Brief Report:..posted @ 10.30am Wednesday.
AS-1 has deepened, and intensified into a stronger system, with core winds at 30-33 knots and core pressure calculated at 1000 mb. The upper atmosphere ridge line, originally at 12N has moved North at 14N as the High pressure ridge in the region weakened.
Intense convection, with cloud height reaching 15-18 kms and cloud top temperatures at -79c, has now created a 3 level formation within the storm. Resultantly, wind shear around the AS-1 region drops drastically to 5-10 knots.
As the shear is 30 knots in the North/West quadrant, it shows spiraling 30 knots winds, the maximum within the system. Hence the spiral clouds have formed. The centre is still not defined, as the shear is low near the centre.
No effect on the Sub-Continent region. But later, some clouding could "spiral" into adjoining Sindh/Kutch coast by Thursday/Friday.
Could now track west/NW, keeping the ridge in mind. But, Salalah in Oman and Southern shores of Oman can expect rains.
The projected Low for the Bay has formed in the Gulf of Siam, and at 1008 mb, has already embedded in the axis and started tracking Westwards. It is showing Southward equtorial flow...more on this to continue...