Thursday, October 25, 2012

"Frankenstorm" may move up the East Coast of U.S...See International Page on this Blog


BB-10 situation on Thursday, 25th October:

The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, hence vagaries numbers it as BB-10.
BB-10 is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c. 

Now, as we have earlier discussed possibilities of the tracks before, the WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this BB-10 is concerned. 
There is no WD coming.
In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region. 
With this, we could very well see BB-10 tracking due West...and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.

An UAC/Low can also form just on the Southern tip of India, west of Sri Lanka in the next 36 hrs. Though system not mentioned anywhere, i see this tracking due west into the Arabian Sea.

We had discussed rains persisting in the Madhya Mah region this week. Pune records 18 mms and various rainfall amounts are recorded in Solapur and Mahableshwar areas.
Remnant rains will persist for a day more in the Pune region, till Friday, with isolated rains in patches.
Outer townships around Mumbai, may see a very isolated thunderhead, not strong though. Some "hollow" thunderheads may appear. Precipitation in small patch likely for today only.

16 comments:

Abhijit said...

If UAC/Low forms over Arabain sea then again it will follow same current Murjan track ! That is again moving towards Somalia / Gulf of Aden belt !

Arpit Sharma said...

After rain,both min and max temperatures are down by 3-4c.

sset said...

Exactly Abhijit - myself was trying to convey same in earlier blogs. If you notice between -5 to 5 degree latitude - multiple depressions all following western trajectory to hit Saudi/Gulf/Somalia. None can touch TN/AP - very very bad - same was noticed 2011 NE monsoon also. We see change in NE monsoon currents.


Peculiar fact - all erstwhile deserts like Rajishthan,Saurashthra,Kutch,Gujarat are receiving more rains in recent years and now Saudi/Gulf/Somalia joins the troupe - but Sri Lanka/Southe east interior South India/TN is becoming drier. Any supporters for me?????

sam khan said...

u r right sset, arabian sea looks more active, then the bay of bengal,really looks like NEM is changing its track.

sam khan said...

May be ,In few years down the lane, NEM will be active in the arabian sea bringing rains on the west coast instead of eastern side.

keaweather said...

Sam/sset,

NEM rains have been excellent all over TN. we have had more than 300 mm in Chennai in the first week of the monsoon alone. Add a few more hundreds next week with the possible LP/dep

keaweather said...

Sset,
I can understand your concern regarding the weather in Bangalore. this is just an off year for you guys. Everything will be normal next year. But you had good rains in May this year.

rajesh said...

sset/sam: cheer up ! like i mentioned, conditions around Bangladesh can get favourable to allow BB-10 to steer towards TN/AP...

abhijit: no, the new low, if forming, will be almost at 8N, and may steer due west...

Abhijit said...

Today morning Badlapur was having 22.7 as min temp. And also cumulus clouds with some black clouds spreaded in all horizon and bit breezy from SE.

Abhijit said...

From 2pm onwards Northerly winds blowing in Badlapur. Max temp was 32.7 C at 2.30pm.
So looking like now min temp may fall and stay around 20 C here..

s(m)al said...

Hello Rajesh, I'm a journalist with The Times of India and I'm working on a story on weather bloggers. I'd like to interview you for the story. Please contact me at shalini.umachandran1@timesgroup.com.
shalini

s(m)al said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
emkay said...

Chiplun getting rains at 1800hrs

sam khan said...

rajesh sir some weather patterns, show that the depression in the arabian sea is going to hit our western coast.

sam khan said...

abhijit this new depression in the arabian sea looks like is heading towards western coast , no somalia but india.

rajesh said...

sam Khan: System is yet just an UAC..considering the current conditions, and the advent of another WD, it could track W/NW.
Depending on the strength, it may produce cloudings alonf the coast, maybe a spiral if the core is deep ..