AS-1: Postion as at 0900Z Sunday. As a low pressure, moves West ,1008 mb, lying at 9.6N and 72.4E, in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast.
System likely to be heavily resisted by the Arabian Sea ridge and shear will not allow it to move Northwards nor deepen.
As previously explained in earlier vagaries articles, as any system dissipates, we see clouds "bloating" around the west coast.
Moisture from the system, next 2 days will keep the precipitating rains along the Kerala, Karnataka and South Konkan coasts with heavy rains along Kerala, and light rains in South Konkan. South Interior Mah gets moderate rains with thunder Sunday thru Wednesday.
Mumbai City: (Same as yesterdays) More heat and stuffy weather for Mumbai:
Saturday 20th: Hot and warm with the day around 34/35c. High clouding drifting in around late afternoon/evening. Resulting in a stuffy and warm night, rising the night temperatures to 25c.
Sunday 21st/Monday 22nd: Partly cloudy, with alto cumulus clouds and strato cumulus patches. May receive light drizzles in some parts on Sunday. Day temperatures around 32c and night 25/26c.
Similar weather for the outer townships around Mumbai on the mainland.
Saturday 20th: Warm with east winds bringing in some clouding.
Sunday 21st: Cloudy with light drizzles in some parts. Light rains persisiting on Monday with cloudy day. Thundery conditions likely on Monday night and Tuesday getting rains.
Pune maintained Vagaries' estimate by reaching 14.8c on Saturday morning (estimate 15/16c).
Meanwhile, rains decrease in TN from Tuesday, 23rd.
What we have to watch out for now is the new low developing in the Bay around the Andaman Islands.
Low forms around the 25th October, and could move NW.
The ideal conditions present in the Bay could deepen the system into a cyclone. Steering path could be NW, and cyclone could hit the East coast between Orissa and TN coast around 30th October....more of it as it progresses...
To accomodtae and keep all information and figures "handy" and easily available, a new page "Stats and Analysis" has been created on Vagaries. Contributions to this Page most welcome !
GSB's analysis and Pradeep's September Toppers on the new page....please go thru these fantastic contributions by both...
Also check graph analysis on Vagaries' Reading Page..