Friday, October 05, 2012


Friday Morning Situation:

1. The Arabian Sea UAC is now embedded in a weakish trough off the West coast. Centered at around 50 kms South of Mumbai, that is partly on land. 
2. A strongish off shore trough from sea level to 850 hpa runs Southwards from the (seasonal) low over the NE states of India. It runs along the coastline upto AP coast. As on Friday morning, due to its strength, it has an embedded vortex at 700 hpa formed off the North AP coast. 

3. Due to excessive "high pressure" and anti-cyclone dominance in the NW regions, (normal for this time as SWM has withdrawn from NW), both the above trough lines (1. and 2.) are expected to move Eastwards.

The Arabian Sea trough moves inland, and carries the UAC into South Interior Maharashtra by Friday night. Where it is expected to precipitate thundershowers on Friday/Saturday. It will fade away by Saturday.
Mumbai gets thunder developments on Friday evening with showers drifting into the city and some regions getting localised heavy downpours. 
Marked decrease from Saturday in rainfall. 

Pune gets more thundershowers next 2 days.

The other East coast trough also  moves East. The embedded UAC tags along , but due to conducive conditions, can form a Low in the Central Bay by Sunday.

34 comments:

Abhijit said...

Some Rain data from Konkan belt ending 8.30am today on 5-10-2012.

Ratnagiri District

Sangameshwar 223mm
Lanja 131mm
Ratnagiri 129mm
Dapoli 83mm
Khed 47mm
Chiplun 38mm

Sindhudurg District

Kudal 65mm
Kankawali 60mm
Malwan 47mm
Vengurla 38mm
Sawantwadi & Dodamarg 37mm
Vaibhavwadi 34mm

Thane District

Badlapur(own measured) 37mm
Barvi Dam, Badlapur 27mm
Murbad 17mm
Ulhasnagar 6mm

Raigad District

Shriwardhan 19mm
Alibag 14mm
Karjat 13mm
Panvel 5mm

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thanks for explaining the reason behind of clouding mass formation over North AP coast till NE states.

Junaid said...

@abhijit vengurle is my native place!i doubt the panvel readings though,,as panvel received two spells of rain !! Nd it must have gauged atleast 10-20mm yesterday

Abhijit said...

@ Junaid. At your residential place which is at New Panvel might have rained around 15mm.

But this readings I guess are from Old Panvel which is 2.5kms SW from your place. So rain can vary in small distance too..

Now see yesterday's example only Ambernath got 25mm but Ulhasnagar 3kms WNW of Ambernath received just 3mms!!

emkay said...

Rajesh, slight correction to your blog, you have inadvertantly stated that the Bay UAC will move West, think it should be eastwards like the West coast UAC is doing.

sset said...

Rajesh - any hope for rains over Bangalore??? sept-oct both have turned out to be hot. By the temperatures are like summer. TN many places touched above 40degrees. With this NEM is a question mark?

Sangameshwar to get 250mm in 24hours for month of october is a surprise. This change in pattern may have an impact on southern NEM monsoon.

Junaid said...

@emkay wat is an iirfcian sumthng...?i gave u my emil id junaidtaj13@gmail.com
i thot u dnt see my earlier comment so posted again!!

rajesh said...

emkay: Thanks .corrected typo error...

emkay said...

will mail you soon. have you not posted few train pics on the Konkan track in front of your house ? so assumed you are a railfan !! or may be a mistaken identity.
irfca stands indian rail fans club (extra a stands as initially founders were in America ) :) check their website at http://www.irfca.org

Advance apology to Rajesh for violating the new code of conduct reg. commenting only on weather

rajesh said...

emkay: -:)

Junaid said...

it has started raining here moderately ,,thunderstorn approached frm north direction

Junaid said...

@emkay!:):)

Junaid said...

@emkay for me the railways are a nuisance,,,constant honking of trains makes our lyff hell!!
@rajesh ,,sorry for extending comments beyond weather,,But i guess emkay isnt thr on the fb page of vagaries !!

Abhijit said...

Badlapur has turned cloudy with bit thundering and just few drops fallen and stopped now. Here it does not look like coming from any direction just formed above itself and started thundering.

NT said...

South Mumbai should get some light rains soon. As per the doppler it should be in the next 30 minutes. Meanwhile pockets of heavy rains building up E, NE and SE of Mumbai. As mentioned by Rajeshbhai, the rains do not appear to be widespread which means they will be hit and miss.

Abhijit said...

@ NT. Just 5kms North of Badlapur heavy rains are on from last 30mins. I can see it directly from terrace. But here just drops falling with thundersound continous.

NT said...

Looking at the Doppler since the last 2 hrs., it seems that the clouds are just 'stuck' at a place or are moving very slowly. I was expecting a rain shower to move into South-Central Mumbai around 30 min. back, the clouds are still lingering in the sea off the East coast of Mumbai. Same thing about the cloud / rain that Abijit was talking about, it is NE of Thane and just seems to hang in there.

Abhijit said...

@ NT. It's very irritating to me also. From past 1hr I am observing all heavy rains just 5kms north of Badlapur and so dark in North and here just drops falling. And as system is very close to Badlapur I can see continous huge lightening & severe thundersounds but all activity just 5kms north of Badlapur only. Here half is very dark and remaining half south side sky is whitish & yellowish. As no winds at all so can it be one of the reason for storm to remain so stationery ! Rajesh Sir can only answer it now.

Abhijit said...

Just now report from mine friend that Heavy rain started in Kalyan.Here just drops continuing. So whether Badlapur is bypassed now !

paulodon said...

heavy rain and extremly dark clouds over thane now....not much of thunder though.....

paulodon said...

very very heavy rain in thane...

Pavan said...

Lot of thunder activity gou.g on in northern pune i am nt getting tch wch my friends for details.
Sir what will be direction on probable low in bay from sunday? Will it move west towards vid int mah or n ne

Arpit Sharma said...

@emkay
IRI is also a good railway site.

Puneet Bangera said...

It's raining here in dombivli.

NT said...

@Abhijit, purely looking at the Doppler radar, looks to me like Badlapur has been bypassed for now. Don't see much rain coming your way atleast for the next 2-3 hours.

Ron said...

saw the best live example of localised shower today...took a bus from mahalaxmi at about 4:45pm..all clear,sunny & when i reach suman nagar/chembur area...i could see rain on one side & none on the other..was beautiful..lot of lightning and thunder..deonar was one of the worst hit imo...was flooded badly...deonar side of sion-panvel road turned into a river with guttars overflowing..even my house got flooded..its still raining heavily...i got to know later that its been raining heavily since 4:30pm in deonar..

Abhijit said...

@ Ron & NT. Yes thunderstorm are localized and many times heavy rains are in small patches. But what irritated me that how can thunderstorm get stucked at one place for 1hr & then suddenly covered the Kalyan, Dombivli, Thane, Mhape belt. BTW Badlapur enjoyed heavy thunderstorm yesterday which none of suburbs got it..

Ramesh said...

Just started raining around kahr subway

Tejas Baxi said...

rain started at borivali.

kaushik nayak said...

the forecast for withdrawal of monsoon from mumbai in this blog was a blunder and needs to be revoked..when is it going to stop raining in mumbai..?can any one tell me for sure..?

rajesh said...

Kaushik: You want to know something for sure ? No one can forecast anything "for sure".
I do not have to justify this but (just saying): Vagaries put up an original withdrawal date as 10th October for Mumbai around 20th September. Anyone with good meteorological knowledge would say that such a long range forecast can normally vary.
Then vagaries changed the date again to 5th October. And as per the last article again back to 10th october seeing the changes in conditions.
vagaries cannot claim to have "blundered" when it has forecasted several systems (including the current UAC) well before any international model did, and even today morning's forecasted Low for Sunday in the Bay has now been put in IMD's evening report.
Just saying what i have always said, the name of the game is the name of this blog...-:))

Mahalaxmi now heavy thundering and lightning and very light drizzle.

sset said...

Low over central Bay- will again create problems - travel west- MP,MAHA,GUJ and again UAC.... With this how can south india expect rain??? Entire south no clouds.

emkay said...

well said Rajesh, lot of interesting things in store atleast for a fortnight, with another pulse in the Bay, proabable NEM by 15th. Reg your blog readers it seems we have few young blood hot heads, good to see them being so keen on studying weather!!

GSB said...
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