Sunday, October 07, 2012

Rainfall Sunday till 8.30pm: Mumbai Scruz 32 mms, Colaba 10 mms, vagaries 11 mms and Thane,11 mms.
Low over West coast moves North as on Sunday evening, as seen here, and expected to weaken very rapidly now.

Updated 1 pm Sunday:
Latest Charts confirm UAC at 925hpa now half in the Sea with centre around Alibag...likely initial movement NW as a (temporary)low..
Sunday Mumbai City thundershower rainfall changed to 30-35 mms ..and outer townships too get heavy thunder spells...

Sunday Morning @ 9.15am:

As mentioned in our Friday Report, a Low has formed in Central Bay, and is situated at 18N ,90E.
Also, the other predicted UAC along the west coast has also taken shape, and is situated close to South of Mumbai at 17N and 73 E. I feel, our prediction of Low formation can take shape, as this UAC is at a lower level of 925 hpa....
as cautioned, Mumbai monsoon behavior will now depend on the whims of this system..watch it carefully .!! 

32 mms till 8.30 am sunday at Scruz and Colaba...vagaries 29 mms.

50 comments:

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. That Means South Mumbai got another round of Thunderstorm after 12am !! Because till 12am it was just 2mm know !

And UAC formation of SW of Mumbai coast in overnight time has produced this another 30mm spell know !

Sir also provide if Panvel , Thane & Kalyan rain data is available with you. As today holiday online figures not available ! And IMD might update it after 3pm..

NT said...

@Abhijit, Rajeshbhai, Juhu recieved intermittent rain / thunder showers till early hours. I was out until about 2:00 AM and could see intermittent drizzle / light rain and the occassional flash of lightning.

I was just checking the COLA charts some time back, the COLA 850 mb chart at 00z today shows the UAC still over South Madhya Maharashtra, moving West and then fading away by Tuesday. Also, they have now toned down their forecast of rains for Mumbai, the higher intensity rains have been forecasted for Central Konkan region.

Abhijit said...

Yesterday Badlapur had Nil rain. And today from morning it's foggy and misty and cloudy with breezy from north and current temp is 30 C. It's 1pm now then also foggy & misty continues. Snap on Vagaries FB .

emkay said...

weather absolutely still at this point of time in Panvel, last half an hour sky has become hazy, not dark clouds yet.

emkay said...

its getting darker in Panvel

sset said...

Maharashtra is only livable,pleasant place with assured rains!!!! (JUNE - NOV)New UAC will stay for another 10days???
Central India,GUJ/RAJ okay.

But I think in future years to come, much of interior south peninsular India will be in path of desertification. Hot spots being interior KAR, entire TN (NEM high on failure probability, Rayalseema). If we see even KERALA is receiving less rains now. Today TN records highest temperature of 43 degrees (like may month agninakshatrum).

emkay said...

sudden turn of events, became sunny fr an hour but in 5 mts just now eastern sky is dark and thundering with winds !! at New Panvel

Junaid said...

rains have started in panvel,,its thundering a lott!! Weather has turned very squally

Abhijit said...

Some Rain data of today 8.30am on 07-10-2012.

Thane District

JAWAHAR 110mm
TALASARI 60mm
MURBAD 50mm
VIKRAMGADH 40mm
KALYAN 30mm
WADA ,THANE 20mm
DAHANU 10mm

To WNW of Badlapur is Kalyan got 30mm & NE of Badlapur is Murbad got 50mm. But Badlapur no Rain !!

Raigad District

ALIBAG 30mm
No rain data for Panvel from IMD ?

Junaid said...

@emkay enjoy the rains!!! Check out the winds they r very squally nd matheran side is almost invisible due to low visibility,,its currently raining very heavily wid gale force winds,,,just now my eardrums were on the verge of cracking ,,such loud thundering is happening now

Abhijit said...

@ Juniad @ emkay .. Enjoy it again!!

Again for 2nd consecutive day Badlapur is bypassed until now !! Here it's just dark and thundering in South over Matheran range..

Junaid said...

@abhijit, was very curious to get the data for panvel,,btw very heavy spell of rain has started here at panvel wid ear cracking thunder ,,in the start it was very very squally as the grey cloud line covered the western horizo,,but now its raining heavily wid mild winds!!
@rajesh,,,plz try to get the panvel figure of yest.

Junaid said...

@emkay,,most probably u myt be knwing of valcale tembhore!! A small mountain toward the eastern side wich used to be a picnic spot,,the rains spell was so heavy nd intense that huge streams of water is slowing frm tht place,,i ll try to take a pic nd post it on vagariesfb page

Junaid said...

btw panvel has had 7 rainy days for the month of october ( if we take a rainy day wid minimum 1 mm reqrtmtnt)

Junaid said...

@abhijit inspite of panvel receiving 6 cm +rain according to my approximation thrs no name of it in imd mumbai !! Sad

Abhijit said...

@ Junaid. Badlapur had 5 rainy days from 1st October to 5 October. But yesterday totally 0mm & today until now also nil !!

emkay said...

the hill u r mentioning is the one supplying rainwater in canal in front of ur gate !! its just across the expressway from mu house and i can see the water cascading

Junaid said...

yeah emkay u r ryt!! Enjoy the rains!:)i used to go thr wid frnds to enjoy the waterfalll,,but due to stone quarrying tht spot is closed now

Abhijit said...

@ Junaid Just 20kms away in same NE direction Badlapur is located !! That is in same angle or frame of your photo clicking !! But we in Badlapur is totally dry since yesterday !!

GSB said...

The Panvel - Thane axis working again!!! Rains have started in Thane here at Godhbuder road 15 minutes back. Very little thunder though. Moderate rainfall at present unlike yesterday.

Junaid said...

@GSB ,here at panvel rains were heavy both days,but today it was very stormy wid squally winds nd deafening thunder!!not sure weder todays figure also imd will givor not!

Ramesh said...

Raining for the past 10 mts in santacruz west.no thunder feels like monsoon showers and not like the thunderstorm of past few days

paulodon said...

damp squib... just 10 mins of pleasant rain in thane .. hardly any thunder........

emkay said...

@junaid seems the rains broke the axle of a Zen car in front of ur bldg, lying with skewed right type rite near divider. Thats a dangerous pothole there, once took a hard hit there

Junaid said...

it was drizzling nd raining lightly for the past half nd hour,but 10 mnts bak heavy spell started,,nd poured for 10 mnts!!
@emkay yeah near the chiken wala that pothole is very dangerous,,sum 4 days bak they wer filling tht road,but thn it was a washout!
@rajesh nd emkay,,,anyone knw how to contact the panvel weather office,,coz m eager to knw yest figure wich they dnt updated

Abhijit said...

@ Junaid. wow Panvelkar are really enjoying the rain treats !! Here still no drop in Badlapur. Again 30mins back just lightening & bit thundering sound from south horizon that is from matheran end !!

rajesh said...

junaid: tried a lot to get the accurate and correct panvel rain figure. Made many calls to known sources and friends.
Result: Navi Mumbai 27 mms (confirmed)
Panvel 47 mms (i am not confirming this given figure) could be near about, though fig given by same source alst time was ok

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. It's very irritating to see in radar and also by watching at skies that multiple thunder heads are developing but here in Badlapur just lightening & thundering only with dense cloud cover also !! But rain just 5-10kms off Badlapur in all directions of sky!!

So what could be the reason that many thunder activities are developing back to back within few hours but all bypassing with actually so near that it feels it can pour anytime but still far away from Badlapur !! Same from past 2days !!

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Yes yesterday you had given me an explanation but still I watched radar and see storming forming near Badlapur but pouring after reaching to Panvel, Navi Mumbai, Thane & Ghatkopar belt !!

Now also 3rd thunder formation seen in radar near Murbad but now siding Badlapur here and going towards Bhivandi, Thane side !!

Abhijit said...

Now for example. One of mine friend traveling from Thane to Pune Belt today started at 6pm.. He said right from Thane to Lonavala belt is full wet either rain is fallen already or at same place it is going on also.. So in short whole 90kms patch from Thane to Lonavala is under rain cover !! Same in North of Badlapur also..So such wide spread rain are occuring but here we are missing it !!

So just wanted to know meteorological (technical)way that whether any local factors are opposing to precipitate here !!

Tejas Baxi said...

At borivali suddenly one loud and long thunder heard!! there is no rain or wind since 5.30pm at borivali!!

paulodon said...

while at a constant dbz strength in the doppler radara panvel gets squall and thunder and by the time it travels to thane its just a whimper.... wondering while it dissipates on the way how can the dbz remain constant.....Rajesh, your call..:)

Abhijit said...

@ Tejas. As I said in previous comment that new thunder head developed near Murbad.. So it traveled west covered shahapur, then, bhiwandi and now over Vasai - Virar region. May reach Borivali too ! In Badlapur also one hour back was loud thundery but again bypassed !!

sam khan said...

very heavy rains here at vasai , very windy n stormy at the moment.

Tejas Baxi said...

there is no wind and no rain at borivali right now.(9.33).. no loud thunder after "that" one. also my sister says that she saw lightning in the southern sky before that loud thunder. also the mumbai airport is showing thunder since last 2-3 hours..

sam khan said...

rains have stopped here at vasai, weather has turned cool n pleasant.

rajesh said...

paulodon:Cannot explain this doppler ,but between the Panvel location and Thane location on the doppler, there are many "permanent" disturbances which could be adding false colour to the actual...

Abhijit: i explained, it is a matter of local thermals and down wind draft from th thunderclouds..

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you. Now have to study on thermal & down wind drafts.. So in short our area's earth surface is not heating up to that extent to produce an localized rain ! Or heating but no proper down wind draft here !

Abhijit said...

Today Morning Badlapur was having Thick blanket of fog covered visibility was reduced till 500meters. So Min temp was 23.5 C.

Last 2days Badlapur had absolutely Dry Thunderstorm !! So today at least hoping for Thunderstorm with Rains.. And I think today might be an last day of Thunder formation over North Konkan region !! Then Monsoon 2012 finally withdrawing !

sam khan said...

Absolutely right abhijit , today should be the last thunderstorm of 2012 SWM season for north konkan. adieus amigo.we had a long enjoyable blasting october farewell. need to wait and see wht will be the october total rain figure.for mumbai and outer township.

Arpit Sharma said...

Sir,when the monsoon has withdrawn from rajasthan then still places like udaipur,churu,bikaner etc receiving rain.How is this possible?

sam khan said...

rajesh sir, looks like santacruz(mumbai) has been getting its share from the thunderstorms(retreating monsoon), almost all 7 days(with 2 storms in a day).unlike other parts in mumbai city.lets see what the last storm of the season will be like.if its so.

rajesh said...

Arprit: The Rajasthan region experinced light clouding, very light (not monsoonish) last 36 hrs.

This was due to some negligible moisture moving North from the Low in the Arabian Sea thru Gujarat. But, i did not see any rainfall recorded except for 1 mm at Jodhpur airport on 6th.
Even otherwise, Arprit, even if some rain does get recorded in post monsoon times, it is not from regular monsoon systems and winds. You can understand rains from a system from bay or some monsoon formation.
But rain from WD in October is also possible, so they are not monsoon rains.Winds have changed totally in the regions.

Hope it clarifies your doubt, or be free to ask, I'll try my best to explain to the best of my knowledge.

Arpit Sharma said...

Yes sir but according to the report there is no WD in the region and yesterday churu recorded 1.5mm and bikaner had traces.If this is WD then atleast some of the places should get rain but the whole region was dry.

rajesh said...

Arprit: The current light rain i explained was due to small amount moisture from the Arabian Sea low...NOT for WD..
sometimes ,not in this case, sometimes rain can also come from WD..general statement..

sset said...

October rains
Pune - 120mm - 150mm (enjoyed maximum) total 600+150 = 700mm of rain (3 times Bangalore rain!!!!)

Mumbai - 100mm -200mm (total 2500mm) But Matheran/thane/Badlapur areas would have received more in range 3000mm - 3500mm.

Ironically entire october Augumbe/Valparai/Kerala was totall dry -> 0mm

In short Maharashtra had its day out!!! While TN still reels under heat wave???

Can we have wettest places now?

Arpit Sharma said...

Thnx sir:)

sam khan said...

sset your figures are all wrong regarding rains. plz put the right one .if u can.

Vijayanand said...

SSET ,
Sir, your numbers are totally out of place with stats from all other source. Kindly share your source.

sset said...

vijay - from IMD site, region centers -> chennai -> observations -> we can find southern regions.

Figures are approximate, few deviations will be present. Exact values Pradeep/GSB can publish.

As of october 7th south did not receive measurable rains compared to MAHA.