arabian Sea: (posted 8.30 pm Monday)
True to Vagaries' forecast, the system moves away from the Indian coast Westwards and as mentioned (Friday article), shall have no effect on Indian coast after Tuesday.
However, rain/Thundershowers may develop in the Interior Mumbai-Pune region along the ghats. We can expect rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, maybe evening/night, along the mainland East of Mumbai upto Pune, and also in the townships near Mumbai on the mainland.
Precipitation may also occur (Tuesday and Wednesday) in South Madhya Maharashtra. Mahableshwar can get showers also.
Expecting more rains in Pune next 2/3 days.
Mumbai City will be partly cloudy on Tuesday 23rd, with more cloud cover by evening. Light rain/drizzle expected. Clearing from Wednesday onward.
It seems, the weather front (WD) currently South of the Caspian Sea, between 30N and 35N, may possibly move NE and may at the most effect the Northern most Kashmir regions.
Meanwhile, dry weather in the Northern plains will result in a further fall in night temperatures after Wednesday.
Delhi NCR: Parts of this region have started showing a fall in night temperatures. Gurgaon saw 13.9c on Monday, and central Delhi (S'Jung/Lodhi ) was around 16c.
After a steady 2/3 days, we can expect another 1/2c fall after Wednesday 24th.
Dry Weather for Kathmandu next few days, and fall in night temperatures to between 10/12c after Dussera.
An UAC has formed in the trough along the Andaman Islands. Should develop into a Low around Thursday, 25th,. Can deepen to form a depression. While monitoring the track of this (yet to form low) system, we must closely observe the WD in the far West.
If we go as per today's estimate, over and above the Indian region, then AP better start getting prepared.
If the approaching WD is diverted Southwards to move thru Northern Pakistan and N.Indian states of Punjab/HP, Bengal/Bangladesh should sound an alert.