Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday, 2nd October Morning:
BB7 has fizzled out before making landfall, off the AP coast...
An UAC at 850 hpa has formed embedded in the monsoon axis around North AP and adjoining Marathwada region.
The Arabian Sea UAC at 700 hpa remains off the Goa coast. Weak at the 850 hpa level...
An Upper Level trough joins the 2 systems..this is shown super imposed on the COLA chart thru the Orange shade.
BB7 has fizzled out before making landfall, off the AP coast...
An UAC at 850 hpa has formed embedded in the monsoon axis around North AP and adjoining Marathwada region.
The Arabian Sea UAC at 700 hpa remains off the Goa coast. Weak at the 850 hpa level...
An Upper Level trough joins the 2 systems..this is shown super imposed on the COLA chart thru the Orange shade.
52 comments:
After enjoying the clear visibility with blue sky and sunshine here in Badlapur, now weather turning misty & hazy and so visibility also got reduced and thunder heads are seen in NNW/ NE/ESE directions. So fingers are crossed and hoping for strengthing & building of Thunderstorm by evening ..
Now, from the far North to the far South, we are talking about a distance of almost 55 kms, and to the East another 55 kms. So, we are covering a big region. Thundery developments in these times are hit and miss. Like yesterday, the South was "hit' with 55 mms, and East was "hit" with around 60-70 mms, while the North was "miss" with lowest around 11 mms at vasia and Borivali. Now @ 3 pm, i see bigger developments in the North, with cloud tops reaching a height of 9 kms located north of Nalasopara. 6kms cloud height as yet in the East.
I think the "hits" will be in the North today....The "hits" should get around 40-50 mms and the "miss" around 15 mms. Today we may see very good developments also, but the intensity and rain rate will be marginally less, and in pockets or patches. But Vasai managed only 11 mms, so, for that region, it cannot be lower than yesterday.
Yesterday's rainfall: The rainfall in Mumbai South was 52 mms, and suburbs SCruz 37 mms. Mumbai avg was 45 mms for these 2 station.
Thane 48 mms, Kalyan 72 mms, Ulhasnagar 57 mms, Vasai 11mms and Panvel (unofficial ) 37 mms. Panvel till June end is 2189 mms.
Sky turning black here in Badlapur and thundering sound also coming from SE direction.. Now have to watching whether it coming towards Badlapur in NW direction or going straight to West over Matheran,Panvel belt..
thunder and lightning is seen towards the southern horizon at panvel,,,big droplets have started falling
From max temp 32 C now temp down to 29 C. Now just Thick drops falling here in Badlapur.
First thunder heard here at Juhu, the breeze has picked up. Looks like the thunderstorm activity will start much early today as compared to yesterday.
no rains yet in New Panvel, cloudy and just heard first distant thunder !! ( 4 PM )
What I was afraid of had happened same here . Thunderstorm from SE moved to SW of Badlapur. So moved in Matheran, Panvel line. Here just temporary SE breeze & 10mins thick droplets fallen. Now waiting for another system from NNE to arrive here.
thundering has started here at vasai, yesterday first storm was weak but second was average.lets see abt today wht is innstored .
prakash
can hear some thunder in between deonar region..thunderstorms expected???
as the thundercloud is very well developed then yesterday just waiting to see the front gust of the thunderstorm as the thundering has increased here in virar n vasai that means the storm is not far from us.may be another 45- 50 mins away
preeti.
@Junaid..IMD offical rain data arrived. Yesterday's Thunderstorm given Matheran 80mm, Panvel 70mm, Karjat 50mm rain.
agree with Rajesh, Panvel may be in miss region today with less precipitation expected. North side like Vasai may be in hit region.
rajesh sir i was abt to say the same thing the thunderstorm will be hit in these areas vasai , virar ,borivali , i feel that some of the eastern n western suburbs of mumbai will also experience more rains then yesterday.well fingers r crossed. lets see wht happens.
preeti
@abhijit thanx for the panvel data,,the thick drizzles dtopped now!! But the sky if very dark purple towards the south!!
atlast the front gust is visible of the thunderstorm cloud .quicker then i expected waiting for it to move ahead.wow that was really quick , here at vasai.its very dark at the moment.1036 agalde
@ juniad. SE Thunderstorm fizzled out now. It produced just thick drops for Badlapur, Panvel belt. Now look out for N/NE Direction as new storm might came from there only.
abhijit hope badlapur also gets another thunderstorm , here at vasai and towards mumbai there is a well developed thunderstorm cloud which will start perfroming anytime from now on.it has turned very dark alll throughout the journey,. its looks magnificant to travel in a car in the hills , observing these clouds all the way from vasai to mumbai.and now the rains will be here any moment.
thanks preeti
heavy showers have started here at vasai.
prakash
showers have stopped at vasai at the moment thundering has increased , looks like there is another storm building up in the north east direction.
prakash
@abhijit u r ryt SE side storm ,fizzled out nd gave only sum drizzly large droplets!!
moderate to heavy rain spell at borivali
oh yeah ..emkay hit n miss.hmmmm
again rains have started here at vasai .getting darker and thundering has increased.
looks like 50 mms rains forecast by rajesh for north of mumbai has gone flop.not even 10 mms.hmmmm
Atleast Until now Badlapur, Panvel are in "miss" category ! Just 10mins thick drops drizzled noticed at 3.30pm from SE .. Still I m hoping that some more thundery system should developed as we can expect activity generating till late night period !
abhijit there will be thunderstorm later in the night , as the humidity is rising slowly.also i can see third time thunderclouds popping up from the east.
the sky is looking dark blue between the clouds and also some clouds got yellowish colour, thats a clear indication of more rains to come. fingers crossed.
preeti
@ Anonymous. Yes I also seen that so still hoping activity generating by late night. BTW please mention your name in comment so that our conversation will easier with an identity..
looks like there will be no more thunderstorm today as the rains have stopped n sky has opened out . entire prediction was a big flop
What a vagaries of weather !! First thunder system developed at 3pm in SE horizon produced 10mins thick drops drizzles and fizzled out.. Then at 4pm North horizon hosted 2nd thunderstorm but it was just stationery & produced dark & windy weather and fizzled out at 6.30pm . Now at 7pm East horizon producing an thunderstorm..
satellite picture shows cloud covering increasing north - Mah,MP,Guj - this looks like progress of monsoon rather than withdrawl?
What is happening to south india? Banglore,Mysore.... still without rain?
Finally medium showers in Badlapur from 7pm onwards.. Atleast something better than nothing !
@abhijit,panvel is still dry!!! Humidity has incresed a lott!! Can panvelkars expect any thunderstorm or rain later in the night like yesterday???
new panvel received medium intensity rains for 10 mnts
@ Junaid. Might be ! As if now storm moved to Matheran now. If not fizzled out and moved west then Panvel chances increases..
Badlapur intensity reduced to drizzling now..
@abhijit its raining continuosly nowwid medium intensity
@ Junaid. Yo.. It seems Badlapur & Panvel are on same track !! Only difference is Panvel west side of Matheran range and Badlapur to east side of Matheran range..
thunderstorm is instored for maharashtra and konkan including mumbai around late night or early morning hours.
preeti
once again humidity has gone very high.
prakash
Badlapur received 5mm rain in last 1hr..now just drops falling..
what happened all predictions were wrong today ,about the thunderstorm .anymore predictions are left to be done.
thunderstorm will be approaching mumbai by late night
@all weather lovers
Interesting match is going on between IND and SA.Just watch the match and chill,forget about rain.
yes, 1 prediction is just made...the same anonymous who has been predicting rains for the last 3/4 days, like"heavy rains next week" and "2nd, 3rd 4th will get heavy thunderstorms" and "today will be as heavy as yesterday"..has now turned corner to save face..again as anonymous...the writer has been proved wrong so is saving face..all the time as anonymous..Ulta chor kotwal ko date....hahaha - chetan
Now medium rain here in Badlapur & no lightening & thundering from 8pm onwards.. just silent rain now.
thunderstorm is approaching very soon be prepared chetan
cool it guys...all forecasts are made in good faith. if confused, go to main blog forecast ..chetan
chetan the ultimate morone.dumm in weather knowledge.
Now Badlapur having again drizzles. But now very low level clouds gushing from East side. Also very misty & foggy now cannot see 3kms beyond lights also.. Temp constant at 25 C and no breeze at all from 7pm.
chill out guys watch the match ,stop criticizing eachother,forget the rain for a while.
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