Friday, October 26, 2012


BB-10 situation on Friday evening, 26th October:

BB-10 in the Bay, having tracked West from yesterday's report, is now situated at 10N and 92.5 E. Core pressure at 1004 mb, and 15 knts winds, without any firm circulation.

BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c, will continue west tracking. The ridge from South West Bengal running thru Bangladesh, will keep the track in the Westward direction. 

Now, as we have discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor now could be a factor to consider for BB-10. 

A (O-3), WD in the Caspian region may move into Northern Sub-Continent regions. Watching the current charts, the speed of the WD movement seems such that the Northern Pakistan areas may get the WD effect from the 28th October. 

If so, this will restrict BB-10 from tracking North, or even NW, and will contain it within 10N.
Hence, as discussed yesterday, this combination of formations could  favour rains for TN and Southern AP, from Monday, as BB-10 moves towards the east coast,  .

An UAC/Low has formed on the Southern tip of India, at 8N and 72E west of Sri Lanka. As mentioned yesterday, and as of now, i see this tracking  west/North-west,  into the Arabian Sea. 

9 comments:

Abhijit said...

As I was expecting yesterday that min temp may fall around 20 C.

So today morning Badlapur was having 20.7 C as min temp. So was bit chilly and fans were turn off after 3am .

sset said...

With deep respects for Rajesh Sir let us hope this gives measurable rains over South India and low should persists for large duration.

As of now entire Cauvery belt over TN/KAR has not received any rains. Pradeep that is my concern. KAR govt spent 10crores on cloud seeding last week when no clouds were present!!!

sset said...

Bangalore latest news - After persistent droughts, environment abuse- cutting trees, IT/malls over lake bed, sky mounting garbages we now have latest addition -
BIRD FLU!!!!

In my life I have never seen city like Bangalore where everything runs as tangent to circle!!!!

sset said...

Weather blog has already mentioned next depression over AS - west coast - move NW i.e Gulf/Somalia. AS remains to be volatile compared Bay much against principles of NEM.

http://ow.ly/i/144w0

sam khan said...

SSET there will be heavy rains in bangalore this week , so dont be upset conditions will turn favourable for heavy rains in bangalore, with two developing systems on either side, of the peninsula. keep fingers crossed.hope for the best.and as far as the (AS) is concerned this one should make its landfall on the west coast , still need to keep a close watch, as Rajesh has mentioned earlier this is at a developing stage , so we need to wait n watch.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, this is completely my personel point of view , i feel this system will develop n move in northernly direction and then will make sudden turn towards our western coast also the winds will take a sudden change that is southernly direction will favour the movement of this system towards us.

rajesh said...

sam khan: yes sam. and its always good to get different views and opinions. Please keep them coming.
in your forecast, west coast will get battering SWM style.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir thanks for ur encouragement , yes i too feel very strongly that our western coast is going to get battered by the heavy rains, by the influence of this system that is developing in the arabian sea as it is going to head towards the western coast later this week. , right from south gujrat to goa, will have its influence.i wonder what will be its influence on mumbai and the intensity of the rain.

sam khan said...

rajesh sir , i have a query , with this As-2 on its way towards our coast later this week what will be its real effect on mumbai . will it rain like south west monsoon style.