SWM will retreat below the 19N line (including Mumbai), as indicated in the vagaries map, from Thursday night...most conditions are in favour.
As the SWM retreats Southwards, it leaves Maharashtra by Saturday 13th October.
An UAC can form in the Southern peninsula land region below 12N by Thursday, (due to perpendicular line of wind dis-continuity, caused by "falling axis"). Good precipitation is expected in the entire region below 12N due to this system on 11th, and moving into Kerala next day.
The NE Monsoon starts gearing up after the 14th of October.
Chennai winds remain South due to this, and changes direction from the 13th, after the UAC moves away westwards.
Parts of Mumbai City's Northern suburbs got light rain today.
Thunderclouds accumulated in the East and North today, with our readers reporting rain from outer townships like Thane, Badlapur, and a report by mail of light rainfall in Kalyan. Places recorded upto 12-15 mms.
Some of these thunderclouds drifted west towards the city. Scruz recorded 10 mms, vagaries 2 mms and Colaba 0 mms till 8.30pm Wednesday.
South of Mumbai, there were thundershowers at some places along the coast.
A low has formed in the Bay at 92E and 18N, near the Myanmar/Bangladesh coast....Is well marked as on wednesday evening, but at 1002 hpa..moves North into Bangladesh and fades away on land
Northern India is now seeing a gradual drop in night temperatures. The extreme North, Kashmir is seeing seasonal low temperatures at night, with Leh recording 0c, Gulmarg and Pahalgam 2c. Srinagar was 6.5c.In HP, Keylong is 2c and Kalpa 4c...
In the plains Gurgaon was 16.4c and Narnaul 15.7c. Dry weather next few days in North, with nights gradually dropping...
Mussoorie hill station had good showers yesterday with 17 mms of rain....