BB-10 situation on Thursday, 25th October:
The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, hence vagaries numbers it as BB-10.
BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c.
Now, as we have earlier discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this BB-10 is concerned.
There is no WD coming.
In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region.
With this, we could very well see BB-10 tracking due West...and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.
An UAC/Low can also form just on the Southern tip of India, west of Sri Lanka in the next 36 hrs. Though system not mentioned anywhere, i see this tracking due west into the Arabian Sea.
We had discussed rains persisting in the Madhya Mah region this week. Pune records 18 mms and various rainfall amounts are recorded in Solapur and Mahableshwar areas.
Remnant rains will persist for a day more in the Pune region, till Friday, with isolated rains in patches.
Outer townships around Mumbai, may see a very isolated thunderhead, not strong though. Some "hollow" thunderheads may appear. Precipitation in small patch likely for today only.