Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday, 2nd October Morning:
BB7 has fizzled out before making landfall, off the AP coast...

An UAC at 850 hpa has formed embedded in the monsoon axis around North AP and adjoining Marathwada region. 
The Arabian Sea UAC at 700 hpa remains off the Goa coast. Weak at the 850 hpa level...
An Upper Level trough joins the 2 systems..this is shown super imposed on the COLA chart thru the Orange shade.



52 comments:

Abhijit Modak said...

After enjoying the clear visibility with blue sky and sunshine here in Badlapur, now weather turning misty & hazy and so visibility also got reduced and thunder heads are seen in NNW/ NE/ESE directions. So fingers are crossed and hoping for strengthing & building of Thunderstorm by evening ..

rajesh said...

Now, from the far North to the far South, we are talking about a distance of almost 55 kms, and to the East another 55 kms. So, we are covering a big region. Thundery developments in these times are hit and miss. Like yesterday, the South was "hit' with 55 mms, and East was "hit" with around 60-70 mms, while the North was "miss" with lowest around 11 mms at vasia and Borivali. Now @ 3 pm, i see bigger developments in the North, with cloud tops reaching a height of 9 kms located north of Nalasopara. 6kms cloud height as yet in the East.
I think the "hits" will be in the North today....The "hits" should get around 40-50 mms and the "miss" around 15 mms. Today we may see very good developments also, but the intensity and rain rate will be marginally less, and in pockets or patches. But Vasai managed only 11 mms, so, for that region, it cannot be lower than yesterday.

Yesterday's rainfall: The rainfall in Mumbai South was 52 mms, and suburbs SCruz 37 mms. Mumbai avg was 45 mms for these 2 station.

Thane 48 mms, Kalyan 72 mms, Ulhasnagar 57 mms, Vasai 11mms and Panvel (unofficial ) 37 mms. Panvel till June end is 2189 mms.

Abhijit Modak said...

Sky turning black here in Badlapur and thundering sound also coming from SE direction.. Now have to watching whether it coming towards Badlapur in NW direction or going straight to West over Matheran,Panvel belt..

junaid said...

thunder and lightning is seen towards the southern horizon at panvel,,,big droplets have started falling

Abhijit Modak said...

From max temp 32 C now temp down to 29 C. Now just Thick drops falling here in Badlapur.

NT said...

First thunder heard here at Juhu, the breeze has picked up. Looks like the thunderstorm activity will start much early today as compared to yesterday.

emkay said...

no rains yet in New Panvel, cloudy and just heard first distant thunder !! ( 4 PM )

Abhijit Modak said...

What I was afraid of had happened same here . Thunderstorm from SE moved to SW of Badlapur. So moved in Matheran, Panvel line. Here just temporary SE breeze & 10mins thick droplets fallen. Now waiting for another system from NNE to arrive here.

Anonymous said...

thundering has started here at vasai, yesterday first storm was weak but second was average.lets see abt today wht is innstored .


prakash

Ron said...

can hear some thunder in between deonar region..thunderstorms expected???

Anonymous said...

as the thundercloud is very well developed then yesterday just waiting to see the front gust of the thunderstorm as the thundering has increased here in virar n vasai that means the storm is not far from us.may be another 45- 50 mins away


preeti.

Abhijit Modak said...

@Junaid..IMD offical rain data arrived. Yesterday's Thunderstorm given Matheran 80mm, Panvel 70mm, Karjat 50mm rain.

emkay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
emkay said...

agree with Rajesh, Panvel may be in miss region today with less precipitation expected. North side like Vasai may be in hit region.

Anonymous said...

rajesh sir i was abt to say the same thing the thunderstorm will be hit in these areas vasai , virar ,borivali , i feel that some of the eastern n western suburbs of mumbai will also experience more rains then yesterday.well fingers r crossed. lets see wht happens.



preeti

junaid said...

@abhijit thanx for the panvel data,,the thick drizzles dtopped now!! But the sky if very dark purple towards the south!!

Anonymous said...

atlast the front gust is visible of the thunderstorm cloud .quicker then i expected waiting for it to move ahead.wow that was really quick , here at vasai.its very dark at the moment.1036 agalde

Abhijit Modak said...

@ juniad. SE Thunderstorm fizzled out now. It produced just thick drops for Badlapur, Panvel belt. Now look out for N/NE Direction as new storm might came from there only.

Anonymous said...

abhijit hope badlapur also gets another thunderstorm , here at vasai and towards mumbai there is a well developed thunderstorm cloud which will start perfroming anytime from now on.it has turned very dark alll throughout the journey,. its looks magnificant to travel in a car in the hills , observing these clouds all the way from vasai to mumbai.and now the rains will be here any moment.

thanks preeti

Anonymous said...

heavy showers have started here at vasai.



prakash

Anonymous said...

showers have stopped at vasai at the moment thundering has increased , looks like there is another storm building up in the north east direction.


prakash

junaid said...

@abhijit u r ryt SE side storm ,fizzled out nd gave only sum drizzly large droplets!!

tejas said...

moderate to heavy rain spell at borivali

Anonymous said...

oh yeah ..emkay hit n miss.hmmmm

Anonymous said...

again rains have started here at vasai .getting darker and thundering has increased.

Anonymous said...

looks like 50 mms rains forecast by rajesh for north of mumbai has gone flop.not even 10 mms.hmmmm

Abhijit Modak said...

Atleast Until now Badlapur, Panvel are in "miss" category ! Just 10mins thick drops drizzled noticed at 3.30pm from SE .. Still I m hoping that some more thundery system should developed as we can expect activity generating till late night period !

Anonymous said...

abhijit there will be thunderstorm later in the night , as the humidity is rising slowly.also i can see third time thunderclouds popping up from the east.

Anonymous said...

the sky is looking dark blue between the clouds and also some clouds got yellowish colour, thats a clear indication of more rains to come. fingers crossed.

preeti

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Anonymous. Yes I also seen that so still hoping activity generating by late night. BTW please mention your name in comment so that our conversation will easier with an identity..

Anonymous said...

looks like there will be no more thunderstorm today as the rains have stopped n sky has opened out . entire prediction was a big flop

Abhijit Modak said...

What a vagaries of weather !! First thunder system developed at 3pm in SE horizon produced 10mins thick drops drizzles and fizzled out.. Then at 4pm North horizon hosted 2nd thunderstorm but it was just stationery & produced dark & windy weather and fizzled out at 6.30pm . Now at 7pm East horizon producing an thunderstorm..

sset said...

satellite picture shows cloud covering increasing north - Mah,MP,Guj - this looks like progress of monsoon rather than withdrawl?
What is happening to south india? Banglore,Mysore.... still without rain?

Abhijit Modak said...

Finally medium showers in Badlapur from 7pm onwards.. Atleast something better than nothing !

junaid said...

@abhijit,panvel is still dry!!! Humidity has incresed a lott!! Can panvelkars expect any thunderstorm or rain later in the night like yesterday???

junaid said...

new panvel received medium intensity rains for 10 mnts

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Junaid. Might be ! As if now storm moved to Matheran now. If not fizzled out and moved west then Panvel chances increases..

Badlapur intensity reduced to drizzling now..

junaid said...

@abhijit its raining continuosly nowwid medium intensity

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Junaid. Yo.. It seems Badlapur & Panvel are on same track !! Only difference is Panvel west side of Matheran range and Badlapur to east side of Matheran range..

Anonymous said...

thunderstorm is instored for maharashtra and konkan including mumbai around late night or early morning hours.


preeti

Anonymous said...

once again humidity has gone very high.

prakash

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur received 5mm rain in last 1hr..now just drops falling..

Anonymous said...

what happened all predictions were wrong today ,about the thunderstorm .anymore predictions are left to be done.

Anonymous said...

thunderstorm will be approaching mumbai by late night

Anonymous said...

@all weather lovers
Interesting match is going on between IND and SA.Just watch the match and chill,forget about rain.

Anonymous said...

yes, 1 prediction is just made...the same anonymous who has been predicting rains for the last 3/4 days, like"heavy rains next week" and "2nd, 3rd 4th will get heavy thunderstorms" and "today will be as heavy as yesterday"..has now turned corner to save face..again as anonymous...the writer has been proved wrong so is saving face..all the time as anonymous..Ulta chor kotwal ko date....hahaha - chetan

Abhijit Modak said...

Now medium rain here in Badlapur & no lightening & thundering from 8pm onwards.. just silent rain now.

Anonymous said...

thunderstorm is approaching very soon be prepared chetan

Anonymous said...

cool it guys...all forecasts are made in good faith. if confused, go to main blog forecast ..chetan

Anonymous said...

chetan the ultimate morone.dumm in weather knowledge.

Abhijit Modak said...

Now Badlapur having again drizzles. But now very low level clouds gushing from East side. Also very misty & foggy now cannot see 3kms beyond lights also.. Temp constant at 25 C and no breeze at all from 7pm.

Anonymous said...

chill out guys watch the match ,stop criticizing eachother,forget the rain for a while.