Thursday, October 11, 2012


In spite of being indisposed, Pradeep has sent us this list..Thanks Pradeep from all of us and get well soon !

Toppers in Maharashtra -(1st June to 30th September) 
Kitwade - 6263 
Dajipur - 6083 
Amboli - 6055
Gaganbawda - 5402
Mahabaleshwar - 5235
Patgaon - 5214
Sangameshwar - 5201
Mulshi - 5151
Kasari - 5090

Ghat section will provide today



Conditions for Monsoon withdrawal are in place for the areas as marked in Blue, and Vagaries withdraws SWM from this Blue region (as per Old Map reproduced again for easy reference)...and collaborating with the IMD sat image of Thursday evening. 

IMD will withdraw the Monsoon from these regions after 3 days, as per their rainfall parameters..





Mumbai Lakes Storage Position as on 10th October 2012: On Mumbai Page for those Interested..

Mumbai Region Rainfall till End September and from 1st October to 11th October For:

Mumbai Scruz:    1867 mms  and 168 mms.
Mumbai Colaba:  1434 mms  and 124 mms
Thane:                   2337 mms and 122 mms
Panvel:                 2196 mms and 178 mms. 
Vasai:                   1553 mms and 23 mms.
Matheran:            3379 mms and 168 mms.  
Pune:                     377 mms  and 119 mms. 

Maximum rainfall in October (till 11th) in Maharashtra is Sangameshwar 673 mms

Mumbai City: Clear skies with day temperatures rising to 34/35c. Nights till mid October will hover around 23/24c (Scruz), with the day possibly touching 36c on the odd day.
Daytime humidity can fall to 35% next 3/4 days.

Outer Townships (around Mumbai)  will be warm in the day, 34/35c and night will be around 22c till mid October.
Pune and Nasik drop to 15/16c after 18th.

UAC over the Southern tip of the Indian Peninsula has moved over Kerala and adjoining TN, causing good precipitation over Kerala on Thursday itself.

A WD,  O-1,  with extended trough will cross eastwards from Pakistan thru Northern India from the 16th October. Rains will be moderate in Extreme North Pakistan. 
On the 16th and 17th of October, Northern Indian states of Kashmir and HP will get some rains, with snow in the medium ranges. (Gulmarg/Pahalgam may get first snowfall).
Both Punjabs will get light rains on the 16th October. 

Cloudy weather in Delhi on 16th and 17th.the nights will drop to below 15c in the NCR after the 18th of October, once the cloudiness clears.

As the Southern UAC weakens, we see a change of wind direction to NE over Chennai region from 15th/16th October. 
The final withdrawal of SWM from Southern most India, and the NEM setting, may happen between 16th and 20th October.



32 comments:

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Also publish Matheran Hill station rain figures from 1st June to 30th Sept 2012 period which is normal SWM period. And also if figures available from 1st Oct till 11 Oct 2012 period.

Abhijit said...

Some winter experience started to feel over some part of Maharashtra now . Today min temp of Nashik was 17 C and Amravati was also at 17 C today morning. Pune was 20 C.

GSB said...

Junaid/Abhijit/Rajesh sir,

Thane temperature even now at 10pm hovering around 29-30 C. Yesterday around this time was lower at about 27-28 C. Probably due to the after effects of the thundershower. Today is the first day when no visible signs of any clouds that might cause rain atleast till the evening. Additionally wild swing seen in the humidity levels also.

Abhijit said...

Today after 8pm in Badlapur some chill or cool weather is felt.

There is no wind or breeze but some chill coming from north direction. What exact word is there for that I don't know ! But when we stand on terrace some cool/chill can be felt.. So whether and indication of winter are setting in !! Now have to see in morning how much further dip in temp is noted here ! Already 24.5 C at moment here.

Abhijit said...

@ GSB. But Badlapur is cool at moment as very clear skies now. So current temp is 24.5 C here

Junaid said...

@GSB nd Abhijit,,,,weather in panvel has turned cool,,but ther was considerable flip flop in humidity levels!finally guys our favorite season is over,,GSB luking forward to ur poem on the dry october heat!!
@rajesh ,the panvel figure for the month of october is flawed as one day of 8-9 cm figure went unaccounted!:(


Junaid said...

@GSB nd Abhijit,,,,weather in panvel has turned cool,,but ther was considerable flip flop in humidity levels!finally guys our favorite season is over,,GSB luking forward to ur poem on the dry october heat!!
@rajesh ,the panvel figure for the month of october is flawed as one day of 8-9 cm figure went unaccounted!:(

Junaid said...

@GSB nd Abhijit ,,finally our favourite season comes to an end!!GSB luking forward for a poem on the oct heat:)
@rajesh ,,in the oct figure of panvel one 8-9 cm figure went accounted:(

GSB said...

Abhijit, maybe 'nippy' is the word you were trying to use..

Junaid, if the October nighttime temperature touches 32/33 with a humidity of more than 80% and maybe with the AC off I might just write one ...by the way that was my first attemp at poetry ... thanks to VAGARIES... LOL !!

Junaid said...

sangameshwar got 67 cm during 11 days of oct wich pune dnt manage to get in the entire swm!!an irony indeed!

Junaid said...

sangameshwar got 67 cm during 11 days of oct wich pune dnt manage to get in the entire swm!!an irony indeed!

Abhijit said...

Today Badlapur noticed dip in min temp. So experienced first chilly day of this winter season. Today min temp is 21 C here in Badlapur. Yesterday it was 24 C . So today drop by 3 C. So as soon as monsoon withdraws drop in min temp noticed.

Abhijit said...

Today its very deep blue sky and no fog at all. So clear visibility too here in Badlapur.

Abhijit said...

Pune's min temp also drop today. 17.5 C temp of today morning

Vijayanand said...

Even in a poor monsoon year, mumbai rains around 200 cms. Wow! thats cool.
Hope to god next year is even better.

sam khan said...

Even in weak monsoon mumbai crossed 2000mm mark in (santacruz), thats really good .next years monsoon i hope is really good.crosses 3000mm .

sam khan said...

Sangameshwars 1 weeks rains are more then delhi's entire 4 months rains.

GSB said...

Abhijit, the temp low was 23.5 c at Thane at 6.30am today morning. Now it is at 32.5 c a jump of 9 c in five hours !! The humidity too has fallen in the same period from 80% to 50%. Wild swings indeed as soon as the monsoon is over !!

rajesh said...

This to inform readers, that though our friend Pradeep is indisposed, he has very kindly agreed to various requests from vagaries readers to prepare the toppers from Maharashtra, at least..he has personally informed me of this, and has promised to get the toppers ready by Friday afternoon.
The Amboli figure is missing, and i am helping out to get that for him.
Vagaries wishes him a speedy recovery and best of health...we all send him a "get well" message..

rajesh said...

Mumbai at 12 noon: scuz 34c, humidity 36% wind E. vagaries 33.6c, humidity 51%...we had mentioned yesterday the "odd day" before mid October will rise to 36c....is the "odd day" today itself ?

rajesh said...

waiting for the sea breeze..

Vijayanand said...

Eerie weather in bangalore. Its dark and windless. Typical october weather. North TN, North Interior TN and South Interior Karnataka is in for deluge today.

NT said...

@GSB, in low humidity conditions you will typically see large temperature swings (assuming neutral weather conditions) - you would have read that in Deserts (very low humidity) the days can be blazing hot - touching 45 degrees celcius but nights can be chilly dropping to freezing temperatures, a massive swing.

@Pradeep, I echo Rajeshbhai's comments, wishing you a speedy recovery.

sam khan said...

hey pradeep get well soon

Junaid said...

Pradeep get well soon,,wish u a speedy recovery!!

rajesh said...

IMD echos vagaries' WD and Monsoon withdrawal, announcing in Fridays evening report..

Arpit Sharma said...

Now the weather in Delhi-NCR is cooling down a bit.Maximum in 32-34c range and low in 18-19c range.Eagerly looking for the upcoming WD but i know it won't pour over Delhi-NCR.

Viravanalluran said...

Dear Shri. Rajesh,
Hats off. Even IMD is also recognizing you. Here in south [at least among weather enthusiasts]you have become an icon. Congrats.

Further when interacted with eminent meteorologist here I was given to understand that the deficiency in South TN is due to SWM wind concentration only on and above PBL level i.e above 2000m. They are of the opinion that VSCS "THANE" was a indicator or precursor for this SWM2012.

This idea I want to share with you.

sam khan said...

CHANCES ARE VERY LESS FOR THE RAINS IN DELHI AT THE MOMENT AT COMING FEW DAYS

sset said...

May be myself incorrect. Looks like many top slots as published by Rajesh/Pradeep Sir are from MAHARASHTRA. KOLHAPUR districts comes with surprise. This may be due to Madhya MAHA receiving heavy rains in latter half.

Bangalore oct- NO RAIN. Like MAHA does KAR receive re-treating monsoon thunders.

sset said...

All MAHA heavy weights are in short of approx 1000mm - for 8000mm as happened during 2011.

sset said...

Not sure if anyone else has noticed.
Southern Indian ocean is showing a clockwise swirl. Cyclonic depression? This may be bad for water starved TN/KAR.If it goes west hitting OMAN/SAUDI. This peculiar pattern was noticed last year also multiple occassions.

If this is correct then,
recent trends in monsoon current changes:
1. South India - decreasing rains. Worst spots being south east interior India.
2. Central India-MAHA,GUJ,RAJ increasing rains.
3. NEM currents moving as depressions over Saudi- drought for TN.