Saturday, October 20, 2012


AS-1: Postion as at 0900Z Sunday. As a low pressure, moves West ,1008 mb, lying at 9.6N and 72.4E, in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. 

System likely to be heavily resisted by the Arabian Sea ridge and shear will not allow it to move Northwards nor deepen. 

As  previously explained in earlier vagaries articles, as any system dissipates, we see clouds "bloating" around the west coast. 
Moisture from the system, next 2 days  will keep the precipitating rains along the Kerala, Karnataka and South Konkan coasts with heavy rains along Kerala, and light rains in South Konkan. South Interior Mah gets moderate rains with thunder Sunday thru Wednesday.


Mumbai City(Same as yesterdays) More heat and stuffy weather for Mumbai:
Saturday 20th: Hot and warm with the day around 34/35c. High clouding drifting in around late afternoon/evening. Resulting in a stuffy and warm night, rising the night temperatures to 25c.
Sunday 21st/Monday 22nd: Partly cloudy, with alto cumulus clouds and strato cumulus patches. May receive light drizzles in some parts on Sunday. Day temperatures around 32c and night 25/26c.
Similar weather for the outer townships around Mumbai on the mainland.

Pune: 
Saturday 20th: Warm with east winds bringing in some clouding.
Sunday 21st: Cloudy with light drizzles in some parts. Light rains persisiting on Monday with cloudy day. Thundery conditions likely on Monday night and Tuesday getting rains.
Pune maintained Vagaries' estimate by reaching 14.8c on Saturday morning (estimate 15/16c).

Meanwhile, rains decrease in TN from Tuesday, 23rd.

What we have to watch out for now is the new low developing in the Bay around the Andaman Islands. 
Low forms around the 25th October, and could move NW. 
The ideal conditions present in the Bay could deepen the system into a cyclone. Steering path could be NW, and cyclone could hit the East coast between Orissa and TN coast around 30th October....more of it as it progresses...





To accomodtae and keep all information and figures "handy" and easily available, a new page "Stats and Analysis" has been created on Vagaries. Contributions to this Page most welcome !

GSB's analysis and  Pradeep's September Toppers on the new page....please go thru these fantastic contributions by both... 


Also check graph analysis on Vagaries' Reading Page..



27 comments:

Arpit Sharma said...

IMD showing light rain for Delhi-NCR on 21oct.Any chances rajesh sir?

sset said...

Similar trajectory was observed 2011 NEM monsoon, low over Indian Ocean translated into cycloned over Oman/Saudi - multiple times. This resulted in less rains over TN. It is unusual since change like this is observed last 1 year.

We need lows to come over India for any good rains - used to happen earlier years.

Thanks

sset said...

It seems Maharashtra SWM 2012 - phase2? More likely to hit Saudi.

Wish low would have entered TN/AP into KA. We need fast rains before season ends.

Rajesh sir - what are your comments?

keaweather said...

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Please do visit and share your views regarding Bangalore weather

Ron said...

hello sir, cnn ibn just showed a vid of heavy snowfall in gulmarg...isn't it a bit early?

rajesh said...

Arpit: No, i dont see rain on Sunday..shall maintian Delhi forecast put up on Friday.
sset: System already in Arabian Sea, and will weaken fast..check latest blog.
Last year, 2011, there were 4 systems in the Arabian sea in oct. AS-1, AS-2, AS-3 and As-4.

Ron: Snow was initially put up as forecast in Gulmarg in vagaries on 14th October for 16th Oct. Subsequently, vagaries published the snowfall on 16th/17th on date.
No, its not at all early, in fact normal snow is missing in HP..refer to vagaries FB, where a similar query was put up today by Rajan.

Abhijit said...

Even being of cloudy morning it was pleasent weather in night/morning period here in Badlapur . So today morning min temp was 21. 5 C here .

Abhijit said...

As per satellite image now more than 90% of Maharashtra is under cloud cover. And also some light drizzles going on at moment in some part of Pune city .

sset said...

Exactly correct Rajesh - strange part is NEM usually gets Bay with lows/depressions but last year it was AS which was hosting them origin point being Indian Ocean.

http://pakistanweatherportal.com/2011/10/31/cyclone-keila-roars-in-the-arabian-sea-special-coverage/

Bangalore rain - 1mm (cloudy but absolutely no rain - very bad - we all waited for torrentials)

sset said...


Rajesh Sir, earlier blogs you mentioned about cloud seeding - NOT major benefit. True to this... Temple town Tirupathi - Venkateshwara (Rayalseema dist) facing acute water shortage - with Dussera people rush problems.

4.9 crore spent, but no rain in Cauvery basin.

BANGALORE: The state government began cloud seeding operations on Friday in the Cauvery basin region, but the efforts have failed to induce rains. The government has spent Rs 4.9 crore in these two days and cloud seeding was done by Hyderabad based Agni Aviation.

Keeping Mysore as the base station, cloud seeding was done near Harangi and Kabini reservoirs on Friday and at Hemavathi and Krishnaraja Sagar dams on Saturday. Cloud seeding was one of the options explored by the state government to face any resultant water crisis in the wake of the Supreme Court order to release Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu.

Cloud seeding is the process of spreading either dry ice, or more commonly, silver iodide aerosols, into the upper part of clouds to try to stimulate precipitation process and form rain. Since rainfall starts through the growth of ice crystals from super-cooled cloud droplets in the upper parts of clouds, the silver iodide particles encourage the growth of new ice particles.

rajesh said...

akshay reports of light drizzles in Nagpur on Sunday morning..

Abhijit said...

What a rise in min temp of Pune due to
cloud cover.. Yesterday min temp of Pune
was 14.8 C. And today raised by 5 C.. Today
min temp of Pune is 20. 1 C. And 0.1mm
rain recorded till 8.30am. Actually drizzles
started after 8.15am here in Pune.

Puneet Bangera said...

Very GUSTY windy blowing here in dombivli.Winds mainly coming from E/NE direction.Now the sky is partly cloudy.Hoping for the rains coming in this week.

Junaid said...

sudden drastic change of weather at panvel,,the east winds are blowing in full force even gusty at tyms,,,nd the stratus clouds have matured nd thickened wid greyness in between,,the day has become cool,,a welcome releif frm the 36+ dry heat wich navi mumbai was experiencing these days:):)

Abhijit said...

Badlapur having max temp of 31 C at moment. With bit windy from SE direction and is overcast also. And Badlapur too had drops fallen in early morning period today.

Just now reached home so visited terrace and saw all the dish of DTH TV and noticed that dust on dish has rain drops mark left on it. So that is enough to point out that drops were fallen.

As last rain in Badlapur was fallen on 10/10/2012 then all dust particles were gathered on dish.

sset said...

Bangalore no rain. Just like SWM failure, NEM too eludes. Strange part UAC over TN/Sri Lanka vanished in just 1 day!!! NOT GOOD FOR SOUTH. Usually uacs persists for week to 10days to give bounty rains - just like recent Maharashtra oct rains and Rajisthan september rains.

Abhijit said...

Due to an overcast sky it's getting darker early today.

Arpit Sharma said...

Hazy weather today in Ghaziabad with dim sunlight.Maximum around 30-31c.

Arpit Sharma said...

Hindon is coolest in Delhi-NCR today with min 15.6c and its nearer to my house along with Indirapuram.

emkay said...

heard it rained near Gateway of India !!

JEREMIAH RAJANESAN said...

10.45 pm.A gigantic multicell squall line working its way from NE across the plains of Tirunelveli now.

rajesh said...

light drizzles in South Mumbai and very light drops around Haji Ali area...vagaries light drizzle, max 31.9c...see vagaries readings page for details.

Thunderstorm clouds scattered West and SW of Chennai...Rains decrease from Tuesday as mentioned...

rajesh said...

Neyoor, Kanyakumari District,TN, recieved 467 mms from 8.30am-5.30pm Sunday....Is it correct..any confirmations ??

Abhijit said...

Due to an overcast conditions min temp have raised in Badlapur. So today's min temp is 24 C here.

Abhijit said...

Due to an overcast conditions min temp have raised in Badlapur. So today's min temp is 24 C here.

Arpit Sharma said...

Today gurgaon recorded 13.9c followed by 14.1c at hindon.Today max temp might be around 29c.

sset said...

Rajesh Sir - Looks like depression over AS is intensifying and likely to hit Oman/Muscat/Saudi - just like 2011 NEM. Bad for South India (it was our quota had it been over the bay- sorry). For ideal case we need something to sweep from east - west between 5degree - 15degree latitude. Much of the clouds are escaping towards west.

Pradeep sir - 2012 SWM greatest falls (june - oct) is it MAHARASHTRA?

Thanks