Friday, October 19, 2012


Chennai Rains Decreasing from next Tuesday (23rd), and Mumbai stuffy and hot weather coming this weekend ..Delhi getting cooler !

An UAC, descending down to 925 hpa levels has formed near North Sri Lanka at around 10N, and extended clouding associated with the system is more in the Northern quadrant due to strong "incoming" NE winds from the Bay. 
System will move West, roughly along the 10N line, as the trough (axis) runs along this line, and may sustain as a Low. The high pressure in the Arabian Sea prevents the system from deepening or pushing Northwards.
As the Low moves West, rainfall will be heavy on the weekend in interior TN, S.I. Karnataka and Kerala. Madurai region will get heavy precipitation this weekend.
Bangalore,overcast with intermittent rains on Saturday.

The direct effect of the low, may decrease along East coast after Tuesday 23rd. Chennai can see a decrease in rains from Wednesday,24th. 
Due to strong E/NE winds from the mainland into the Arabian Sea, and partly heading into the system, we can expected "loop" clouding stretching from the AP coast into the west thru Karnataka and South/Central Maharashtra from Sunday 21st. 
System moves away Westwards without effect on Indian coast after Tuesday 23rd.

A fresh WD, O-2, moves into India on Friday night. It will precipitate light rains (snow in Kashmir) in Kashmir, Punjab and HP on Saturday and Sunday. It will not effect the other regions in the plains of NW India.
A drop in night temperatures was seen from Thursday night, and expected 2/3 c fall is seen. Delhi S'Jung was at a minimum of 17.5c, while Gurgaon was 14.2c.
A further fall of 1/2c next 2 nights. Delhi going to 15/16c  and NCR regions 13/14c.

Mumbai: More heat and stuffy weather for Mumbai:
Saturday 20th: Hot and warm with the day around 34/35c. High clouding drifting in around late afternoon/evening. Resulting in a stuffy and warm night, rising the night temperatures to 25c.

Sunday 21st/Monday 22nd: Partly cloudy, with alto cumulus clouds and strato cumulus patches. May receive light drizzles in some parts on Sunday. Day temperatures around 32c and night 25/26c.
Similar weather for the outer townships around Mumbai on the mainland.

Pune: 
Saturday 20th: Warm with east winds bringing in some clouding.
Sunday 21st: Cloudy with light drizzles in some parts. Light rains persisiting on Monday with cloudy day. Thundery conditions likely on Monday night and Tuesday getting rains.



As the SWM retreats, and has withdrawn from the entire country, we have a load of valuable and useful figure computations and information pouring in from our readers.

To accommodate and keep all information and figures "handy" and easily available, a new page "Stats and Analysis" has been created on Vagaries. This will keep all information on rain and temperature figures handy , and easily available to readers easily accessible for later on reading.

Initially, today, i have kept GSB's latest October analysis on front page (below), and Pradeep's SWM Toppers on the new page....please go thru these fantastic contributions by both... 


6 comments:

Arpit Sharma said...

Pleasent weather here in Delhi-NCR today with maximum around 30-31c.Generally fans are off by 25 oct,lets see what happens this year!

Arpit Sharma said...

And seems my prediction is going right,fans must be off by 23-24oct.

sam khan said...

weather is going to bring some activity in the Arabian sea ,the folloowing week. need to keep watch on it.

sset said...

Will NE monsoon sustain for next 2 months?? Entire SE Bay seems clear, Sri Lanka seems clear. Current clouds over TN/south AP will vanish in next 2 days. What next???

We do not see heavy falls associated with UACs like recent Maharashtra/Raj - falls of 300mm - 400mm in 24hours recorded. This is required for TN/south KAR if extreme drought has to subside.

Bangalore got only laughable 5mm!!

Arpit Sharma said...

Hazy weather here in Ghaziabad.Now temp is around 30c(bit hot).Yesterday some places in western rajasthan received light showers,might be from UAC or WD?

rajesh said...

those concerned: Yesterday, Navi Mumbai was 36.7c (max)...

Arpit: For Rajasthan its the UAc which was along Sindh coast, now as a secodary system in the trough from O-2...if not clear please ask