BB-10 situation on Friday evening, 26th October:
BB-10 in the Bay, having tracked West from yesterday's report, is now situated at 10N and 92.5 E. Core pressure at 1004 mb, and 15 knts winds, without any firm circulation.
BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c, will continue west tracking. The ridge from South West Bengal running thru Bangladesh, will keep the track in the Westward direction.
Now, as we have discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor now could be a factor to consider for BB-10.
A (O-3), WD in the Caspian region may move into Northern Sub-Continent regions. Watching the current charts, the speed of the WD movement seems such that the Northern Pakistan areas may get the WD effect from the 28th October.
If so, this will restrict BB-10 from tracking North, or even NW, and will contain it within 10N.
Hence, as discussed yesterday, this combination of formations could favour rains for TN and Southern AP, from Monday, as BB-10 moves towards the east coast, .
An UAC/Low has formed on the Southern tip of India, at 8N and 72E west of Sri Lanka. As mentioned yesterday, and as of now, i see this tracking west/North-west, into the Arabian Sea.